United States • The Fed, Treasury yields and the economy
US Rates, Growth and Inflation
Last update: 01 Nov 2026
The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% in September 2026, its first increase since July 2023, with core PCE inflation, its target measure, at 3.1% in September 2026 against a 2% objective. The 10-year Treasury yield averaged 4.99% in September 2026, 0.87 percentage points higher than a year earlier; the real (TIPS) yield rose 0.89 percentage points and breakeven inflation was little changed.
The Treasury paid an average 3.53% on its interest-bearing debt in September 2026, against 3.36% a year earlier, and federal interest payments ran at $1.33 trillion a year in Q3 2026, more than national defense ($1.23 trillion). Foreign investors held $9.33 trillion of Treasury securities in August 2026; Japan, the largest holder, held $1.07 trillion, 11.4% of the foreign total and 19% below its November 2021 peak.
How the Federal Reserve's rate and balance sheet move Treasury yields, what the government pays to borrow, who holds the debt, and how rates sit against growth, jobs and inflation. To test how policy feeds through to prices, open the US inflation drivers research.
- Policy rate and yieldsSep 2026Federal Reserve H.15
- Fed balance sheetSep 2026H.4.1, last Wednesday
- InflationSep 2026BEA and BLS
- GDP and spendingQ3 2026BEA national accounts
- Rate on federal debtSep 2026Treasury Fiscal Data
- Foreign holdersAug 2026 (preliminary)Treasury TIC
- Next FOMC decision9 Dec 2026Federal Reserve calendar
3.75–4.00%
A year earlier: 3.75–4.00%
Oct 2026 · month-end · Federal Reserve
10-year Treasury yield
PublishedCore PCE inflation
PublishedAverage rate on federal debt
PublishedFed balance sheet
PublishedEach card shows its own latest period: the series publish on different schedules, so inflation trails the rates by a month and GDP by a quarter.
Featured
Policy rate, Treasury yields and inflation
The Fed sets the overnight rate; the 2-year yield prices where markets expect it to go, and the 10-year adds inflation risk and the term premium. Core PCE inflation, the Fed's target measure, is drawn as bars.
For example: A 2-year yield of 3.5% while the policy rate is 4% usually means markets expect the Fed to cut rates over the next two years.
Per cent
- Core PCE inflation
- Effective fed funds rate
- 2-year Treasury
- 10-year Treasury
- NBER recession
Between Jan 2006 and Sep 2026, the effective funds rate went from 4.30% to 3.75%, the 2-year yield went from 4.40% to 4.65%, the 10-year yield went from 4.42% to 4.99% and core PCE inflation went from 2.14% to 3.12%.
1 · Policy stance
Monetary policy stance
Real rate
Real policy rate
The effective funds rate minus 12-month inflation in the same month. Above zero, the Fed charges more than prices are rising.
For example: A funds rate of 4.5% with inflation of 2.5% is a real rate of +2%: money lent overnight earns 2 points more than prices rise.
Percentage points
Zero real rate
- Fed funds minus core PCE inflation
- Fed funds minus CPI inflation
- NBER recession
Benchmark
Taylor-rule benchmark for the policy rate
Taylor's rule: neutral real rate + inflation + half the gap to 2% + half the output gap, using core PCE and CBO's output gap. Two neutral rates show how much the answer depends on that assumption. A yardstick, not a forecast.
For example: With a 1% neutral real rate, 3% inflation and output 1% below potential, the rule gives 1 + 3 + 0.5 × (3 − 2) + 0.5 × (−1) = 4%.
Includes estimates
Per cent
- Effective fed funds rate (quarter average)
- Taylor rule, neutral real rate 0.5%
- Taylor rule, neutral real rate 2.0%
- NBER recession
Yield curve
Yield-curve spreads
Long minus short Treasury yields. Below zero the curve is inverted, which has preceded most recessions since the 1960s, though not every inversion was followed by one.
For example: A 10-year yield of 4% and a 3-month bill yield of 5% give a spread of −1 percentage point: the curve is inverted.
Percentage points
Inverted below zero
- 10-year minus 3-month
- 10-year minus 2-year
- NBER recession
Operating floor
Federal funds target range and interest on reserves
Since 2008 the Fed steers the funds rate by setting what it pays on reserves, which keeps the effective rate inside the target range.
For example: With a target range of 4.25%–4.50% the Fed might pay 4.40% on reserves; banks then have little reason to lend overnight for less, which holds the market rate inside the range.
Per cent
- Target range: top
- Target range: bottom
- Interest on reserves
- Effective fed funds rate
Inside the 10-year
Real yield, inflation compensation and term premium
The 10-year nominal yield is the TIPS real yield plus breakeven inflation (the bars add up to the line). The term premium is a model estimate of the extra return investors demand for lending long.
For example: A 10-year yield of 4.3% can be a 2.0% real yield plus 2.3% breakeven inflation, the average inflation rate investors are pricing in.
Includes estimates
Per cent
- Real (TIPS) yield
- Breakeven inflation
- 10-year Treasury yield
- Term premium (model estimate)
- Fed buying (QE)
- Maturity extension
- Holdings steady
- Fed shrinking (QT)
2 · Federal Reserve balance sheet
Quantitative easing, quantitative tightening and long-term yields
Holdings
Federal Reserve holdings: Treasuries, MBS and total assets
Treasury and mortgage-backed securities held outright, and total assets, at the last Wednesday of each month. Shading marks when the Fed was buying (QE) or letting securities run off (QT).
For example: If the Fed buys $80 billion of Treasuries a month during QE, the Treasury line rises by about $80 billion a month.
US$ trillion
- Treasury securities
- Mortgage-backed securities
- Total assets
- Fed buying (QE)
- Maturity extension
- Holdings steady
- Fed shrinking (QT)
Yields through each program
Long-term rates during QE and QT programs
The 10-year yield and the 30-year mortgage rate under each balance-sheet program. Over a whole program yields also move with the outlook, inflation and the policy rate: the panel below separates announcement-day moves from these broader trends.
For example: If the 10-year yield rose 1 point during a QE program while inflation was climbing, that rise alone does not show that QE pushed yields up.
Per cent
- 10-year Treasury yield
- 30-year mortgage rate
- Effective fed funds rate
- Fed buying (QE)
- Maturity extension
- Holdings steady
- Fed shrinking (QT)
Liquidity
Bank reserves and overnight reverse repos
When the Fed shrinks its holdings, the money it withdraws comes out of the overnight reverse repo facility or out of bank reserves; when it buys, reserves grow. The bars show where it sat each month.
For example: If the Fed lets $60 billion of bonds mature without reinvesting, $60 billion leaves either bank reserves or the reverse repo facility.
US$ trillion
- Bank reserves
- Overnight reverse repos
- Fed buying (QE)
- Maturity extension
- Holdings steady
- Fed shrinking (QT)
Fed income
Federal Reserve remittances and deferred asset
The Fed sends its profits to the Treasury. When the interest it pays on reserves and reverse repos exceeds what its securities earn, the losses build up as a deferred asset (below zero) that future profits must repay before remittances resume.
For example: If the Fed earns $150 billion a year on its securities but pays $200 billion on reserves and reverse repos, the $50 billion shortfall adds to the deferred asset.
US$ billion
- Remittances due (below zero: deferred asset)
3 · Federal borrowing cost
Interest cost of federal debt
Average rate
Average interest rate on federal debt and market yields
What the Treasury pays across its whole stock of debt, against today's market yields. While yields sit above the average, it keeps rising as old debt matures and is refinanced.
For example: If the Treasury owes $28 trillion at an average 3.3% and refinances $1 trillion of 1% debt at 4%, the average rises by about 0.1 point.
Per cent
- Average rate, all interest-bearing debt
- Average rate, marketable debt
- 10-year Treasury yield
- 3-month bill yield
By security
Average rate by type of security
Bills and floating-rate notes reset within months, so their average tracks the Fed; notes and bonds carry the coupons set when they were sold. TIPS coupons exclude the inflation adjustment to principal.
For example: A 10-year note sold in 2020 with a 0.7% coupon keeps paying 0.7% until it matures in 2030, however high market yields go.
Per cent
- Bills
- Notes
- Bonds
- Floating-rate notes
- TIPS (coupon)
Interest bill
Federal interest payments against defense spending
Both from the national accounts, at seasonally adjusted annual rates: each quarter's spending scaled up to a full year.
For example: A quarterly figure of $1,000 billion at an annual rate means about $250 billion was paid in that quarter.
US$ billion, annual rate
- Federal interest payments
- National defense spending
- NBER recession
Burden
Interest as a share of GDP and of federal receipts
Federal interest payments divided by GDP and by the government's current receipts, all national-accounts annual rates.
For example: Interest of $1 trillion when GDP is $30 trillion and receipts are $5 trillion is about 3.3% of GDP and 20% of receipts.
Per cent
- Interest as % of federal receipts
- Interest as % of GDP
- NBER recession
Repricing speed
Treasury bills as a share of marketable debt
The share of marketable debt in bills, which are refinanced within a year. The larger it is, the faster a change in short rates passes into what the Treasury pays.
For example: If bills are 20% of $28 trillion of marketable debt, a 1-point rise in short rates adds about $56 billion to the annual interest bill within a year.
% of marketable debt
- Bills as % of marketable debt
- NBER recession
In Sep 2026 marketable debt was $31.83T at an average 3.518%: about $1.12T a year in interest at that rate. Every percentage point more costs $318B a year once all of it has been refinanced; $78B of that arrives within a year through bills and floating-rate notes (24.6% of the debt). With the 10-year at 4.99% and the 3-month bill at 4.09%, new borrowing costs more than the average, so the average is likely to keep rising as debt rolls over. Arithmetic on published amounts, not a forecast.
4 · Treasury holders
Foreign and domestic holders of Treasury debt
By country
Largest foreign holders of Treasuries
Holdings by country of the custodian, from Treasury's TIC system. Belgium, Luxembourg, the UK, Cayman Islands and other financial centres hold securities owned by investors elsewhere.
For example: Treasuries owned by an investor in the Gulf but kept in a Belgian custody account are recorded under Belgium.
US$ billion
- Japan
- United Kingdom
- China (mainland)
- Belgium
- Canada
- Cayman Islands
Official and private
Foreign official and private holdings
Foreign official institutions (central banks, sovereign funds) against everyone else abroad, from the same TIC table.
For example: Treasuries held in the Bank of Japan's reserves count as official; those held by a Japanese pension fund count as private.
Includes provisional data
US$ trillion
- Foreign official institutions
- Foreign private investors
- All foreign holders
By sector
Ownership of debt held by the public, by sector
Shares held by the Federal Reserve, foreign and international investors and domestic private investors (banks, funds, pensions, households), from the Treasury Bulletin's ownership table.
For example: If the public holds $28 trillion of debt and the Fed owns $4.2 trillion of it, the Fed's share is 15%.
% of debt held by the public
- Federal Reserve
- Foreign and international
- Domestic private
5 · Rates, spending and growth
Interest costs, federal spending and growth
Fiscal years
Federal outlays: net interest and primary spending
The budget's fiscal-year outlays (Office of Management and Budget) as a share of GDP, split into net interest and primary outlays (everything else), with receipts as the line. The gap between the bars' top and the line is the deficit.
