Research · United States

US inflation drivers

Which prices keep CPI above 2%, is the pressure broad or concentrated, and what would it take to bring 12-month inflation back?

Inspect the official-source snapshot, test timing and examine projections with their historical errors, without treating correlation as causation.

One published snapshot

Prices, jobs, oil and rates

US-only monthly observations from Jan 2010 through Sep 2026 · version us-inflation-eb32963698e74efd. Every figure below comes from this approved refresh. Individual series end on different months.

Headline CPI3.74%
Core CPI2.56%
JOLTS openings7079.00 thousand
WTI oil97.31 US$/barrel

Related topics

US inflation watch is the primary published data page. US rates, growth and inflation supplies the policy stance below (real policy rate, Taylor-rule benchmarks and market inflation expectations) from its own snapshot.

US Inflation Watch · Primary evidence: CPI category effects, headline/core prices, JOLTS, payrolls, wages, WTI oil and the effective Fed rate.

US Rates, Growth and Inflation · Policy stance: the real policy rate, Taylor-rule benchmarks, Treasury yields, breakeven inflation and the term premium from its own approved snapshot.

Official CPI accounting

Category contributions to CPI inflation

Select an ending month. The four BLS categories are non-overlapping effects on all-items CPI, in percentage points. Shelter belongs to core services. A category's own inflation rate is not its contribution.

These choices drive every section below. The reference pace is the benchmark for breadth, pressure points and the outlook; 2% matches the Fed's objective, which is defined for PCE inflation rather than CPI.

Largest contribution: Core services, including shelter (1.904 pp). That is 51% of the net four-group effect. Four-group total 3.738 pp; CPI rounding means the published headline can differ slightly. Negative effects can make positive shares exceed 100% of the net effect.

Underlying inflation and breadth

Breadth of inflation across the basket

Headline CPI is a weighted average, so a few large price moves can pull it away from what most prices are doing. The trimmed mean and the median describe the middle of the basket instead. If they sit close to the headline, the pressure is broad; if they sit well below it, a few items are lifting the average.

Headline CPI, 12 months3.7%Published by BLS
Core CPI, 12 months2.6%Published; excludes food and energy
Trimmed mean2.8%Middle 84% of spending · Exalytics calculation
Weighted median3.3%Half of spending rose by this or less · Exalytics calculation
Spending rising faster than 2.0%77%Range since Jan 2022: 60% (Apr 24) to 93% (Nov 22)

In September 2026, headline CPI rose 3.7% over 12 months; the trimmed mean was 2.8% and the weighted median 3.3%. Large increases in a small share of spending, mainly gasoline (all types) at +34.2% and airline fares at +22.4%, lift the headline 0.9 points above the trimmed mean. 77% of spending is on items rising faster than 2.0%. By the trimmed mean, underlying inflation is 0.8 points above the reference pace. The median falls on owners' equivalent rent of residences, which alone is 26% of spending.

Distribution of spending weights

Share of the basket by 12-month price change, September 2026

0% or less 12% Motor vehicle insurance -5.0%, Used cars and trucks -1.5%, Medical care commodities -3.3%…
0–1% 5% New vehicles +0.6%
1–2% 6% Other foods +1.4%, Alcoholic beverages +1.4%, Bakery products +1.7%…
2–3% 15% Rent of primary residence +2.8%, Recreation services +2.3%, Physicians' services +2.1%…
3–4% 42% Owners' equivalent rent of residences +3.3%, Education and communication services +3.1%, Limited service meals and snacks +3.2%…
4–6% 14% Electricity +4.4%, Hospital services +5.6%, Other personal services +4.5%…
6–10% 1% Tobacco and smoking products +6.4%, Fish and seafood +6.9%, Coffee +7.1%…
Over 10% 4% Gasoline (all types) +34.2%, Airline fares +22.4%, Fuel oil +74.2%

