{"topic":"us-rates-growth-inflation","title":"US Rates, Growth and Inflation","refreshRunId":"094de88f-c444-5156-827d-59df3138423a","datasetVersion":"us-rates-94b9517e620b8db2","publishedUtc":"2026-11-01T15:30:13+00:00","loadedUtc":"2026-11-01T15:30:13+00:00","conventions":"Rates and yields are per cent; monthly values are averages of the trading days in the month, and the target range, interest on reserves and Fed holdings are month-end levels (the last Wednesday for the Fed\u0027s weekly balance sheet). US$ amounts are billions of current dollars as published. Inflation and GDP growth are year-over-year unless labelled at an annual rate. Fiscal years end in September (June through FY 1976). TIC holdings are attributed to the country of the custodian, so financial centres such as Belgium, Luxembourg and the Cayman Islands hold securities owned by investors elsewhere; before December 2011 they are survey-based estimates with annual series breaks. The term premium and the output gap are model estimates. Spreads, real rates, shares and Taylor-rule prescriptions are calculated from the published rows, never stored. Missing values are gaps, never zero.","sources":[{"name":"US Treasury (TIC)","uri":"https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html","observationCount":11941,"earliestPeriod":"2000-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-08-31","dataStatuses":["ESTIMATED","PROVISIONAL","VERIFIED"]},{"name":"Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED","uri":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1","observationCount":4143,"earliestPeriod":"1962-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-09-30","dataStatuses":["VERIFIED"]},{"name":"Federal Reserve Board H.15 via FRED","uri":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30","observationCount":4048,"earliestPeriod":"1962-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-09-30","dataStatuses":["VERIFIED"]},{"name":"US Treasury, Monthly Statement of the Public 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