For example: Outlays of 23% of GDP, of which 3% is net interest, against receipts of 17% leave a deficit of 6% of GDP.
% of GDP, fiscal years
- Primary outlays (all but interest)
- Net interest
- Receipts
Growth
Government spending's contribution to real GDP growth
Percentage points of real GDP growth that came from federal and from state and local consumption and investment; the line is all government. Interest payments are transfers, not purchases, so they are not in GDP. Real GDP growth itself is in the next section.
For example: If real GDP grew 2.5% and government purchases contributed 0.5 point, the rest of the economy contributed the other 2 points.
Percentage points of real GDP growth, annual rate
- Federal government
- State and local government
- All government
- NBER recession
6 · The dual mandate
Inflation, jobs and growth
Prices
PCE and CPI inflation against the 2% objective
The Fed's objective is 2% inflation measured by the PCE price index; CPI is shown for comparison. See which prices are moving in the US inflation watch topic.
For example: Core PCE inflation of 2.8% means the Fed's preferred measure is running 0.8 point above its objective.
Per cent, 12-month change
2% objective
- Core PCE
- PCE
- CPI
- NBER recession
Jobs
Unemployment rate and the natural rate
The unemployment rate against CBO's estimate of the rate consistent with stable inflation. Below the line, the labour market is tighter than that estimate.
For example: An unemployment rate of 3.8% against a natural rate of 4.4% means the labour market is tighter than CBO's estimate of what is consistent with stable inflation.
Includes estimates
Per cent
- Unemployment rate (quarter average)
- CBO natural rate (estimate)
- NBER recession
Growth
GDP growth and the policy rate
When nominal GDP grows faster than the policy rate, borrowing costs are low relative to incomes; when the policy rate is above it, policy is restraining spending.
For example: If nominal GDP grows 5% and the funds rate is 4%, incomes are growing faster than the cost of short-term borrowing.
Per cent
- Nominal GDP growth, year over year
- Real GDP growth, year over year
- Effective fed funds rate (quarter average)
- NBER recession
QE, QT and rate moves
Treasury yields around QE, QT and rate decisions
Two ways to read the same history. Over a whole program, yields also respond to recessions, inflation and the outlook, so the change over the window is not the program's effect. On the days the Fed announced a program, little else moved bond prices, so those moves are closer to its effect: the approach most Fed and academic studies use. Changes are in percentage points over windows and in basis points (hundredths of a point) around announcements.
Around the 20 balance-sheet announcements that added accommodation, the 10-year yield fell over two days in 14 and rose in 6, a median move of −8 bp. Around the 10 that removed it (tapering and runoff), it rose in 7 and fell in 2, a median of +3 bp. The largest combined fall came with QE1 (2008–10): −107 bp across 5 announcements. Yet over the full windows of QE1 (2008–10), QE2 (2010–11), QE3 (2012–14), QE4 (2020–22), Reserve management (2025–), the 10-year ended higher than it began: the outlook, inflation and the policy rate moved too. Announcement-day moves are associations around dated news, and markets often moved earlier, as they anticipated the decisions.
Over each program
From the month before each program began to its last month: the change in the Fed's holdings and in each rate. Read the rate columns together with the policy rate, which moved in several of these windows.
| Program | Months | Fed Treasuries + MBS | Policy rate | 2-year | 10-year | Real 10-year | Breakeven | Term premium | Mortgage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QE1Fed buying | Dec 2008 – Mar 2010 | +$1,369B | −0.23 | −0.25 | +0.20 | −1.38 | +1.58 | +0.03 | −1.12 |
| QE2Fed buying | Nov 2010 – Jun 2011 | +$637B | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.46 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.26 | +0.29 |
| Maturity extensionLengthening maturity | Oct 2011 – Dec 2012 | +$48B | +0.08 | +0.05 | −0.26 | −0.84 | +0.58 | −0.19 | −0.76 |
| QE3Fed buying | Sep 2012 – Oct 2014 | +$1,696B | −0.04 | +0.18 | +0.63 | +0.97 | −0.34 | +0.47 | +0.43 |
| ReinvestmentHoldings steady | Nov 2014 – Sep 2017 | +$54B | +1.07 | +0.94 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.27 | −0.23 |
| QT1Fed shrinking holdings | Oct 2017 – Jul 2019 | −$641B | +1.25 | +0.45 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.29 | −0.04 |
| Reserve managementFed buying | Oct 2019 – Feb 2020 | +$271B | −0.47 | −0.32 | −0.20 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.14 |
| QE4Fed buying | Mar 2020 – Feb 2022 | +$4,614B | −1.50 | +0.10 | +0.43 | −0.41 | +0.84 | +0.53 | +0.30 |
| QT2Fed shrinking holdings | Jun 2022 – Nov 2025 | −$2,232B | +3.12 | +0.93 | +1.20 | +1.62 | −0.42 | −0.03 | +1.01 |
| Reserve managementFed buying | Dec 2025 – Sep 2026 | +$217B | −0.13 | +1.10 | +0.90 | +0.81 | +0.08 | +0.48 | +0.63 |
On announcement days
The two-day change runs from the close the day before each announcement to the close the day after, which also catches the press conference. Totals add up a program's announcements, the usual way to size it.
| Program | Announcements | 10-year, total | 2-year, total | Term premium, total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes (2004–06) | 1 | −13 bp | −19 bp | −6 bp |
| Cuts (2007–08) | 1 | +5 bp | −8 bp | +3 bp |
| QE1 (2008–10) | 5 | −107 bp | −44 bp | −52 bp |
| QE2 (2010–11) | 3 | −40 bp | −4 bp | −19 bp |
| Maturity extension (2011–12) | 2 | −24 bp | +4 bp | −6 bp |
| QE3 (2012–14) | 2 | +19 bp | +5 bp | +8 bp |
| Taper (2013–14) | 4 | +40 bp | +13 bp | +22 bp |
| Hikes (2015–18) | 1 | −4 bp | +2 bp | +1 bp |
| QT1 (2017–19) | 4 | −25 bp | −15 bp | −10 bp |
| Reserve management (2019–20) | 1 | +10 bp | +8 bp | +7 bp |
| Pandemic cuts (2020) | 1 | −8 bp | −17 bp | +1 bp |
| QE4 (2020–22) | 2 | 0 bp | −1 bp | −5 bp |
| Taper (2021–22) | 2 | −3 bp | −8 bp | −3 bp |
| QT2 (2022–25) | 5 | +7 bp | −3 bp | +1 bp |
| Hikes (2022–23) | 1 | +5 bp | +9 bp | +4 bp |
| Cuts (2024) | 1 | +8 bp | 0 bp | +6 bp |
| Cuts (2025) | 1 | +7 bp | +6 bp | +4 bp |
| Reserve management (2025–) | 1 | −4 bp | −9 bp | −1 bp |
| Hike (2026) | 1 | −6 bp | 0 bp | −2 bp |
Every announcement, its source and the yields around it
| Date | Announcement | 2-year | 10-year, day | 10-year, 2 days | 30-year | Real 10-year | Breakeven | Term premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | FOMC raises the target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent: first increase since 2023Hike (2026) · removes accommodation | 0 bp | +1 bp | −6 bp | −7 bp | −1 bp | −5 bp | −2 bp |
| 10 Dec 2025 | FOMC cuts the target range to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent and starts buying shorter-term Treasuries to keep reserves ampleReserve management (2025–) · adds accommodation | −9 bp | −5 bp | −4 bp | −1 bp | −3 bp | −1 bp | −1 bp |
| 29 Oct 2025 | FOMC cuts the target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent and will stop shrinking its holdings on 1 DecemberQT2 (2022–25) · adds accommodation | +14 bp | +9 bp | +12 bp | +10 bp | +11 bp | +1 bp | +5 bp |
| 17 Sep 2025 | FOMC lowers the target range to 4 to 4-1/4 percent: first cut since December 2024Cuts (2025) · adds accommodation | +6 bp | +2 bp | +7 bp | +7 bp | +6 bp | +1 bp | +4 bp |
| 19 Mar 2025 | FOMC cuts the Treasury runoff cap from $25 billion to $5 billion a month from AprilQT2 (2022–25) · adds accommodation | −9 bp | −4 bp | −5 bp | −3 bp | −6 bp | +1 bp | −3 bp |
| 18 Sep 2024 | FOMC lowers the target range by 1/2 point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent: first cut since 2020Cuts (2024) · adds accommodation | 0 bp | +5 bp | +8 bp | +10 bp | +3 bp | +5 bp | +6 bp |
| 1 May 2024 | FOMC cuts the Treasury runoff cap from $60 billion to $25 billion a month from JuneQT2 (2022–25) · adds accommodation | −17 bp | −6 bp | −11 bp | −7 bp | −7 bp | −4 bp | −5 bp |
| 4 May 2022 | FOMC sets runoff caps from June rising to $95 billion a monthQT2 (2022–25) · removes accommodation | −7 bp | −4 bp | +8 bp | +12 bp | +4 bp | +4 bp | +2 bp |
| 16 Mar 2022 | FOMC raises the target range to 1/4 to 1/2 percent: first increase since 2018Hikes (2022–23) · removes accommodation | +9 bp | +4 bp | +5 bp | +1 bp | −2 bp | +7 bp | +4 bp |
| 26 Jan 2022 | FOMC publishes principles for reducing the size of the balance sheetQT2 (2022–25) · removes accommodation | +16 bp | +7 bp | +3 bp | −3 bp | +4 bp | −1 bp | +3 bp |
| 15 Dec 2021 | FOMC doubles the pace of reduction to $30 billion a monthTaper (2021–22) · removes accommodation | −3 bp | +3 bp | 0 bp | +5 bp | −5 bp | +5 bp | −1 bp |
| 3 Nov 2021 | FOMC starts reducing net purchases by $15 billion a monthTaper (2021–22) · removes accommodation | −5 bp | +4 bp | −3 bp | 0 bp | −8 bp | +5 bp | −2 bp |
| 23 Mar 2020 | FOMC will buy Treasuries and agency MBS in the amounts neededQE4 (2020–22) · adds accommodation | +1 bp | −16 bp | −8 bp | −16 bp | −30 bp | +22 bp | −7 bp |
| 15 Mar 2020 | FOMC cuts the target range to 0 to 1/4 percent and announces $700 billion of purchasesQE4 (2020–22) · adds accommodation | −2 bp | −21 bp | +8 bp | +7 bp | +35 bp | −27 bp | +2 bp |
| 3 Mar 2020 | FOMC lowers the target range by 1/2 point to 1 to 1-1/4 percent between meetingsPandemic cuts (2020) · adds accommodation | −17 bp | −8 bp | −8 bp | +1 bp | −13 bp | +5 bp | +1 bp |