Headline versus the middle of the basket

12-month change, % · Jan 2022 to Sep 2026

0%2%4%6%8%10% 2.0% referenceHeadline 3.7%Trimmed 2.8%Jan 22Jul 22Jan 23Jul 23Jan 24Jul 24Jan 25Jul 25Jan 26Sep 26January 2022: headline 7.5%, trimmed mean 5.4%, median 4.1%, core 6.0%; 91% of spending above 2.0%February 2022: headline 7.9%, trimmed mean 5.9%, median 4.3%, core 6.4%; 90% of spending above 2.0%March 2022: headline 8.5%, trimmed mean 6.3%, median 4.5%, core 6.5%; 91% of spending above 2.0%April 2022: headline 8.3%, trimmed mean 6.5%, median 4.8%, core 6.2%; 90% of spending above 2.0%May 2022: headline 8.6%, trimmed mean 6.8%, median 5.1%, core 6.0%; 91% of spending above 2.0%June 2022: headline 9.1%, trimmed mean 6.8%, median 5.8%, core 5.9%; 91% of spending above 2.0%July 2022: headline 8.5%, trimmed mean 7.0%, median 5.8%, core 5.9%; 90% of spending above 2.0%August 2022: headline 8.3%, trimmed mean 7.4%, median 6.3%, core 6.3%; 91% of spending above 2.0%September 2022: headline 8.2%, trimmed mean 7.7%, median 6.7%, core 6.6%; 91% of spending above 2.0%October 2022: headline 7.7%, trimmed mean 7.3%, median 6.9%, core 6.3%; 87% of spending above 2.0%November 2022: headline 7.1%, trimmed mean 6.9%, median 7.1%, core 6.0%; 93% of spending above 2.0%December 2022: headline 6.5%, trimmed mean 6.5%, median 7.5%, core 5.7%; 89% of spending above 2.0%January 2023: headline 6.4%, trimmed mean 6.5%, median 7.8%, core 5.6%; 86% of spending above 2.0%February 2023: headline 6.0%, trimmed mean 6.5%, median 8.0%, core 5.5%; 85% of spending above 2.0%March 2023: headline 5.0%, trimmed mean 6.0%, median 7.9%, core 5.6%; 85% of spending above 2.0%April 2023: headline 4.9%, trimmed mean 5.6%, median 7.3%, core 5.5%; 82% of spending above 2.0%May 2023: headline 4.0%, trimmed mean 5.3%, median 6.3%, core 5.3%; 81% of spending above 2.0%June 2023: headline 3.0%, trimmed mean 4.8%, median 5.9%, core 4.8%; 79% of spending above 2.0%July 2023: headline 3.2%, trimmed mean 4.4%, median 5.8%, core 4.7%; 78% of spending above 2.0%August 2023: headline 3.7%, trimmed mean 4.3%, median 5.2%, core 4.3%; 79% of spending above 2.0%September 2023: headline 3.7%, trimmed mean 4.5%, median 5.1%, core 4.1%; 83% of spending above 2.0%October 2023: headline 3.2%, trimmed mean 4.0%, median 4.8%, core 4.0%; 75% of spending above 2.0%November 2023: headline 3.1%, trimmed mean 3.7%, median 4.8%, core 4.0%; 64% of spending above 2.0%December 2023: headline 3.4%, trimmed mean 3.6%, median 4.5%, core 3.9%; 64% of spending above 2.0%January 2024: headline 3.1%, trimmed mean 3.4%, median 4.3%, core 3.9%; 64% of spending above 2.0%February 2024: headline 3.2%, trimmed mean 3.2%, median 3.8%, core 3.8%; 62% of spending above 2.0%March 2024: headline 3.5%, trimmed mean 3.3%, median 4.5%, core 3.8%; 62% of spending above 2.0%April 2024: headline 3.4%, trimmed mean 3.2%, median 4.1%, core 3.6%; 60% of spending above 2.0%May 2024: headline 3.3%, trimmed mean 3.3%, median 4.1%, core 3.4%; 64% of spending above 2.0%June 2024: headline 3.0%, trimmed mean 3.0%, median 3.9%, core 3.3%; 65% of spending above 2.0%July 2024: headline 2.9%, trimmed mean 2.9%, median 3.8%, core 3.2%; 64% of spending above 2.0%August 2024: headline 2.5%, trimmed mean 2.9%, median 3.8%, core 3.2%; 62% of spending above 2.0%September 2024: headline 2.4%, trimmed mean 2.8%, median 3.9%, core 3.3%; 64% of spending above 2.0%October 2024: headline 2.6%, trimmed mean 2.9%, median 3.8%, core 3.3%; 67% of spending above 2.0%November 2024: headline 2.7%, trimmed mean 2.9%, median 3.6%, core 3.3%; 62% of spending above 2.0%December 2024: headline 2.9%, trimmed mean 2.9%, median 3.5%, core 3.2%; 64% of spending above 2.0%January 2025: headline 3.0%, trimmed mean 3.0%, median 3.6%, core 3.3%; 65% of spending above 2.0%February 2025: headline 2.8%, trimmed mean 2.9%, median 3.6%, core 3.1%; 65% of spending above 2.0%March 2025: headline 2.4%, trimmed mean 2.8%, median 3.7%, core 2.8%; 62% of spending above 2.0%April 2025: headline 2.3%, trimmed mean 2.8%, median 3.6%, core 2.8%; 62% of spending above 2.0%May 2025: headline 2.4%, trimmed mean 2.8%, median 3.7%, core 2.8%; 61% of spending above 2.0%June 2025: headline 2.7%, trimmed mean 3.0%, median 3.8%, core 2.9%; 71% of spending above 2.0%July 2025: headline 2.7%, trimmed mean 3.1%, median 3.9%, core 3.1%; 71% of spending above 2.0%August 2025: headline 2.9%, trimmed mean 3.1%, median 3.6%, core 3.1%; 72% of spending above 2.0%September 2025: headline 3.0%, trimmed mean 3.0%, median 3.4%, core 3.0%; 71% of spending above 2.0%November 2025: headline 2.7%, trimmed mean 2.7%, median 3.0%, core 2.6%; 75% of spending above 2.0%December 2025: headline 2.7%, trimmed mean 2.8%, median 3.3%, core 2.6%; 69% of spending above 2.0%January 2026: headline 2.4%, trimmed mean 2.6%, median 3.1%, core 2.5%; 67% of spending above 2.0%February 2026: headline 2.4%, trimmed mean 2.7%, median 3.0%, core 2.5%; 76% of spending above 2.0%March 2026: headline 3.3%, trimmed mean 2.8%, median 3.1%, core 2.6%; 74% of spending above 2.0%April 2026: headline 3.8%, trimmed mean 2.9%, median 3.3%, core 2.8%; 74% of spending above 2.0%May 2026: headline 4.2%, trimmed mean 3.0%, median 3.3%, core 2.9%; 76% of spending above 2.0%June 2026: headline 3.5%, trimmed mean 2.8%, median 3.3%, core 2.6%; 74% of spending above 2.0%July 2026: headline 3.4%, trimmed mean 2.7%, median 3.2%, core 2.5%; 76% of spending above 2.0%August 2026: headline 3.4%, trimmed mean 2.8%, median 3.1%, core 2.4%; 78% of spending above 2.0%September 2026: headline 3.7%, trimmed mean 2.8%, median 3.3%, core 2.6%; 77% of spending above 2.0%
Inspect the 63 slices of the basket (99.9% of spending covered)

