United States • Rates, growth and inflation

US Rates, Growth and Inflation

Data through 31 Jul 2026 fred-2026-08-03 Updated 08 Aug 2026 15:27

Do Treasury yields move before the Federal Reserve, or follow it?

Nominal GDP Growth (year over year)

Quarterly
6.53% Q2 2026 Year-over-year growth rate

CPI Inflation (year over year)

3.46% Jun 2026 Year-over-year growth rate

Effective Federal Funds Rate

3.63% Jul 2026 Monthly average of 22 observations

5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

4.33% Jul 2026 Monthly average of 21 observations

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

4.59% Jul 2026 Monthly average of 21 observations

Nominal GDP growth − Fed Funds

Quarterly
2.90% Q2 2026 Derived difference

Each card shows its own latest observation date. The series publish on different schedules, so nominal GDP is a quarterly figure and is never presented as a current monthly reading.

Rates, growth and inflation

Inflation is drawn as bars behind the lines; every series is a percentage on one shared axis, with a zero line so negative inflation and negative nominal growth stay visible.

241 periods
US rates, growth and inflation from Jul 2006 to Jul 2026. Series shown: CPI inflation, Effective Fed Funds Rate, 5-year Treasury, 10-year Treasury, Nominal GDP growth. All values are percentages on a shared axis. First cut Emergency cuts Near zero Liftoff Mid-cycle cut Pandemic cuts Hikes begin Final hike First cut
CPI inflationEffective Fed Funds5-year Treasury10-year TreasuryNominal GDP growthNBER recession

Yield-curve spreads

A negative 10Y−5Y or a Fed Funds rate above both yields is the classic inversion signal.

5Y − Fed Funds 0.70%
10Y − Fed Funds 0.96%
10Y − 5Y 0.27%
Nominal GDP − Fed Funds —

As at Jul 2026

Range summary

Averages across the selected window.

Fed Funds average1.72%
5-year average2.35%
10-year average2.90%
CPI inflation average2.54%
Nominal GDP growth average4.43%
Months with an inverted 10Y−5Y 20 of 241

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