| 11 Oct 2019 | Fed will buy Treasury bills to keep reserves at or above early-September levelsReserve management (2019–20) · adds accommodation | +8 bp | +9 bp | +10 bp | +7 bp | +6 bp | +4 bp | +7 bp |
| 31 Jul 2019 | FOMC cuts the target range to 2 to 2-1/4 percent and ends runoff two months earlyQT1 (2017–19) · adds accommodation | −12 bp | −4 bp | −16 bp | −14 bp | −8 bp | −8 bp | −6 bp |
| 20 Mar 2019 | FOMC plans to slow runoff from May and stop it at the end of SeptemberQT1 (2017–19) · adds accommodation | −5 bp | −7 bp | −7 bp | −6 bp | −8 bp | +1 bp | −4 bp |
| 20 Sep 2017 | FOMC says balance-sheet runoff begins in OctoberQT1 (2017–19) · removes accommodation | +5 bp | +4 bp | +3 bp | −1 bp | +7 bp | −4 bp | +2 bp |
| 14 Jun 2017 | FOMC publishes the caps it will use to shrink its securities holdingsQT1 (2017–19) · removes accommodation | −3 bp | −6 bp | −5 bp | −9 bp | +3 bp | −8 bp | −2 bp |
| 16 Dec 2015 | FOMC raises the target range to 1/4 to 1/2 percent: first increase since 2006Hikes (2015–18) · removes accommodation | +2 bp | +2 bp | −4 bp | −6 bp | −3 bp | −1 bp | +1 bp |
| 29 Oct 2014 | FOMC concludes its asset purchase programTaper (2013–14) · removes accommodation | +6 bp | +4 bp | +2 bp | −2 bp | +3 bp | −1 bp | +3 bp |
| 18 Dec 2013 | FOMC trims purchases by $10 billion a monthTaper (2013–14) · removes accommodation | +1 bp | +4 bp | +9 bp | +3 bp | +12 bp | −3 bp | +4 bp |
| 19 Jun 2013 | FOMC meeting at which the Chairman outlines a timetable for slowing purchasesTaper (2013–14) · removes accommodation | +6 bp | +13 bp | +21 bp | +15 bp | +32 bp | −11 bp | +11 bp |
| 22 May 2013 | Chairman Bernanke tells Congress purchases could slow in the next few meetingsTaper (2013–14) · removes accommodation | 0 bp | +9 bp | +8 bp | +6 bp | +10 bp | −2 bp | +4 bp |
| 12 Dec 2012 | FOMC adds longer-term Treasury purchases of $45 billion a monthQE3 (2012–14) · adds accommodation | +3 bp | +6 bp | +8 bp | +7 bp | +11 bp | −3 bp | +4 bp |
| 13 Sep 2012 | FOMC starts open-ended agency MBS purchases of $40 billion a monthQE3 (2012–14) · adds accommodation | +2 bp | −2 bp | +11 bp | +17 bp | −15 bp | +26 bp | +4 bp |
| 20 Jun 2012 | FOMC extends the maturity extension program through the end of 2012Maturity extension (2011–12) · adds accommodation | +2 bp | +1 bp | −1 bp | −5 bp | +6 bp | −7 bp | +1 bp |
| 21 Sep 2011 | FOMC will buy $400 billion of 6- to 30-year Treasuries and sell an equal amount of shorter onesMaturity extension (2011–12) · adds accommodation | +2 bp | −7 bp | −23 bp | −42 bp | −3 bp | −20 bp | −7 bp |
| 3 Nov 2010 | FOMC announces $600 billion of longer-term Treasury purchases by mid-2011QE2 (2010–11) · adds accommodation | −1 bp | +4 bp | −10 bp | +11 bp | −5 bp | −5 bp | −6 bp |
| 21 Sep 2010 | FOMC says it is prepared to provide additional accommodationQE2 (2010–11) · adds accommodation | −3 bp | −11 bp | −16 bp | −13 bp | −20 bp | +4 bp | −7 bp |
| 10 Aug 2010 | FOMC reinvests principal from agency securities in longer-term TreasuriesQE2 (2010–11) · adds accommodation | 0 bp | −7 bp | −14 bp | −8 bp | −9 bp | −5 bp | −6 bp |
| 18 Mar 2009 | FOMC adds $300 billion of longer-term Treasuries and raises agency MBS purchases to $1.25 trillionQE1 (2008–10) · adds accommodation | −18 bp | −51 bp | −41 bp | −21 bp | −59 bp | +18 bp | −22 bp |
| 28 Jan 2009 | FOMC says it is prepared to buy longer-term Treasuries but does not startQE1 (2008–10) · adds accommodation | +8 bp | +12 bp | +28 bp | +31 bp | +6 bp | +22 bp | +10 bp |
| 16 Dec 2008 | FOMC cuts the target range to 0 to 1/4 percent and says it is evaluating Treasury purchasesQE1 (2008–10) · adds accommodation | −2 bp | −16 bp | −33 bp | −32 bp | −57 bp | +24 bp | −13 bp |
| 1 Dec 2008 | Chairman Bernanke says the Fed could buy longer-term Treasury securitiesQE1 (2008–10) · adds accommodation | −10 bp | −21 bp | −25 bp | −27 bp | −34 bp | +9 bp | −14 bp |
| 25 Nov 2008 | Fed announces purchases of up to $100 billion of GSE debt and $500 billion of agency MBSQE1 (2008–10) · adds accommodation | −22 bp | −24 bp | −36 bp | −24 bp | −43 bp | +7 bp | −12 bp |
| 18 Sep 2007 | FOMC lowers the federal funds target by 1/2 point to 4-3/4 percent: first cut of the cycleCuts (2007–08) · adds accommodation | −8 bp | +2 bp | +5 bp | +11 bp | 0 bp | +5 bp | +3 bp |
| 30 Jun 2004 | FOMC raises the federal funds target to 1-1/4 percent: first increase of the cycleHikes (2004–06) · removes accommodation | −19 bp | −8 bp | −13 bp | −9 bp | −16 bp | +3 bp | −6 bp |
A dash means that series was not published on all three trading days (TIPS and breakevens start in 2003; the 30-year was not issued from 2002 to 2006). Dates that carried a rate decision and a balance-sheet decision are counted once. Announcement days are the cleanest evidence available, but markets often anticipated the news, so part of each program's effect happened before its announcement and is missing here.
Tightening and easing cycles
Timing of Treasury yields and Fed rate turns
For each policy cycle since 1962, the month the Fed's rate turned is set beside the first month each Treasury yield began a sustained move the same way, and beside how far the yields moved by the time the cycle peaked. A positive lead means the bond market moved first: for example, a lead of 4 months means a yield began its sustained move 4 months before the Fed's rate turned.
| Cycle | Fed move began | 5-year began | 10-year began | 5-year lead | 10-year lead | 5-year over the cycle | 10-year over the cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tightening Mar 2022 – Aug 2024Funds rate 0.08% → 5.33% | Mar 2022 | Jan 2021 | Aug 2020 | +14 mo | +19 mo | +1.90 pts | +1.94 pts |
| Easing Nov 2019 – Apr 2020Funds rate 1.83% → 0.05% | Nov 2019 | Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | +12 mo | +12 mo | −1.14 pts | −1.05 pts |
| Tightening Dec 2015 – Apr 2019Funds rate 0.12% → 2.42% | Dec 2015 | Aug 2016 | Aug 2016 | −8 mo | −8 mo | +0.66 pts | +0.27 pts |
| Easing Sep 2007 – Jan 2010Funds rate 5.04% → 0.12% | Sep 2007 | Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | +2 mo | +1 mo | −1.95 pts | −0.94 pts |
| Tightening Jul 2004 – Feb 2007Funds rate 1.03% → 5.27% | Jul 2004 | Nov 2004 | Not detected | −4 mo | — | +0.78 pts | −0.01 pts |
| Easing Nov 2002 – Dec 2003Funds rate 1.76% → 0.99% | Nov 2002 | Dec 2000 | Dec 2000 | +23 mo | +23 mo | +0.32 pts | +0.33 pts |
| Easing Jan 2001 – Mar 2002Funds rate 6.45% → 1.73% | Jan 2001 | Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | +7 mo | +7 mo | −0.43 pts | +0.04 pts |
| Tightening Aug 1999 – Jun 2000Funds rate 4.99% → 6.53% | Aug 1999 | Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | +6 mo | +6 mo | +0.62 pts | +0.31 pts |
| Tightening Sep 1993 – Apr 1995Funds rate 3.03% → 6.05% | Sep 1993 | Jan 1992 | Dec 1993 | +20 mo | −3 mo | +1.84 pts | +1.38 pts |
| Easing Oct 1989 – Dec 1992Funds rate 9.02% → 2.92% | Oct 1989 | Nov 1987 | Nov 1987 | +23 mo | +23 mo | −2.10 pts | −1.42 pts |
| Tightening May 1988 – Mar 1989Funds rate 6.87% → 9.85% | May 1988 | Feb 1987 | Feb 1987 | +15 mo | +15 mo | +1.32 pts | +0.64 pts |
| Tightening May 1987 – Oct 1987Funds rate 6.37% → 7.29% | May 1987 | Feb 1987 | Feb 1987 | +3 mo | +3 mo | +1.51 pts | +1.50 pts |
| Easing Jul 1986 – Oct 1986Funds rate 6.92% → 5.85% | Jul 1986 | Aug 1984 | Aug 1984 | +23 mo | +23 mo | −0.81 pts | −0.37 pts |
| Tightening Jun 1984 – Aug 1984Funds rate 10.32% → 11.64% | Jun 1984 | Jun 1983 | Jun 1983 | +12 mo | +12 mo | −0.49 pts | −0.69 pts |
| Easing Nov 1982 – Feb 1983Funds rate 9.71% → 8.51% | Nov 1982 | Oct 1981 | Oct 1981 | +13 mo | +13 mo | −0.54 pts | −0.18 pts |
| Tightening Jan 1982 – Apr 1982Funds rate 12.37% → 14.94% | Jan 1982 | Jul 1980 | Jul 1980 | +18 mo | +18 mo | +0.40 pts | +0.15 pts |
| Tightening Nov 1980 – Jun 1981Funds rate 12.81% → 19.10% | Nov 1980 | Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | +16 mo | +16 mo | +2.09 pts | +1.72 pts |
| Tightening Aug 1977 – Apr 1980Funds rate 5.42% → 17.61% | Aug 1977 | Dec 1977 | Oct 1977 | −4 mo | −2 mo | +5.00 pts | +4.14 pts |
| Easing Feb 1975 – Feb 1976Funds rate 7.13% → 4.77% | Feb 1975 | Sep 1974 | Oct 1975 | +5 mo | −8 mo | +0.04 pts | +0.29 pts |
| Tightening Apr 1974 – Jul 1974Funds rate 9.35% → 12.92% | Apr 1974 | Jun 1972 | Dec 1972 | +22 mo | +16 mo | +1.06 pts | +0.60 pts |
| Tightening Sep 1972 – Sep 1973Funds rate 4.81% → 10.78% | Sep 1972 | Apr 1971 | Apr 1971 | +17 mo | +17 mo | +1.03 pts | +0.88 pts |
| Easing Oct 1971 – Feb 1972Funds rate 5.55% → 3.30% | Oct 1971 | Jun 1970 | Sep 1970 | +16 mo | +13 mo | −0.45 pts | −0.06 pts |
| Easing Mar 1970 – Mar 1971Funds rate 8.98% → 3.71% | Mar 1970 | Jun 1970 | Sep 1970 | −3 mo | −6 mo | −2.82 pts | −1.53 pts |
| Tightening Dec 1968 – Aug 1969Funds rate 5.82% → 9.19% | Dec 1968 | May 1967 | Apr 1967 | +19 mo | +20 mo | +1.37 pts | +1.00 pts |
| Tightening Feb 1968 – May 1968Funds rate 4.61% → 6.12% | Feb 1968 | May 1966 | May 1966 | +21 mo | +21 mo | +0.50 pts | +0.34 pts |
| Tightening Feb 1962 – Nov 1966Funds rate 2.15% → 5.76% | Feb 1962 | Not detected | Not detected | — | — | +1.43 pts | +1.07 pts |
The rule, and why this is not proof
Rule used. A sustained move is a change of at least 0.50 percentage points over 3 months, or 3 consecutive monthly moves in the same direction of at least 0.02 points each. Cycles are found from the effective funds rate itself and must move it by at least 0.75 percentage points; leads are counted in months. Yield changes run from the month before the Fed's first move to the month the policy rate peaked or bottomed.