Sorted from the largest fall to the largest rise. Weights are relative importance 12 months before the release, the base of a 12-month change. Rows marked derived are unlisted parts of a category: the weight is the parent's less its published children, and the price change is implied by the derived BLS effect. Unlisted parts under 0.1% of spending are rounding residue and are left out.

Category path12-month change, %Weight, % of spendingCumulative weight, %BasisEvidence
Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Eggs
Eggs		-20.60.1540.2 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.031 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5ea95a20-8e14-50e1-82bd-adceaf6feea6

Sep 2026 · -20.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
03c5e50e-4b65-56a9-a72f-8d164cc474dd

Aug 2026 · -0.036 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
af0f5f3a-be70-5c78-84dd-31be9c6b49da

Sep 2025 · 0.154 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2c64dda1-31ed-59c5-9bd4-ce3a905cf5dd

Services less energy services → Transportation services → Motor vehicle insurance
Motor vehicle insurance		-5.02.8043.0 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.136 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5edb1c66-59c3-5192-9831-bc7ecbd12356

Sep 2026 · -5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a2c644a5-34ac-527a-b782-7ae7265bd394

Aug 2026 · -0.142 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c279f1c5-9563-5aab-8c1e-2039990fb3e4

Sep 2025 · 2.804 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bad6e12c-8174-5871-8dae-72d902f60999

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Medical care commodities
Medical care commodities		-3.31.5034.5 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.048 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8e3d01bd-4072-55b9-b9a7-efa2fc08c56e

Sep 2026 · -3.3 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d425e112-0259-593c-a7b8-549c73ba7c95

Aug 2026 · -0.04 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f314a03e-09a1-5ee4-9115-6761f8b19903

Sep 2025 · 1.503 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d2812a1a-e1ab-5dfd-bff6-67e8da51306f

Food → Food at home → Dairy and related products → Cheese and related products
Cheese and related products		-3.00.2514.7 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8a0a4170-8168-5ab9-b165-6bb9c7604d23

Sep 2026 · -3 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
437d5997-0370-5268-abe9-00a8d46c5fae

Aug 2026 · -0.01 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8b607523-8b3c-5cca-bb03-c3294360f139

Sep 2025 · 0.251 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c9b0bcb7-2a01-5ac0-adf5-0d879db4e32b

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Education and communication commodities
Education and communication commodities		-2.60.7325.5 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.019 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
35f3e1c5-de98-52df-9a83-9970b06e9ab1

Sep 2026 · -2.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
45b56268-a903-5448-8bee-21df801278d7

Aug 2026 · -0.03 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
addde032-620d-5148-8445-0f42d450a52f

Sep 2025 · 0.732 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
cf43a192-c487-5a95-b614-1f381fffef69

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Household furnishings and supplies → Furniture and bedding
Furniture and bedding		-2.40.7916.2 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.021 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fd46a455-f9a1-5914-b62b-b61df8724b26

Sep 2026 · -2.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5f4053c8-d80c-5145-910c-135a502a0d3f

Aug 2026 · -0.007 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2342928c-9170-5549-bf68-24c977051bcc

Sep 2025 · 0.791 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
758b3831-f7e1-5c7c-ab7d-9364cedbace4

Services less energy services → Medical care services
Unlisted items in Medical care services		-1.62.0468.3 Derived: effect ÷ weight · trimmed tail
8 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.174 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e60475d4-3a1a-5dfc-9faf-a0977bd8cb89

Sep 2026 · 0.054 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a98869d0-e554-56e3-8f56-b1ed2c56d96e

Sep 2026 · 0.117 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4322085e-6075-5ec9-8106-120fc77487da

Sep 2026 · 0.036 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4d065040-7316-526c-986f-07cf003096ff

Sep 2025 · 6.765 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4a6f587d-46d2-5e63-aae7-d42ad4084f00