A different threshold moves some of these dates. Both the bond market and the Federal Reserve respond to the same incoming data, and the Fed signals its intentions in advance, so a yield moving first does not mean it caused the policy change. Long yields can also move against policy for months at a time.
Foreign holders
Changes in foreign holdings by country
Every country in Treasury's latest major-holders table: what it holds, its share of all foreign holdings, and how that has changed over one and five years and since its peak. TIC records securities by the country of the custodian, so a financial centre such as Belgium (home of Euroclear), Luxembourg or the Cayman Islands holds Treasuries on behalf of investors elsewhere: their moves are not those countries' own decisions.
Japan is the largest holder with $1.07T, 11.4% of all foreign holdings in Aug 2026, against 12.8% a year earlier. China (mainland) holds 55.1% less than at its Nov 2013 peak of $1.32T. At a record since December 2011: United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg. Changes mix buying and selling with price moves, because holdings are valued at market prices.
| Holder | Holdings | Share of foreign | Share a year earlier | 12 months | 5 years | Peak since Dec 2011 | Below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | $1.07TP | 11.4% | 12.8% | −$115.6B−9.8% | −$251.4B−19.0% | $1.33TNov 2021 | −19.4% |
| United KingdomCustody centre | $1.01TP | 10.8% | 9.7% | +$108.2B+12.0% | +$440.6B+77.4% | $1.01TAug 2026 | At peak |
| China (mainland) | $590.7BP | 6.3% | 7.6% | −$109.0B−15.6% | −$456.3B−43.6% | $1.32TNov 2013 | −55.1% |
| BelgiumCustody centre | $490.5BP | 5.3% | 4.9% | +$39.4B+8.7% | +$262.8B+115.4% | $490.5BAug 2026 | At peak |
| Canada | $464.6BP | 5.0% | 4.8% | +$20.6B+4.6% | +$295.4B+174.6% | $476.1BSep 2025 | −2.4% |
| Cayman IslandsCustody centre | $463.0BP | 5.0% | 4.4% | +$52.5B+12.8% | +$199.5B+75.7% | $471.6BApr 2026 | −1.8% |
| LuxembourgCustody centre | $448.2BP | 4.8% | 4.4% | +$37.4B+9.1% | +$154.0B+52.3% | $448.2BAug 2026 | At peak |
| France | $363.4BP | 3.9% | 4.2% | −$25.7B−6.6% | +$125.3B+52.6% | $395.1BFeb 2026 | −8.0% |
| IrelandCustody centre | $352.1BP | 3.8% | 3.7% | +$12.1B+3.6% | +$25.7B+7.9% | $357.2BMay 2026 | −1.4% |
| Taiwan | $298.4BP | 3.2% | 3.4% | −$15.0B−4.8% | +$61.2B+25.8% | $313.5BFeb 2026 | −4.8% |
| SwitzerlandCustody centre | $285.8BP | 3.1% | 3.3% | −$17.2B−5.7% | −$6.8B−2.3% | $311.7BMar 2025 | −8.3% |
| Singapore | $277.9BP | 3.0% | 2.8% | +$16.9B+6.5% | +$86.4B+45.1% | $284.4BJun 2026 | −2.3% |
| Hong Kong | $261.5BP | 2.8% | 2.7% | +$9.6B+3.8% | +$42.0B+19.1% | $278.3BMar 2026 | −6.0% |
| India | $219.7BP | 2.4% | 2.4% | +$0.3B+0.1% | +$2.7B+1.2% | $247.2BSep 2024 | −11.1% |
| Norway | $214.0BP | 2.3% | 2.3% | −$0.9B−0.4% | +$94.1B+78.5% | $223.0BFeb 2026 | −4.0% |
| Brazil | $168.4BP | 1.8% | 2.0% | −$16.2B−8.8% | −$80.5B−32.3% | $317.8BAug 2018 | −47.0% |
| Saudi Arabia | $141.2BP | 1.5% | 1.4% | +$8.2B+6.2% | +$17.1B+13.8% | $184.4BFeb 2020 | −23.4% |
| South Korea | $134.2BP | 1.4% | 1.5% | −$1.6B−1.2% | +$5.2B+4.0% | $145.1BNov 2025 | −7.5% |
| United Arab Emirates | $116.1BP | 1.2% | 1.2% | +$7.4B+6.8% | +$57.4B+97.8% | $120.0BFeb 2026 | −3.3% |
| BermudaCustody centre | $111.8BP | 1.2% | 1.1% | +$12.9B+13.0% | +$41.6B+59.3% | $123.6BAug 2013 | −9.5% |
| IsraelLast listed Dec 2025 | $105.7B | 1.1% | 1.0% | +$23.6B+28.7% | +$57.0B+117.0% | $110.0BOct 2025 | −3.9% |
| GermanyLast listed Dec 2025 | $103.1B | 1.1% | 1.1% | +$5.9B+6.1% | +$27.7B+36.7% | $114.5BOct 2025 | −10.0% |
| El SalvadorLast listed Dec 2025 | $93.8B | 1.0% | — | — | — | $93.8BDec 2025 | At peak |
| MexicoLast listed Dec 2025 | $85.4B | 0.9% | 1.2% | −$17.2B−16.8% | +$36.0B+72.9% | $102.7BFeb 2025 | −16.8% |
| ThailandLast listed Dec 2025 | $82.8B | 0.9% | 0.8% | +$12.8B+18.3% | +$2.8B+3.5% | $96.0BJan 2020 | −13.8% |
| SpainLast listed Dec 2025 | $73.6B | 0.8% | 0.7% | +$14.5B+24.5% | +$38.3B+108.5% | $82.3BNov 2025 | −10.6% |
| AustraliaLast listed Dec 2025 | $72.3B | 0.8% | 0.8% | +$5.0B+7.4% | +$32.5B+81.7% | $75.1BNov 2025 | −3.7% |
| NetherlandsLast listed Dec 2025 | $70.0B | 0.8% | 0.9% | −$8.6B−10.9% | +$0.3B+0.4% | $90.9BMar 2025 | −23.0% |
| KuwaitLast listed Dec 2025 | $66.1B | 0.7% | 0.6% | +$15.8B+31.4% | +$19.5B+41.8% | $66.1BDec 2025 | At peak |
| ItalyLast listed Dec 2025 | $62.1B | 0.7% | 0.7% | +$2.3B+3.8% | +$23.0B+58.8% | $65.5BNov 2025 | −5.2% |
| PhilippinesLast listed Dec 2025 | $62.0B | 0.7% | 0.7% | −$0.8B−1.3% | +$18.7B+43.2% | $64.7BSep 2024 | −4.2% |
| PolandLast listed Dec 2025 | $60.5B | 0.7% | 0.6% | +$7.8B+14.8% | +$10.0B+19.8% | $67.2BJul 2025 | −10.0% |
| TurkeyLast listed Dec 2017 | $52.6B | 0.8% | 1.0% | −$6.5B−11.0% | −$5.0B−8.7% | $82.4BJan 2015 | −36.2% |
| SwedenLast listed Dec 2025 | $50.1B | 0.5% | 0.6% | +$0.9B+1.8% | +$9.8B+24.3% | $55.9BMar 2025 | −10.4% |
| PeruLast listed Dec 2025 | $45.1B | 0.5% | 0.5% | +$1.4B+3.2% | — | $45.1BDec 2025 | At peak |
| ColombiaLast listed Dec 2025 | $44.2B | 0.5% | 0.5% | −$1.7B−3.7% | +$13.2B+42.6% | $48.2BSep 2024 | −8.3% |
| BahamasCustody centreLast listed Dec 2024 | $43.8B | 0.5% | — | — | — | $49.9BAug 2024 | −12.2% |
| IraqLast listed Dec 2022 | $40.8B | 0.6% | — | — | +$20.1B+97.1% | $49.6BApr 2013 | −17.7% |
| ChileLast listed Dec 2025 | $39.6B | 0.4% | 0.4% | +$5.3B+15.5% | — | $43.3BJul 2023 | −8.5% |
| IndonesiaLast listed Dec 2024 | $32.0B | 0.4% | — | — | −$0.2B−0.6% | $38.2BJan 2012 | −16.2% |
| VietnamLast listed Dec 2023 | $30.7B | 0.4% | 0.5% | −$6.2B−16.8% | +$10.8B+54.3% | $45.2BSep 2021 | −32.1% |
| EgyptLast listed Dec 2019 | $21.0B | 0.3% | 0.3% | −$0.6B−2.8% | — | $21.8BMar 2019 | −3.7% |
| DenmarkLast listed Dec 2019 | $16.9B | 0.2% | 0.3% | +$0.5B+3.0% | +$0.2B+1.2% | $23.8BApr 2016 | −29.0% |
| MalaysiaLast listed Dec 2019 | $14.3B | 0.2% | 0.2% | +$1.9B+15.3% | — | $20.9BFeb 2012 | −31.6% |
| South AfricaLast listed Dec 2019 | $13.8B | 0.2% | 0.2% | +$3.3B+31.4% | — | $26.7BApr 2018 | −48.3% |
| RussiaLast listed Dec 2018 | $13.2B | 0.2% | 1.7% | −$89.3B−87.1% | −$125.4B−90.5% | $171.1BOct 2012 | −92.3% |
| OmanLast listed Dec 2017 | $11.7B | 0.2% | 0.2% | −$2.6B−18.2% | −$6.0B−33.9% | $24.0BApr 2015 | −51.3% |
| KazakhstanLast listed Dec 2018 | $11.5B | 0.2% | 0.3% | −$5.9B−33.9% | −$17.7B−60.6% | $36.1BAug 2014 | −68.1% |
| FinlandLast listed Dec 2016 | $11.2B | 0.2% | — | — | — | $11.3BOct 2016 | −0.9% |
| UruguayLast listed Dec 2014 | $10.5B | 0.2% | 0.2% | −$0.2B−1.9% | — | $10.7BDec 2013 | −1.9% |
How to read TIC holdings
Holdings are at market value at each month-end, so a rise in yields lowers them even when nobody sells; compare a holder's change with the all-holder total for the same months. The latest month is preliminary and revised in later releases. Before December 2011 Treasury estimated holdings from annual surveys plus monthly transactions, with a break each June when a new survey was folded in; the table and peaks use December 2011 onward. Countries enter and leave the major-holders table, so a holder can have gaps. China's holdings through Belgium or other custodians are counted under those countries, which is why mainland China's figure understates what Chinese investors own.
Interest and spending
Interest costs and other federal spending
Federal outlays, as a share of GDP, split exactly into net interest and everything else (primary outlays: defense, Social Security, Medicare and the rest). If higher rates were crowding out other spending, interest would rise while primary outlays fell. The second part shows what government purchases added to real GDP growth over the same years; interest is a transfer to bondholders, so it is not counted in GDP itself.
Pushed spending up+1.67 pts
- Net interest1.5% → 3.2% of GDP+1.67 pts+0.42 pts a year
Pulled spending down−7.63 pts
- Primary outlays (all other spending)27.3% → 19.6% of GDP−7.63 pts−1.91 pts a year
Points are percentage points of GDP. Up +1.67 pts and down −7.63 pts add up to −5.96 pts, the published change in outlays. Yearly rates spread the total over the 4 years.
Net interest rose 1.67 points of GDP while all other spending fell 7.63 points: total outlays fell, and interest took a larger share of them. FY 2021's primary outlays were 7.60 points of GDP above their average for FY 2006–FY 2015, so part of the change is temporary spending ending, not a squeeze; compare with the other base year. Receipts fell 0.04 points, so the deficit narrowed by 5.92 points of GDP. Over the 16 quarters, government purchases added 0.44 points a year on average to real GDP growth (federal +0.08 pts, state and local +0.36 pts); real GDP grew 2.7% a year. These are accounting identities, not estimates of what rates caused.
Every fiscal year, and the source rows
| Fiscal year | Outlays | Net interest | Primary | Receipts | Deficit | Interest share of outlays | Average rate, Sep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | 22.8% | 3.2% | 19.6% | 17.0% | 5.8% | 13.8% | 3.36% |
| FY 2024 | 23.0% | 3.0% | 20.0% | 16.8% | 6.2% | 13.1% | 3.32% |
| FY 2023 | 22.0% | 2.4% | 19.7% | 16.0% | 6.1% | 10.7% | 2.97% |
| FY 2022 | 24.1% | 1.8% | 22.2% | 18.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 2.07% |
| FY 2021 | 28.7% | 1.5% | 27.3% | 17.1% | 11.7% | 5.2% | 1.61% |
| FY 2020 | 30.5% | 1.6% | 28.9% | 16.0% | 14.5% | 5.3% | 1.77% |
| FY 2019 | 20.6% | 1.7% | 18.9% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 2.49% |
| FY 2018 | 19.9% | 1.6% | 18.3% | 16.1% | 3.8% | 7.9% | 2.49% |
| FY 2017 | 20.3% | 1.3% | 19.0% | 16.9% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 2.28% |
| FY 2016 | 20.5% | 1.3% | 19.2% | 17.4% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 2.23% |
| FY 2015 | 20.2% | 1.2% | 19.0% | 17.8% | 2.4% | 6.0% | 2.35% |
| FY 2014 | 19.9% | 1.3% | 18.6% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 6.5% | 2.40% |
| FY 2013 | 20.5% | 1.3% | 19.2% | 16.4% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 2.43% |
| FY 2012 | 21.7% | 1.4% | 20.3% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 2.59% |
| FY 2011 | 23.1% | 1.5% | 21.6% | 14.8% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 2.89% |
| FY 2010 | 23.0% | 1.3% | 21.7% | 14.4% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 3.05% |
| FY 2009 | 24.3% | 1.3% | 23.0% | 14.5% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 3.35% |
| FY 2008 | 20.2% | 1.7% | 18.5% | 17.1% | 3.1% | 8.5% | 4.19% |
| FY 2007 | 18.9% | 1.6% | 17.2% | 17.7% | 1.1% | 8.7% | 5.01% |
| FY 2006 | 19.2% | 1.6% | 17.6% | 17.4% | 1.8% | 8.5% | 5.02% |
| FY 2005 | 19.0% | 1.4% | 17.5% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 7.4% | 4.70% |
| FY 2004 | 18.8% | 1.3% | 17.5% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 7.0% | 4.52% |
| FY 2003 | 18.9% | 1.3% | 17.5% | 15.6% | 3.3% | 7.1% | 4.65% |
| FY 2002 | 18.4% | 1.6% | 16.8% | 17.0% | 1.4% | 8.5% | 5.30% |
| FY 2001 | 17.6% | 1.9% | 15.7% | 18.8% | −1.2% | 11.1% | 6.06% |
| FY 2000 | 17.5% | 2.2% | 15.3% | 19.8% | −2.3% | 12.5% | — |
| FY 1999 | 17.7% | 2.4% | 15.3% | 19.0% | −1.3% | 13.5% | — |
| FY 1998 | 18.2% | 2.7% | 15.6% | 19.0% | −0.8% | 14.6% | — |
| FY 1997 | 18.7% | 2.8% | 15.8% | 18.4% | 0.3% | 15.2% | — |
| FY 1996 | 19.3% | 3.0% | 16.3% | 18.0% | 1.3% | 15.4% | — |
Outlays, net interest and receipts as shares of GDP are the Office of Management and Budget's fiscal-year figures (October–September). Primary outlays are outlays minus net interest. Government's contribution to growth is BEA's, in percentage points of real GDP growth at an annual rate, averaged over the quarters after the first fiscal year ends through the last one's end. Real GDP's growth a year chains BEA's year-over-year rate at each fiscal year's end.
Correlation matrix
Correlation of Treasury yields with economic and market indicators
Each cell is the correlation between two series over the periods both were published. By default it compares changes (this month's move against this month's move), because levels that trend for decades correlate strongly whether or not they are related. A correlation describes co-movement in this sample: it does not show which way any effect runs, and a common cause such as an inflation surprise can move both.
★ marks a Pearson 95% interval that excludes zero after allowing for month-to-month persistence; ⊂ marks a pair where one series is built from the other (the 10-year is the real yield plus breakeven inflation; the term premium is part of the 10-year; the Baa spread subtracts it; the Nasdaq's largest companies are in the S&P 500), so they move together by construction. Cells need 36 matched periods. Select a cell to read the pair.
| X ↓ / Y → | Policy rate | 2-year | 10-year | Real 10-year | Breakeven | Term premium | Mortgage | Baa spread | CPI | Core PCE | Unemployment | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | Dollar | Fin. conditions | Fed holdings | Debt rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | |||||||||||||||||
| 2-year | |||||||||||||||||
| 10-year | |||||||||||||||||
| Real 10-year | |||||||||||||||||
| Breakeven | |||||||||||||||||
| Term premium | |||||||||||||||||
| Mortgage | |||||||||||||||||
| Baa spread | |||||||||||||||||
| CPI | |||||||||||||||||
| Core PCE | |||||||||||||||||
| Unemployment | |||||||||||||||||
| S&P 500 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nasdaq | |||||||||||||||||
| Dollar | |||||||||||||||||
| Fin. conditions | |||||||||||||||||
| Fed holdings | |||||||||||||||||
| Debt rate |
10-year Treasury yield and CPI inflation, 12 months
change, points against change, points, same month, from 2000.
- Pearson r
- 0.22
- Spearman ρ
- 0.23
- Matched periods
- 319
- Independent periods, about
- 261
- 95% interval for r
- 0.10 to 0.33
A weak positive co-movement in this sample; the interval excludes zero. Co-movement is not causation: policy, markets and the economy respond to the same news.
Inspect the 319 matched periods and serving row IDs
| Period | 10-year | CPI | Rows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 0.305 | 0.341 | 0f026457 53b6f39c 1940def6 762c4b0d |
| Aug 2026 | 0.085 | 0.032 | 8c375a52 0f026457 78162c78 1940def6 |
| Jul 2026 | 0.129 | -0.167 | 9e119e55 8c375a52 7123c327 78162c78 |
| Jun 2026 | -0.014 | -0.717 | 91cdcf31 9e119e55 3a3c6581 7123c327 |
| May 2026 | 0.165 | 0.438 | 2ea8ba08 91cdcf31 629e0079 3a3c6581 |
| Apr 2026 | 0.073 | 0.554 | 5d382d57 2ea8ba08 5c63d207 629e0079 |
| Mar 2026 | 0.120 | 0.842 | f820beb7 5d382d57 f0cee1f0 5c63d207 |
| Feb 2026 | -0.088 | 0.028 | b109c9ea f820beb7 896cf860 f0cee1f0 |
| Jan 2026 | 0.070 | -0.291 | 58e7fab9 b109c9ea 65d60889 896cf860 |
| Dec 2025 | 0.049 | -0.058 | df3f3a73 58e7fab9 86ae6dee 65d60889 |
| Sep 2025 | -0.144 | 0.097 | e33ae03b 55bfee27 cb5ccd62 e5ee6eb5 |
| Aug 2025 | -0.127 | 0.211 | c1cc496b e33ae03b 4a90fbe5 cb5ccd62 |
| Jul 2025 | 0.008 | 0.036 | cc645d40 c1cc496b 1f202dc4 4a90fbe5 |
| Jun 2025 | -0.040 | 0.314 | cc303eb2 cc645d40 84b67b2e 1f202dc4 |