Sep 2025 · 0.949 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
64496c39-85e2-55e2-afff-67c1593132ad

Sep 2025 · 1.965 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
683032e5-02a2-5649-8bf3-e15aa85b236c

Sep 2025 · 1.805 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7d87ecff-7dcf-5a8c-a630-52941342027a

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Meats → Other meats
Other meats		-1.60.1838.5 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.003 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9b1350e0-4ed9-5269-a932-303cbc718927

Sep 2026 · -1.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
66ae88d9-edaf-5075-8a87-a2316933bfdc

Aug 2026 · 0.002 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
34b5de59-1433-51c9-b557-5b63f0e426c7

Sep 2025 · 0.183 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
eb4bed2e-57a1-5b50-9e40-3e6f11a53518

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Transportation commodities less motor fuel → Used cars and trucks
Used cars and trucks		-1.52.44010.9 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.033 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
27fa9f0a-f299-599c-b20d-0fd065c5a484

Sep 2026 · -1.5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1ecdadf6-9b09-53fd-84ab-290ff772d30a

Aug 2026 · -0.054 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4dc1ef9f-469e-5baf-8081-cfe3f4375e0b

Sep 2025 · 2.44 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ad586f76-46f1-5cca-8238-b0fd806e03db

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Household furnishings and supplies → Appliances
Appliances		-1.00.22111.1 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.003 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fd410eb4-d51b-5698-a02a-2fcb263816d2

Sep 2026 · -1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a07b14dc-5854-507b-9727-a6ee45bc41bf

Aug 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
763434bb-ce9c-5d48-bcdc-50814ec17510

Sep 2025 · 0.221 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
11523c5d-f549-5dc6-81ed-92931f9f947b

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits → Bananas
Bananas		-0.80.11311.3 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9d40ff19-a450-5ae8-b973-8aa28cf0fd70

Sep 2026 · -0.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
006ca9fb-aab5-5f82-bfb7-a91ee8990715

Aug 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d0679f92-f395-5926-8224-711d3d367540

Sep 2025 · 0.113 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7d4e8eff-5d38-5e33-aeb5-42094de41500

Food → Food at home → Other food at home → Fats and oils
Fats and oils		-0.80.24311.5 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.002 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
47decd04-5e96-5900-bd17-9202c1f12a68

Sep 2026 · -0.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d7d8b9c5-6527-5f61-993e-64080acd8909

Aug 2026 · 0 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ac9da56d-6fbe-5565-8f4e-1d31bf49757f

Sep 2025 · 0.243 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1bd8834c-99ee-5afd-9fee-bbafb1fd2803

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Poultry → Chicken
Chicken		-0.60.21611.7 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.002 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4a29b4aa-071a-5900-98ab-2b66704a4585

Sep 2026 · -0.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
78eae007-4658-570e-9300-76ee57e6c047

Aug 2026 · -0.006 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8fc9e8fe-6ce1-5002-ad0f-3a79e5315b76

Sep 2025 · 0.216 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
202526eb-b8bd-5ca2-aa6a-9f8fd847e3b2

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Meats → Pork
Unlisted items in Pork		-0.40.23912.0 Derived: effect ÷ weight
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b934e3c8-5283-59ec-a809-6abe06e8f181

Sep 2026 · 0 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
68a3ca9e-beec-5ffa-a7ba-8d1da2931c52

Sep 2025 · 0.288 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0700da67-e926-5a74-b8ba-30ff8d72886d

Sep 2025 · 0.049 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2120a7ac-5a4b-5617-98da-add63ccfc15a

Food → Food at home → Dairy and related products
Unlisted items in Dairy and related products		-0.40.28012.2 Derived: effect ÷ weight
6 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.005 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
dd734473-aece-583b-b43d-d69d49115c8e

Sep 2026 · -0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8a0a4170-8168-5ab9-b165-6bb9c7604d23

Sep 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ba4b97be-2fe5-5ab0-8d28-1a4934466ac9

Sep 2025 · 0.726 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9f811330-ae4d-534f-9630-5a7c0067b94c

Sep 2025 · 0.251 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c9b0bcb7-2a01-5ac0-adf5-0d879db4e32b

Sep 2025 · 0.195 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c35d2a3a-d486-5958-8f38-66d8335633d8

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Meats → Pork → Pork chops
Pork chops		-0.10.04912.3 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
68a3ca9e-beec-5ffa-a7ba-8d1da2931c52

Sep 2026 · -0.1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6d9cd1cc-5586-595d-9696-a67f5723708c

Aug 2026 · 0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f15325db-7126-5820-a99f-4a0e2ad65931

Sep 2025 · 0.049 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2120a7ac-5a4b-5617-98da-add63ccfc15a

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Transportation commodities less motor fuel
Unlisted items in Transportation commodities less motor fuel		0.40.50012.8 Derived: effect ÷ weight
6 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.009 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f013ff53-e18d-5edf-8874-e1adb845d932

Sep 2026 · 0.022 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f9229218-d4fa-5718-bd44-ed91ded9288e

Sep 2026 · -0.033 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
27fa9f0a-f299-599c-b20d-0fd065c5a484

Sep 2025 · 7.247 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9c7e5b0f-6bb5-5cc2-8a3f-5eca505a057c

Sep 2025 · 4.307 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c109eeda-79f7-546b-8def-6a8918bddddb

Sep 2025 · 2.44 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ad586f76-46f1-5cca-8238-b0fd806e03db

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Transportation commodities less motor fuel → New vehicles
New vehicles		0.64.30717.1 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.022 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f9229218-d4fa-5718-bd44-ed91ded9288e

Sep 2026 · 0.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
18cd3022-8f9b-5fe0-808b-8584ead37d95

Aug 2026 · 0.02 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9182b697-31b0-56ee-8b38-4e98a458ca58

Sep 2025 · 4.307 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c109eeda-79f7-546b-8def-6a8918bddddb

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh vegetables → Potatoes
Potatoes		1.10.08717.2 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d0143397-d7b9-5417-aee2-f782e7ab8e40

Sep 2026 · 1.1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bdd7c164-c5c0-51c7-8141-9f013c5b2115

Aug 2026 · 0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0e2eaf89-37b1-5f86-986f-b9a4cf02d770

Sep 2025 · 0.087 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2316b27b-240d-55fd-b9dd-7fe679bf9159

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Household furnishings and supplies
Unlisted items in Household furnishings and supplies		1.32.37619.6 Derived: effect ÷ weight
6 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.007 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d066ad89-2769-5d39-9ba2-9e8405d79533

Sep 2026 · -0.003 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fd410eb4-d51b-5698-a02a-2fcb263816d2

Sep 2026 · -0.021 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fd46a455-f9a1-5914-b62b-b61df8724b26

Sep 2025 · 3.388 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5a3be2b1-2025-5253-aafa-d82b2dcb541a

Sep 2025 · 0.221 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
11523c5d-f549-5dc6-81ed-92931f9f947b

Sep 2025 · 0.791 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
758b3831-f7e1-5c7c-ab7d-9364cedbace4

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Alcoholic beverages
Alcoholic beverages		1.40.82820.4 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
95749c5d-de39-5bf8-9947-d470853af1d2

Sep 2026 · 1.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
43a81f3a-fc6c-5b6d-a9e6-306f86fb6fad

Aug 2026 · 0.014 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9d8a756e-4009-53a3-90a0-14d910957e98

Sep 2025 · 0.828 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
92397d36-ee4c-5ed7-8edd-0095c3fa78d4

Food → Food at home → Other food at home → Other foods
Other foods		1.41.73322.1 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.024 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c2a94d6f-567b-593c-b8be-7a58c8837f02

Sep 2026 · 1.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
dcca4269-6e87-54f6-9196-ddaeef365737

Aug 2026 · 0.036 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
334abc6a-a37f-5702-9576-316c02c27b39

Sep 2025 · 1.733 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bc79d8d9-5f14-5119-ad11-9aa30ca6e739

Food → Food at home → Cereals and bakery products → Bakery products
Bakery products		1.70.76522.9 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
55e86d9b-cc5d-5e53-88c4-eecc39d70017

Sep 2026 · 1.7 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
554dd801-cd14-5378-989b-0207b952ada7

Aug 2026 · 0.018 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
22162636-b39b-5348-8ad0-e5ddf62712c4

Sep 2025 · 0.765 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ec3d284f-0705-5ac3-ab44-88edbea2e0cf

Services less energy services → Medical care services → Physicians' services
Physicians' services		2.11.80524.7 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.036 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4d065040-7316-526c-986f-07cf003096ff

Sep 2026 · 2.1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
319a75f3-0a5d-518b-8431-881a9298a31e

Aug 2026 · 0.034 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8a9ec835-0dcd-5567-8335-2e925186fe7b

Sep 2025 · 1.805 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7d87ecff-7dcf-5a8c-a630-52941342027a

Food → Food at home → Dairy and related products → Milk
Milk		2.30.19524.9 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ba4b97be-2fe5-5ab0-8d28-1a4934466ac9

Sep 2026 · 2.3 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7cf019be-81e8-574a-8997-4b2d0c99a366

Aug 2026 · 0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c70d538c-ca9d-5baa-be92-6fd267db1c18

Sep 2025 · 0.195 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c35d2a3a-d486-5958-8f38-66d8335633d8

Services less energy services → Recreation services
Recreation services		2.33.43928.3 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.076 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0fdcea79-c263-5f18-8445-643ab3dfa303

Sep 2026 · 2.3 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fab7ab23-dde2-5f66-ad7e-4dfeff9a7b26

Aug 2026 · 0.079 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a0f84b29-093d-508f-947a-de39f1a6089d

Sep 2025 · 3.439 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
95c89f02-8360-5c89-8c12-52751fe26327

Food → Food away from home
Unlisted items in Food away from home		2.30.12928.5 Derived: effect ÷ weight
8 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.187 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a29937be-c578-5668-aa72-4461db7a1557

Sep 2026 · 0.09 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1b875a2d-d4f1-5677-b02f-34b6349a6791