| May 2025 | 0.145 | 0.044 | f893b631 cc303eb2 593d2b18 84b67b2e |
| Apr 2025 | -0.001 | -0.079 | cba5a98e f893b631 e97b5953 593d2b18 |
| Mar 2025 | -0.171 | -0.431 | 6fee619a cba5a98e f11a7f5c e97b5953 |
| Feb 2025 | -0.178 | -0.179 | 6e72f14f 6fee619a cc6445a0 f11a7f5c |
| Jan 2025 | 0.238 | 0.112 | c401f51f 6e72f14f 111ff3b8 cc6445a0 |
| Dec 2024 | 0.036 | 0.139 | d8ffd4b8 c401f51f 1b8a0013 111ff3b8 |
| Nov 2024 | 0.260 | 0.151 | 27592eec d8ffd4b8 38bb12a2 1b8a0013 |
| Oct 2024 | 0.372 | 0.157 | d1b0ff39 27592eec e9895e7f 38bb12a2 |
| Sep 2024 | -0.147 | -0.090 | 95e36292 d1b0ff39 44f4556e e9895e7f |
| Aug 2024 | -0.378 | -0.364 | 5500cad7 95e36292 82ca17ff 44f4556e |
| Jul 2024 | -0.057 | -0.077 | 6fb7456d 5500cad7 deddd2a9 82ca17ff |
| Jun 2024 | -0.177 | -0.298 | a36e8946 6fb7456d 9bc9b0a1 deddd2a9 |
| May 2024 | -0.057 | -0.088 | 4f7076eb a36e8946 5085beb8 9bc9b0a1 |
| Apr 2024 | 0.331 | -0.120 | 9495526f 4f7076eb a6399c5a 5085beb8 |
| Mar 2024 | 0.001 | 0.324 | 6415b601 9495526f ea015fe0 a6399c5a |
| Feb 2024 | 0.149 | 0.062 | a37986bb 6415b601 ff2039b9 ea015fe0 |
| Jan 2024 | 0.038 | -0.261 | 10a158a2 a37986bb ef1ad5da ff2039b9 |
| Dec 2023 | -0.483 | 0.215 | 8685f239 10a158a2 18745f98 ef1ad5da |
| Nov 2023 | -0.295 | -0.104 | 33483c5e 8685f239 0ba766cb 18745f98 |
| Oct 2023 | 0.419 | -0.459 | d2ac6fa4 33483c5e b6e861c5 0ba766cb |
| Sep 2023 | 0.211 | 0.035 | 4e23a946 d2ac6fa4 2a85857e b6e861c5 |
| Aug 2023 | 0.268 | 0.487 | c15f256a 4e23a946 5d969586 2a85857e |
| Jul 2023 | 0.151 | 0.209 | 19fdb1cf c15f256a 28477e5e 5d969586 |
| Jun 2023 | 0.174 | -1.078 | 0eda41a7 19fdb1cf c4509392 28477e5e |
| May 2023 | 0.114 | -0.883 | 1ae18ec4 0eda41a7 f62c1817 c4509392 |
| Apr 2023 | -0.203 | -0.055 | ead2ffd3 1ae18ec4 1b044ecb f62c1817 |
| Mar 2023 | -0.084 | -1.051 | c04c8f0d ead2ffd3 35153a8d 1b044ecb |
| Feb 2023 | 0.215 | -0.375 | 2fa520af c04c8f0d 9f4c532a 35153a8d |
| Jan 2023 | -0.085 | -0.044 | 7cfea4e6 2fa520af 402371b8 9f4c532a |
| Dec 2022 | -0.275 | -0.656 | 18f3530d 7cfea4e6 3f00b6a7 402371b8 |
| Nov 2022 | -0.093 | -0.635 | da4f3604 18f3530d 83bed770 3f00b6a7 |
| Oct 2022 | 0.464 | -0.456 | 69a1ebec da4f3604 34445a53 83bed770 |
| Sep 2022 | 0.621 | -0.061 | 8ec3be71 69a1ebec a56744c1 34445a53 |
| Aug 2022 | 0.002 | -0.262 | 4b7e8de3 8ec3be71 33f8f9c5 a56744c1 |
| Jul 2022 | -0.247 | -0.535 | 62ca4b28 4b7e8de3 d21cd643 33f8f9c5 |
| Jun 2022 | 0.245 | 0.478 | aef7888b 62ca4b28 a0ed7d6c d21cd643 |
| May 2022 | 0.151 | 0.323 | 99099f9e aef7888b a45ee6b4 a0ed7d6c |
| Apr 2022 | 0.620 | -0.284 | 06f5c589 99099f9e 2b29f48c a45ee6b4 |
| Mar 2022 | 0.194 | 0.671 | df76e2aa 06f5c589 8ace7630 2b29f48c |
| Feb 2022 | 0.170 | 0.391 | 333b4407 df76e2aa 69652686 8ace7630 |
| Jan 2022 | 0.299 | 0.443 | ba768bb7 333b4407 80f1cbfd 69652686 |
| Dec 2021 | -0.095 | 0.227 | cb4dabc7 ba768bb7 00c882b3 80f1cbfd |
| Nov 2021 | -0.023 | 0.587 | bfac933a cb4dabc7 f3001487 00c882b3 |
| Oct 2021 | 0.208 | 0.832 | 1279c1e3 bfac933a 1f51e333 f3001487 |
| Sep 2021 | 0.092 | 0.139 | b4c389a9 1279c1e3 65fd2b7a 1f51e333 |
| Aug 2021 | -0.035 | -0.114 | 6cdfa7b5 b4c389a9 d8236332 65fd2b7a |
| Jul 2021 | -0.201 | -0.026 | 8e9b6ec6 6cdfa7b5 48903adc d8236332 |
| Jun 2021 | -0.102 | 0.399 | e6f21d2d 8e9b6ec6 8768f14d 48903adc |
| May 2021 | -0.014 | 0.833 | 3b1af811 e6f21d2d c58259b8 8768f14d |
| Apr 2021 | 0.024 | 1.540 | d1268ba0 3b1af811 4fa8d258 c58259b8 |
| Mar 2021 | 0.353 | 0.944 | 7ab7be2a d1268ba0 ce7e5b56 4fa8d258 |
| Feb 2021 | 0.177 | 0.276 | 170c23c2 7ab7be2a e0842390 ce7e5b56 |
| Jan 2021 | 0.147 | 0.038 | 7a1c1f80 170c23c2 07a37902 e0842390 |
| Dec 2020 | 0.064 | 0.187 | 30ad42df 7a1c1f80 e40ceb74 07a37902 |
| Nov 2020 | 0.083 | -0.008 | 480520ce 30ad42df b5596974 e40ceb74 |
| Oct 2020 | 0.108 | -0.189 | 9fa02200 480520ce 5892d464 b5596974 |
| Sep 2020 | 0.030 | 0.062 | 1db6223e 9fa02200 ed015979 5892d464 |
| Aug 2020 | 0.026 | 0.324 | 461a99cf 1db6223e 44c49007 ed015979 |
| Jul 2020 | -0.105 | 0.340 | ee6555e1 461a99cf dd2772b0 44c49007 |
| Jun 2020 | 0.055 | 0.528 | 6b9ac1cf ee6555e1 ecdde2c3 dd2772b0 |
| May 2020 | 0.016 | -0.211 | e766ffc3 6b9ac1cf ca9d2892 ecdde2c3 |
| Apr 2020 | -0.212 | -1.210 | 75c7ab13 e766ffc3 b835c769 ca9d2892 |
| Mar 2020 | -0.634 | -0.796 | 2e45942d 75c7ab13 cf82d79c b835c769 |
| Feb 2020 | -0.253 | -0.152 | 3b645586 2e45942d 356828dd cf82d79c |
| Jan 2020 | -0.105 | 0.201 | ea7d3256 3b645586 0ffdb635 356828dd |
| Dec 2019 | 0.051 | 0.234 | 87d7fd53 ea7d3256 535c11fc 0ffdb635 |
| Nov 2019 | 0.105 | 0.287 | a458c897 87d7fd53 ab0e0860 535c11fc |
| Oct 2019 | 0.007 | 0.053 | 1fda32c5 a458c897 8c31c554 ab0e0860 |
| Sep 2019 | 0.073 | -0.038 | d25aa7e3 1fda32c5 51d13177 8c31c554 |
| Aug 2019 | -0.433 | -0.062 | 5a3fffad d25aa7e3 614fda5a 51d13177 |
| Jul 2019 | -0.015 | 0.163 | b72d1625 5a3fffad 4f7dac1f 614fda5a |
| Jun 2019 | -0.321 | -0.142 | 746d06f7 b72d1625 86a5f518 4f7dac1f |
| May 2019 | -0.137 | -0.206 | ada65c33 746d06f7 625a0b2e 86a5f518 |
| Apr 2019 | -0.039 | 0.134 | 12b291ae ada65c33 5ec691d4 625a0b2e |
| Mar 2019 | -0.105 | 0.342 | 2f5cbe9e 12b291ae 466817ee 5ec691d4 |
| Feb 2019 | -0.037 | -0.031 | 34d6e379 2f5cbe9e 8a801266 466817ee |
| Jan 2019 | -0.119 | -0.359 | d152f2ce 34d6e379 e89f4b27 8a801266 |
| Dec 2018 | -0.284 | -0.266 | 4d081ca7 d152f2ce df7fab88 e89f4b27 |
| Nov 2018 | -0.035 | -0.346 | a982bce1 4d081ca7 ea7dfb43 df7fab88 |
| Oct 2018 | 0.148 | 0.245 | 4bf6e2ba a982bce1 4dcc6154 ea7dfb43 |
| Sep 2018 | 0.115 | -0.422 | 2c1510f4 4bf6e2ba 3ecf2df0 4dcc6154 |
| Aug 2018 | 0.000 | -0.250 | a8c8cca2 2c1510f4 cc36f8fe 3ecf2df0 |
| Jul 2018 | -0.023 | 0.078 | 51763aa8 a8c8cca2 36302e6b cc36f8fe |
| Jun 2018 | -0.065 | 0.071 | 5187a637 51763aa8 eb71f1dd 36302e6b |
| May 2018 | 0.109 | 0.338 | f95d8fbd 5187a637 c21a5a60 eb71f1dd |
| Apr 2018 | 0.027 | 0.103 | 66d85008 f95d8fbd 0789afd6 c21a5a60 |
| Mar 2018 | -0.017 | 0.148 | c26d6c95 66d85008 145ebed8 0789afd6 |
| Feb 2018 | 0.275 | 0.141 | 74bc6bad c26d6c95 6b83d4bb 145ebed8 |
| Jan 2018 | 0.181 | -0.039 | 7ded2141 74bc6bad fbd535f4 6b83d4bb |
| Dec 2017 | 0.049 | -0.094 | f58d2355 7ded2141 e9609a19 fbd535f4 |
| Nov 2017 | -0.007 | 0.161 | 132d6eee f58d2355 4b9119df e9609a19 |
| Oct 2017 | 0.158 | -0.192 | 9c637036 132d6eee 0f88d690 4b9119df |
| Sep 2017 | -0.007 | 0.294 | 3f7a0f12 9c637036 58bb006a 0f88d690 |
| Aug 2017 | -0.109 | 0.211 | 13233b20 3f7a0f12 33809033 58bb006a |
| Jul 2017 | 0.131 | 0.094 | ed1c99e9 13233b20 2bc16e0f 33809033 |
| Jun 2017 | -0.117 | -0.241 | 60495719 ed1c99e9 355acd23 2bc16e0f |
| May 2017 | 0.006 | -0.325 | 75594779 60495719 228ef672 355acd23 |
| Apr 2017 | -0.184 | -0.181 | a485b1f5 75594779 133da268 228ef672 |
| Mar 2017 | 0.063 | -0.357 | 1759eb10 a485b1f5 2bc54947 133da268 |
| Feb 2017 | -0.014 | 0.238 | 111488b0 1759eb10 cb1aefcf 2bc54947 |
| Jan 2017 | -0.059 | 0.425 | cf3ea277 111488b0 fae4b1a0 cb1aefcf |
| Dec 2016 | 0.350 | 0.382 | 99e12a7f cf3ea277 b35926f1 fae4b1a0 |
| Nov 2016 | 0.378 | 0.057 | 30d7a9d6 99e12a7f 5bfe3c22 b35926f1 |
| Oct 2016 | 0.134 | 0.172 | 89f97f02 30d7a9d6 f7436eae 5bfe3c22 |
| Sep 2016 | 0.074 | 0.401 | c39a0986 89f97f02 5be86360 f7436eae |
| Aug 2016 | 0.053 | 0.236 | 6be7a125 c39a0986 e8590796 5be86360 |
| Jul 2016 | -0.140 | -0.170 | 651cde95 6be7a125 2567e10d e8590796 |
| Jun 2016 | -0.162 | -0.022 | 9d1aa53a 651cde95 6774656d 2567e10d |
| May 2016 | 0.001 | -0.106 | b4cc847e 9d1aa53a 2838eea8 6774656d |
| Apr 2016 | -0.084 | 0.273 | c03aa2e7 b4cc847e 6992c9d1 2838eea8 |
| Mar 2016 | 0.110 | -0.165 | dcc7fc12 c03aa2e7 8ec5c1bf 6992c9d1 |
| Feb 2016 | -0.306 | -0.355 | 89645ace dcc7fc12 ba77bef2 8ec5c1bf |
| Jan 2016 | -0.157 | 0.644 | 473948ba 89645ace bc9ea9e5 ba77bef2 |
| Dec 2015 | -0.020 | 0.228 | a8e70fa0 473948ba ff1935c1 bc9ea9e5 |
| Nov 2015 | 0.193 | 0.331 | 0d7e7d76 a8e70fa0 dec2713e ff1935c1 |