Sep 2026 · 0.086 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d84bd79a-4060-506f-a1b4-a0ec94322215

Sep 2026 · 0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5f42f55e-a4fd-5474-a54d-c646fdcddb48

Sep 2025 · 5.653 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
80f5a2e1-2966-56ed-bff2-2e7aab63c9f1

Sep 2025 · 2.451 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c51b36e4-8986-54ef-b19f-4a5c43232765

Sep 2025 · 2.828 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
cce24db4-8d7c-50a7-abf0-70a2326a9907

Sep 2025 · 0.245 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6a28507d-035a-514e-b3df-36126d28c2c7

Services less energy services → Shelter
Unlisted items in Shelter		2.40.42128.9 Derived: effect ÷ weight
8 rows

Sep 2026 · 1.142 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bf3d78e9-ef19-5b1a-afec-69b43068196a

Sep 2026 · 0.064 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b1792aa0-5be1-52fd-921c-517814381d81

Sep 2026 · 0.853 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
79b38d1a-1eda-5ed5-bd7c-23afe1dbc457

Sep 2026 · 0.215 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d0cef4e5-41b3-507e-826d-1e1cb80107f2

Sep 2025 · 35.471 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3b2df5fa-72fb-59e2-94ee-26e169ed66cf

Sep 2025 · 1.363 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
778324d1-57b0-5e95-a293-28c57b2f0978

Sep 2025 · 26.231 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a1cbee82-3cd6-5c56-adbc-5eac7cd3a0b0

Sep 2025 · 7.456 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b17e02ce-06e7-5bc1-8099-3dfa7989df15

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Other goods
Unlisted items in Other goods		2.40.79629.7 Derived: effect ÷ weight
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.048 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d701b0e1-d6ea-55ed-b0c1-47182cd08931

Sep 2026 · 0.029 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f6806ce2-2bf4-515e-9465-2e495276da84

Sep 2025 · 1.287 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1e589c6f-9c35-5dd0-b8dc-c2fb8e0df196

Sep 2025 · 0.491 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2afb5f98-45af-5bf4-91ae-df9770b2e200

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh vegetables
Unlisted items in Fresh vegetables		2.40.37130.1 Derived: effect ÷ weight
6 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
03e4433b-3098-5405-8a78-27362002c5c3

Sep 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d0143397-d7b9-5417-aee2-f782e7ab8e40

Sep 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a3723119-dedc-54af-9b2b-e801a6e816ae

Sep 2025 · 0.547 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8b47b9d0-401f-5c58-a2b9-8cf57211f9be

Sep 2025 · 0.087 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2316b27b-240d-55fd-b9dd-7fe679bf9159

Sep 2025 · 0.089 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6defb7d7-2849-50bf-acd1-54e8b8745b92

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Processed fruits and vegetables
Processed fruits and vegetables		2.70.22130.3 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.009 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
453eea0f-791e-5e7d-aca7-961a0d03b312

Sep 2026 · 2.7 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1b113eaf-8315-5e15-a771-19bf397e1fc7

Aug 2026 · 0.009 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3da09463-f1c1-55c7-8fc6-680ada52ecc1

Sep 2025 · 0.221 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f7eded40-ac0c-51ec-ab87-e94fcd70aba6

Services less energy services → Shelter → Rent of primary residence
Rent of primary residence		2.87.45637.7 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.215 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d0cef4e5-41b3-507e-826d-1e1cb80107f2

Sep 2026 · 2.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8bb84751-0453-5e68-a86d-5490f05e7b5f

Aug 2026 · 0.211 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4cc80eaf-34d3-5144-94a8-ca00bf1f3dda

Sep 2025 · 7.456 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b17e02ce-06e7-5bc1-8099-3dfa7989df15

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Meats → Beef and veal
Unlisted items in Beef and veal		3.00.27138.0 Derived: effect ÷ weight
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.02 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
47ef0891-b225-5f97-8c7c-f02ef9c99b87

Sep 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9ee0ed5d-6df9-5aed-b645-9a1facda4a1c

Sep 2025 · 0.491 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e093c361-43a2-5ece-ae9b-388d111cd88e

Sep 2025 · 0.22 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
23517d60-3b91-53ff-8cc6-d9fc0f313a4c

Services less energy services → Education and communication services
Education and communication services		3.14.90742.9 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.156 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4724ce48-a65b-5505-b447-73089cf36cf2

Sep 2026 · 3.1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
54032d62-f423-54db-9bda-ef6842e0fa5f

Aug 2026 · 0.157 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
20c3f840-2710-519b-81d5-7e2777e35f28

Sep 2025 · 4.907 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a1193c4f-e01f-5aad-b6c6-0fd6b0859e9e

Food → Food at home → Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials
Unlisted items in Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials		3.20.75543.7 Derived: effect ÷ weight
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.038 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b038a76f-b204-5baf-a9b1-889cb00e4ba6

Sep 2026 · 0.014 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4cc7ae0b-defc-5b41-b025-3fe16ff3e8ea

Sep 2025 · 0.908 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
493f108a-b696-586e-a47d-f2788c1e97a0