| Oct 2015 | -0.103 | 0.207 | 4eee2839 0d7e7d76 45090935 dec2713e |
| Sep 2015 | 0.006 | -0.231 | e4d89ea7 4eee2839 2a56af55 45090935 |
| Aug 2015 | -0.157 | 0.026 | 565eb1f4 e4d89ea7 5e8c4280 2a56af55 |
| Jul 2015 | -0.039 | 0.046 | 7047adc2 565eb1f4 7168c004 5e8c4280 |
| Jun 2015 | 0.166 | 0.164 | e776e5a0 7047adc2 1a463634 7168c004 |
| May 2015 | 0.263 | 0.160 | 96346027 e776e5a0 4e75ca19 1a463634 |
| Apr 2015 | -0.108 | -0.126 | 645b4de9 96346027 84829f7e 4e75ca19 |
| Mar 2015 | 0.067 | -0.049 | dbfaaafb 645b4de9 22bb7d06 84829f7e |
| Feb 2015 | 0.094 | 0.064 | 9f19b48f dbfaaafb 62c571f2 22bb7d06 |
| Jan 2015 | -0.326 | -0.846 | 23a6de68 9f19b48f f0c7b22f 62c571f2 |
| Dec 2014 | -0.118 | -0.566 | 17561321 23a6de68 b9bc0d51 f0c7b22f |
| Nov 2014 | 0.021 | -0.342 | 861c17bf 17561321 8f8fc963 b9bc0d51 |
| Oct 2014 | -0.230 | 0.006 | 6a1d670b 861c17bf 4ec5e335 8f8fc963 |
| Sep 2014 | 0.114 | -0.042 | dc1ba48e 6a1d670b b2c5b2f1 4ec5e335 |
| Aug 2014 | -0.122 | -0.293 | 655fb3ca dc1ba48e 8c378d6d b2c5b2f1 |
| Jul 2014 | -0.056 | -0.080 | e1084691 655fb3ca 216f1423 8c378d6d |
| Jun 2014 | 0.040 | -0.055 | 20561a58 e1084691 1f1a2ba4 216f1423 |
| May 2014 | -0.146 | 0.174 | c01a7735 20561a58 1ab43b89 1f1a2ba4 |
| Apr 2014 | -0.018 | 0.441 | 752ed76a c01a7735 59ed1e31 1ab43b89 |
| Mar 2014 | 0.014 | 0.386 | af5ba983 752ed76a ac7a2b3d 59ed1e31 |
| Feb 2014 | -0.149 | -0.453 | be4adfa4 af5ba983 08c36bcf ac7a2b3d |
| Jan 2014 | -0.044 | 0.077 | 5373e5fe be4adfa4 9f5e122e 08c36bcf |
| Dec 2013 | 0.183 | 0.265 | 217db326 5373e5fe fa8f107f 9f5e122e |
| Nov 2013 | 0.103 | 0.273 | 8ecd22bd 217db326 80a0d993 fa8f107f |
| Oct 2013 | -0.194 | -0.221 | ccc5588a 8ecd22bd 1897e62c 80a0d993 |
| Sep 2013 | 0.072 | -0.333 | efeb450a ccc5588a ec6db2e6 1897e62c |
| Aug 2013 | 0.155 | -0.442 | d46dd31c efeb450a c0012994 ec6db2e6 |
| Jul 2013 | 0.282 | 0.206 | 1968431f d46dd31c 4aeacee2 c0012994 |
| Jun 2013 | 0.372 | 0.392 | d665471c 1968431f 59d2ba96 4aeacee2 |
| May 2013 | 0.169 | 0.299 | 6331f2ca d665471c 82f3701d 59d2ba96 |
| Apr 2013 | -0.198 | -0.411 | 964cfd4c 6331f2ca cfa947ab 82f3701d |
| Mar 2013 | -0.027 | -0.504 | e5d5880f 964cfd4c 540ccb24 cfa947ab |
| Feb 2013 | 0.069 | 0.383 | fc8ff8ec e5d5880f 2371fa06 540ccb24 |
| Jan 2013 | 0.196 | -0.146 | 3214e7e9 fc8ff8ec 8b9821f3 2371fa06 |
| Dec 2012 | 0.065 | -0.023 | 9e0c2662 3214e7e9 77c6c9ee 8b9821f3 |
| Nov 2012 | -0.092 | -0.398 | 6b124340 9e0c2662 b79ed034 77c6c9ee |
| Oct 2012 | 0.023 | 0.171 | 9bbf2a43 6b124340 063453b0 b79ed034 |
| Sep 2012 | 0.045 | 0.299 | 59188c37 9bbf2a43 3d6d5437 063453b0 |
| Aug 2012 | 0.152 | 0.284 | 1b51b96a 59188c37 8c1daf3c 3d6d5437 |
| Jul 2012 | -0.096 | -0.256 | 0def2995 1b51b96a 1c9b46b0 8c1daf3c |
| Jun 2012 | -0.181 | -0.040 | 5ada86b6 0def2995 3891091c 1c9b46b0 |
| May 2012 | -0.250 | -0.598 | c21d89b8 5ada86b6 2068f9a3 3891091c |
| Apr 2012 | -0.120 | -0.349 | 3d2c0c49 c21d89b8 56a24d5f 2068f9a3 |
| Mar 2012 | 0.205 | -0.220 | 2ebf7ef4 3d2c0c49 05c3c402 56a24d5f |
| Feb 2012 | 0.001 | -0.054 | 4aacead5 2ebf7ef4 b1597839 05c3c402 |
| Jan 2012 | -0.012 | -0.037 | 541675e2 4aacead5 690b7c96 b1597839 |
| Dec 2011 | -0.035 | -0.432 | 3d784c42 541675e2 7f81073c 690b7c96 |
| Nov 2011 | -0.139 | -0.131 | 7d6c5655 3d784c42 521e8062 7f81073c |
| Oct 2011 | 0.177 | -0.343 | 1e88c7d0 7d6c5655 bc17cc93 521e8062 |
| Sep 2011 | -0.328 | 0.097 | eda78533 1e88c7d0 473c0f3f bc17cc93 |
| Aug 2011 | -0.700 | 0.142 | c2a1e6a6 eda78533 0b3fe1fb 473c0f3f |
| Jul 2011 | 0.001 | 0.070 | 0206f289 c2a1e6a6 97faf2ad 0b3fe1fb |
| Jun 2011 | -0.166 | -0.010 | 28b643e1 0206f289 b42a9d28 97faf2ad |
| May 2011 | -0.286 | 0.405 | d78ab497 28b643e1 e920ff30 b42a9d28 |
| Apr 2011 | 0.041 | 0.482 | 014905b1 d78ab497 0307ed7b e920ff30 |
| Mar 2011 | -0.162 | 0.574 | 8819d259 014905b1 a1fa424d 0307ed7b |
| Feb 2011 | 0.182 | 0.476 | 4a375ede 8819d259 60feae30 a1fa424d |
| Jan 2011 | 0.103 | 0.136 | 6ecc3425 4a375ede f5ecb24d 60feae30 |
| Dec 2010 | 0.528 | 0.353 | f2bcb04f 6ecc3425 203a035f f5ecb24d |
| Nov 2010 | 0.223 | -0.029 | f7d0a251 f2bcb04f 78333fa1 203a035f |
| Oct 2010 | -0.108 | 0.029 | 45f45326 f7d0a251 2b9074ab 78333fa1 |
| Sep 2010 | -0.051 | -0.004 | 31b3708c 45f45326 bd7af905 2b9074ab |
| Aug 2010 | -0.313 | -0.087 | dbc29ee2 31b3708c 37318d0c bd7af905 |
| Jul 2010 | -0.193 | 0.182 | 1d7bb61b dbc29ee2 c6fee91a 37318d0c |
| Jun 2010 | -0.216 | -0.968 | 7505601a 1d7bb61b c3a206a9 c6fee91a |
| May 2010 | -0.427 | -0.215 | c6908b33 7505601a 54e0f12d c3a206a9 |
| Apr 2010 | 0.119 | -0.078 | 213b359c c6908b33 d6146376 54e0f12d |
| Mar 2010 | 0.036 | 0.171 | aab6079d 213b359c a05e8531 d6146376 |
| Feb 2010 | -0.042 | -0.482 | 1537339f aab6079d 4f604867 a05e8531 |
| Jan 2010 | 0.143 | -0.096 | 5c4591fe 1537339f 485ddf97 4f604867 |
| Dec 2009 | 0.187 | 0.883 | 5cc40fd8 5c4591fe 4f6adf89 485ddf97 |
| Nov 2009 | 0.015 | 2.021 | 637f9bd7 5cc40fd8 4c7a2583 4f6adf89 |
| Oct 2009 | -0.014 | 1.103 | 0a46c6bc 637f9bd7 3e0964b3 4c7a2583 |
| Sep 2009 | -0.185 | 0.198 | bf8c9db6 0a46c6bc 1328a218 3e0964b3 |
| Aug 2009 | 0.025 | 0.613 | b2afc674 bf8c9db6 67c7d6e9 1328a218 |
| Jul 2009 | -0.160 | -0.670 | 1dd75bf5 b2afc674 e85626d8 67c7d6e9 |
| Jun 2009 | 0.429 | -0.145 | a52113f6 1dd75bf5 85993fce e85626d8 |
| May 2009 | 0.366 | -0.545 | 7348a306 a52113f6 14e46d5a 85993fce |
| Apr 2009 | 0.108 | -0.353 | e55aea8a 7348a306 33c3b39d 14e46d5a |
| Mar 2009 | -0.050 | -0.620 | d995b53c e55aea8a 162b8d14 33c3b39d |
| Feb 2009 | 0.353 | 0.206 | 72f27654 d995b53c 5c0c45c3 162b8d14 |
| Jan 2009 | 0.101 | -0.062 | b162b789 72f27654 69cac1af 5c0c45c3 |
| Dec 2008 | -1.110 | -0.978 | 6d52feb1 b162b789 ba2c4768 69cac1af |
| Nov 2008 | -0.287 | -2.586 | e81b2d2a 6d52feb1 0e9e2cb3 ba2c4768 |
| Oct 2008 | 0.128 | -1.282 | 3d916cb8 e81b2d2a fa9cf8ec 0e9e2cb3 |
| Sep 2008 | -0.200 | -0.435 | 2c9a3242 3d916cb8 9001e1c0 fa9cf8ec |
| Aug 2008 | -0.122 | -0.228 | d232143f 2c9a3242 53ab71a9 9001e1c0 |
| Jul 2008 | -0.092 | 0.578 | 0b56b54a d232143f 4ab6f9b1 53ab71a9 |
| Jun 2008 | 0.220 | 0.846 | 24caec58 0b56b54a e47b09e6 4ab6f9b1 |
| May 2008 | 0.205 | 0.239 | 81901554 24caec58 62dee0e6 e47b09e6 |
| Apr 2008 | 0.165 | -0.045 | 137a11f7 81901554 3e6aee76 62dee0e6 |
| Mar 2008 | -0.228 | -0.045 | deaf19ad 137a11f7 e1509526 3e6aee76 |
| Feb 2008 | -0.007 | -0.254 | 82e1c682 deaf19ad 7ad031f6 e1509526 |
| Jan 2008 | -0.353 | 0.199 | 45a805d0 82e1c682 ca57a838 7ad031f6 |
| Dec 2007 | -0.051 | -0.225 | 0b136fbd 45a805d0 5c83b50e ca57a838 |
| Nov 2007 | -0.379 | 0.770 | a7b8d135 0b136fbd b38bd0b5 5c83b50e |
| Oct 2007 | 0.006 | 0.781 | dd32e8a8 a7b8d135 13452de9 b38bd0b5 |
| Sep 2007 | -0.153 | 0.785 | b29e3ce5 dd32e8a8 5d087a04 13452de9 |
| Aug 2007 | -0.330 | -0.388 | 02bb938f b29e3ce5 a1c4389b 5d087a04 |
| Jul 2007 | -0.099 | -0.329 | 4c15addb 02bb938f ade9d4a4 a1c4389b |
| Jun 2007 | 0.356 | -0.004 | 916cb862 4c15addb 6348b1de ade9d4a4 |
| May 2007 | 0.053 | 0.117 | 4707b4ce 916cb862 c37da841 6348b1de |
| Apr 2007 | 0.129 | -0.205 | c1b67d00 4707b4ce 91a788c0 c37da841 |
| Mar 2007 | -0.158 | 0.364 | 79afa928 c1b67d00 ae5b072a 91a788c0 |
| Feb 2007 | -0.037 | 0.340 | 57205f97 79afa928 67377bc2 ae5b072a |
| Jan 2007 | 0.195 | -0.465 | 841e6e9e 57205f97 3e63698a 67377bc2 |
| Dec 2006 | -0.031 | 0.567 | ce50dc32 841e6e9e 30d64c82 3e63698a |
| Nov 2006 | -0.134 | 0.668 | 34d567a2 ce50dc32 b2d09d72 30d64c82 |
| Oct 2006 | 0.010 | -0.757 | 0e607ac8 34d567a2 4c6b3185 b2d09d72 |
| Sep 2006 | -0.158 | -1.756 | aabedbb9 0e607ac8 5bd39138 4c6b3185 |
| Aug 2006 | -0.211 | -0.327 | 0ff126c6 aabedbb9 c1c1d2fa 5bd39138 |
Lead–lag correlations
Pearson r between 10-year Treasury yield in one month and each series the stated number of periods later. A lead of 0 is the same period. Policy also reacts to the data, so a pattern here can run either way.