Sep 2025 · 0.153 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bbed950a-889b-57ef-9250-7689168b237b

Food → Food at home → Cereals and bakery products → Cereals and cereal products
Cereals and cereal products		3.20.32644.0 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.01 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3323d2bd-5700-57f2-86c1-5dfbc410128e

Sep 2026 · 3.2 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6ddf7405-7fad-5ffc-88ac-c3fd72c3e177

Aug 2026 · 0.01 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
69284ef1-0b09-5127-a6c9-65abb748ce5b

Sep 2025 · 0.326 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e7d65fbb-3d21-5d01-8064-0ed4bf285794

Food → Food away from home → Limited service meals and snacks
Limited service meals and snacks		3.22.82846.8 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.086 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d84bd79a-4060-506f-a1b4-a0ec94322215

Sep 2026 · 3.2 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
17f8e0cd-0244-5703-b121-72ad2cfdc4f9

Aug 2026 · 0.087 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f1894876-83ca-5d7e-8c0f-ebce75a0c95f

Sep 2025 · 2.828 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
cce24db4-8d7c-50a7-abf0-70a2326a9907

Services less energy services → Shelter → Owners' equivalent rent of residences
Owners' equivalent rent of residences		3.326.23173.1 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.853 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
79b38d1a-1eda-5ed5-bd7c-23afe1dbc457

Sep 2026 · 3.3 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f42a910c-c947-52b8-8bf6-17db329faa0c

Aug 2026 · 0.802 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
09abf116-5584-50dc-9844-d379183ecbde

Sep 2025 · 26.231 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a1cbee82-3cd6-5c56-adbc-5eac7cd3a0b0

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Apparel
Apparel		3.42.50475.6 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.082 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d529f9e6-3563-56b6-a339-a72f1a7d5df0

Sep 2026 · 3.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6a31ad3e-2b0f-573b-a66a-a00f04d7b83c

Aug 2026 · 0.086 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0b484b77-cb75-534e-9d7b-9cbaf86d41a5

Sep 2025 · 2.504 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
71dc10ce-0fb0-50b6-95c2-e35e36f90d65

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Recreation commodities
Recreation commodities		3.61.83077.5 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.07 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8cc039d8-e74c-52e4-8eca-a42f26198ab7

Sep 2026 · 3.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b283c0ff-c4a0-5150-9d80-fc2f94653dbd

Aug 2026 · 0.059 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9f24326b-1d3e-509e-9c88-8a1eaf485f31

Sep 2025 · 1.83 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8bbdceec-e4e0-58b7-99e1-bbde057fd1ee

Food → Food away from home → Full service meals and snacks
Full service meals and snacks		3.82.45179.9 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.09 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1b875a2d-d4f1-5677-b02f-34b6349a6791

Sep 2026 · 3.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c45aa5a1-7963-5966-96e0-0c00ee18192d

Aug 2026 · 0.084 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
496b9ca6-c234-5d83-bc6f-d8aaabc46d00

Sep 2025 · 2.451 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c51b36e4-8986-54ef-b19f-4a5c43232765

Food → Food away from home → Other food away from home
Other food away from home		4.00.24580.2 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5f42f55e-a4fd-5474-a54d-c646fdcddb48

Sep 2026 · 4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
99339a8c-8fa6-5c4b-b2f0-022d5d96fb7a

Aug 2026 · 0.009 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a251c9fd-7611-5955-afc5-8c16fcb291f2

Sep 2025 · 0.245 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6a28507d-035a-514e-b3df-36126d28c2c7

Services less energy services → Transportation services
Unlisted items in Transportation services		4.12.58482.7 Derived: effect ÷ weight
6 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.171 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
185f98cd-d4be-5823-8e03-e940514ae16f

Sep 2026 · 0.201 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
76d528ad-b5dd-5475-8de8-7a2043f0b50b

Sep 2026 · -0.136 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5edb1c66-59c3-5192-9831-bc7ecbd12356

Sep 2025 · 6.243 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42c87ec0-845a-5283-b278-a33572767c66

Sep 2025 · 0.855 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f722e9db-39ca-5de8-b6aa-d5c25363b9ee

Sep 2025 · 2.804 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bad6e12c-8174-5871-8dae-72d902f60999

Energy → Energy services → Electricity
Electricity		4.42.46585.2 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.109 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fb2634fe-6ad0-55f4-9bf4-98aa8fb8ac77

Sep 2026 · 4.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c25c9a3a-2ec1-5e1a-95d5-2c2c1acc0c61

Aug 2026 · 0.096 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
adc3b1ef-51c1-54b7-8d44-e97e2e5a26d3

Sep 2025 · 2.465 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fe3a13c2-b897-5dab-8422-ebef6f2c4a08

Services less energy services → Shelter → Lodging away from home
Lodging away from home		4.41.36386.6 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.064 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b1792aa0-5be1-52fd-921c-517814381d81

Sep 2026 · 4.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
70ba8fa6-c535-5b31-976a-7a5ccc1a1956