| Later series | Same period | 1 month later | 3 months later | 6 months later | 12 months later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 0.13★n=321 | 0.25★n=320 | 0.23★n=318 | 0.11n=315 | 0.07n=309 |
| 2-year | 0.76★n=321 | 0.28★n=320 | 0.02n=318 | 0.00n=315 | 0.05n=309 |
| Real 10-year | 0.78★⊂n=284 | 0.23★⊂n=284 | 0.07⊂n=284 | 0.03⊂n=284 | 0.04⊂n=284 |
| Breakeven | 0.52★⊂n=284 | 0.10⊂n=284 | −0.12⊂n=284 | −0.12⊂n=284 | −0.02⊂n=284 |
| Term premium | 0.93★⊂n=321 | 0.18★⊂n=320 | −0.09⊂n=318 | −0.11⊂n=315 | 0.01⊂n=309 |
| Mortgage | 0.84★n=321 | 0.40★n=320 | −0.04n=318 | −0.04n=315 | 0.02n=309 |
| Baa spread | −0.46★⊂n=321 | −0.16★⊂n=320 | −0.02⊂n=318 | 0.12★⊂n=315 | −0.01⊂n=309 |
| CPI | 0.22★n=319 | 0.15★n=318 | −0.06n=316 | −0.01n=313 | −0.19★n=307 |
| Core PCE | 0.06n=321 | 0.09n=320 | 0.02n=318 | 0.07n=315 | −0.08n=309 |
| Unemployment | −0.08n=319 | −0.18★n=318 | 0.00n=316 | 0.00n=313 | 0.01n=307 |
| S&P 500 | 0.04n=119 | −0.09n=119 | −0.20★n=119 | −0.04n=119 | −0.12n=119 |
| Nasdaq | 0.23★n=321 | 0.03n=320 | −0.06n=318 | 0.04n=315 | 0.02n=309 |
| Dollar | 0.06n=248 | −0.01n=248 | −0.06n=248 | 0.07n=248 | 0.01n=248 |
| Fin. conditions | −0.21★n=321 | −0.01n=320 | −0.02n=318 | 0.08n=315 | −0.04n=309 |
| Fed holdings | 0.02n=285 | 0.02n=285 | −0.08n=285 | −0.03n=285 | −0.06n=285 |
| Debt rate | 0.21★n=308 | 0.29★n=308 | 0.26★n=308 | 0.15★n=308 | 0.19★n=308 |
Of the 80 cells in this grid, about 4 would clear a 95% interval by chance alone; 27 do. An isolated ★ with no neighbouring support is likely noise.
Methods and reproducible inputs
Pairs match exact calendar periods; a period without both values is dropped, never filled. Changes are differences for rates and spreads (percentage points) and percentage changes for prices and indices; growth rates and contributions are used as published. Quarterly values average the quarter's three months and need all three. Pearson r is computed on the values and Spearman ρ on their ranks. The 95% interval uses the Fisher transform with an effective sample size n × (1 − ρx·ρy) ÷ (1 + ρx·ρy), where ρx and ρy are each series' lag-1 autocorrelations; it needs twelve consecutive links and is not shown otherwise.
The S&P 500 is available on FRED for the last ten years only, so its cells have fewer periods; the Nasdaq Composite covers 1971 onward. The term premium is a Federal Reserve Board model estimate. Snapshot 094de88f-c444-5156-827d-59df3138423a · us-rates-94b9517e620b8db2.
Next releases
Release calendar and sources
-
Major foreign holders of Treasury securities Sep 2026 · Monthly TIC release at 4 p.m. Eastern.US Treasury (TIC) ↗
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FOMC policy decision Dec 2026 · With a Summary of Economic Projections.Federal Reserve ↗
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Major foreign holders of Treasury securities Oct 2026 · Monthly TIC release at 4 p.m. Eastern.US Treasury (TIC) ↗
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Major foreign holders of Treasury securities Nov 2026 · Monthly TIC release at 4 p.m. Eastern; the January release revises the past year.US Treasury (TIC) ↗
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FOMC policy decision Jan 2027 · Statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.Federal Reserve ↗
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Major foreign holders of Treasury securities Dec 2026 · Monthly TIC release at 4 p.m. Eastern.US Treasury (TIC) ↗
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FOMC policy decision Mar 2027 · With a Summary of Economic Projections.Federal Reserve ↗
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Major foreign holders of Treasury securities Jan 2027 · Monthly TIC release at 4 p.m. Eastern.US Treasury (TIC) ↗
Sources
Publishers in this snapshot
- US Treasury (TIC) ↗11,941 observations · Mar 2000 – Aug 2026
- Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED ↗4,143 observations · Jan 1962 – Sep 2026
- Federal Reserve Board H.15 via FRED ↗4,048 observations · Jan 1962 – Sep 2026
- US Treasury, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt ↗2,625 observations · Jan 2001 – Sep 2026
- US Treasury, Fiscal Data (average interest rates) ↗2,270 observations · Jan 2001 – Sep 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED ↗1,552 observations · Jan 1962 – Sep 2026
- Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 via FRED ↗1,430 observations · Dec 2002 – Sep 2026
- Federal Reserve Board via FRED ↗962 observations · Sep 1982 – Oct 2026
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED ↗959 observations · Jan 1962 – Sep 2026
- US Treasury (Treasury Bulletin) via FRED ↗677 observations · Jan 1970 – Jun 2026
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED ↗669 observations · Jan 1971 – Sep 2026
- Nasdaq via FRED ↗668 observations · Feb 1971 – Sep 2026
- Freddie Mac via FRED ↗666 observations · Apr 1971 – Sep 2026
- Federal Reserve Board (Kim–Wright) via FRED ↗558 observations · Jan 1990 – Sep 2026
- Moody's via FRED ↗489 observations · Jan 1986 – Sep 2026
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from H.15 via FRED ↗402 observations · Jan 2003 – Sep 2026
- Office of Management and Budget via FRED ↗384 observations · Jul 1961 – Sep 2025
- Congressional Budget Office via FRED ↗259 observations · Jan 1962 – Sep 2026
- Congressional Budget Office and BEA via FRED ↗259 observations · Jan 1962 – Sep 2026
- Federal Reserve Board H.10 via FRED ↗249 observations · Jan 2006 – Sep 2026
- Federal Reserve Board ↗242 observations · Jun 2004 – Sep 2026
- S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED ↗120 observations · Oct 2016 – Sep 2026
- National Bureau of Economic Research via FRED ↗85 observations · Jan 1970 – Apr 2020
Methodology and definitions
Policy and yields
The effective federal funds rate is the New York Fed's daily EFFR averaged over each month (the Board's monthly FEDFUNDS before July 2000). The target range and the rate paid on reserves are month-end settings. Treasury yields are H.15 constant-maturity yields averaged over the trading days of each month; the 30-year was not issued from 2002 to 2006, so it has a gap. Breakeven inflation is the 10-year nominal yield minus the TIPS yield; the term premium is the Board's Kim–Wright model estimate, not an observed price.
The balance sheet and its programs
Holdings are the H.4.1 Wednesday levels at the last Wednesday of each month; reserves and reverse repos are monthly averages. Program months (QE1 to reserve management purchases) and the 39 dated announcements are classified from the FOMC statements and speeches linked on each row. Remittances due below zero are the deferred asset: losses the Fed must recoup before it pays the Treasury again.
The government's borrowing cost
The average interest rate is Treasury's own figure for each security type and for all interest-bearing debt, at each month-end. Debt outstanding comes from the Monthly Statement of the Public Debt. Interest payments and defense spending are national-accounts annual rates; net interest and outlays by fiscal year are OMB's. Fiscal years run October–September (July–June through FY 1976).
Holders
TIC major foreign holders are at market value at month-end and by the custodian's country: securities held through Belgium, Luxembourg, the UK, Switzerland or the Cayman Islands are often owned by investors elsewhere. From December 2011 holdings come from monthly SLT reports; earlier months are survey-based estimates with a series break each June. The latest month is preliminary. Ownership by sector is the Treasury Bulletin's quarterly table.
Growth, jobs and inflation
CPI inflation uses the not-seasonally-adjusted index, as BLS publishes 12-month changes; PCE and core PCE use BEA's seasonally adjusted indexes. The output gap is real GDP against CBO's potential output; the natural rate is CBO's estimate. Both are revised as CBO updates them. NBER dates recessions.
Derived calculations
Spreads, real policy rates, Taylor-rule prescriptions, shares of GDP and receipts, holder shares, program-window and announcement-day changes and correlations are calculated on the page from the published rows, which keep their Ids in every table, CSV and Copy for AI block. Nothing is interpolated: a missing month is a gap.
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