Aug 2026 · 0.049 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
edfc9bab-ed9e-56af-b41a-fdbc1f1c9ba2

Sep 2025 · 1.363 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
778324d1-57b0-5e95-a293-28c57b2f0978

Services less energy services → Other personal services
Other personal services		4.51.65788.2 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.071 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6c240b73-862e-5f81-9d82-2e0b74f9ba9d

Sep 2026 · 4.5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5c2d5454-d95e-5b67-bbe5-5c88518270cf

Aug 2026 · 0.069 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5fd962f5-9130-534d-973a-69e2c36f39f1

Sep 2025 · 1.657 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ed8c2baf-4ee8-5684-8d58-5aad78455b5d

Services less energy services → Water and sewer and trash collection services
Water and sewer and trash collection services		4.81.08989.3 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.054 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bc51fbd6-e9b3-5b7d-995d-33bc75d51691

Sep 2026 · 4.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
314e8240-a4b0-5d6f-a861-7d7ae7b2e16c

Aug 2026 · 0.053 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7edefb96-de5d-5969-8d07-521f97514feb

Sep 2025 · 1.089 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4bf9a00f-c52e-5c87-bb71-fc342cbc614f

Energy → Energy services → Utility (piped) gas service
Utility (piped) gas service		5.00.77090.1 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.038 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
616436b9-60c1-5065-97f5-6c957ba32a01

Sep 2026 · 5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
de593fdf-0a41-5f1e-a466-5445fd2951a6

Aug 2026 · 0.034 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1c291f6a-ad06-52f9-bd06-63efab1b5a0a

Sep 2025 · 0.77 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
cc3144ad-7a72-5abd-83ce-df07e89e6369

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Meats → Beef and veal → Uncooked ground beef
Uncooked ground beef		5.40.22090.3 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9ee0ed5d-6df9-5aed-b645-9a1facda4a1c

Sep 2026 · 5.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
756c9021-2100-5d5f-8395-b46351c1718d

Aug 2026 · 0.016 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6c8a5caa-2d1a-53ae-ba1b-771981b14817

Sep 2025 · 0.22 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
23517d60-3b91-53ff-8cc6-d9fc0f313a4c

Food → Food at home → Other food at home → Sugar and sweets
Sugar and sweets		5.50.33790.7 Published BLS rate
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.018 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2b71d0e3-63ee-5b5b-9dc2-d8e4ad39e524

Sep 2026 · 5.5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
98b850cd-8189-5a5f-9453-0215df65ba00

Aug 2026 · 0.02 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
af7cbd8e-4a7b-573a-a2fc-f4b23fc292c7

Sep 2025 · 0.337 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a5f05b7d-f74a-5e6a-a7e3-c3f9fac32eda

Services less energy services → Medical care services → Hospital services
Hospital services		5.61.96592.6 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.117 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4322085e-6075-5ec9-8106-120fc77487da

Sep 2026 · 5.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
03ba9a61-ae23-5bbf-b518-f26bed40a7d8

Aug 2026 · 0.107 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
aef560e8-94d0-52bb-b63b-dee34e7548ba

Sep 2025 · 1.965 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
683032e5-02a2-5649-8bf3-e15aa85b236c

Services less energy services
Unlisted items in Services less energy services		5.61.06493.7 Derived: effect ÷ weight · trimmed tail
16 rows

Sep 2026 · 1.904 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fe454a56-7db6-55e4-938d-831f6cf9d7ca

Sep 2026 · 0.156 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4724ce48-a65b-5505-b447-73089cf36cf2

Sep 2026 · 0.174 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e60475d4-3a1a-5dfc-9faf-a0977bd8cb89

Sep 2026 · 0.071 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6c240b73-862e-5f81-9d82-2e0b74f9ba9d

Sep 2026 · 0.076 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0fdcea79-c263-5f18-8445-643ab3dfa303

Sep 2026 · 1.142 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bf3d78e9-ef19-5b1a-afec-69b43068196a

Sep 2026 · 0.171 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
185f98cd-d4be-5823-8e03-e940514ae16f

Sep 2026 · 0.054 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bc51fbd6-e9b3-5b7d-995d-33bc75d51691

Sep 2025 · 60.635 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ac575c2c-d6fd-5016-adc2-2f1a0afa5fe5

Sep 2025 · 4.907 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a1193c4f-e01f-5aad-b6c6-0fd6b0859e9e

Sep 2025 · 6.765 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4a6f587d-46d2-5e63-aae7-d42ad4084f00

Sep 2025 · 1.657 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ed8c2baf-4ee8-5684-8d58-5aad78455b5d

Sep 2025 · 3.439 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
95c89f02-8360-5c89-8c12-52751fe26327

Sep 2025 · 35.471 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3b2df5fa-72fb-59e2-94ee-26e169ed66cf

Sep 2025 · 6.243 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42c87ec0-845a-5283-b278-a33572767c66

Sep 2025 · 1.089 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4bf9a00f-c52e-5c87-bb71-fc342cbc614f

Services less energy services → Medical care services → Dental services
Dental services		6.00.94994.6 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.054 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a98869d0-e554-56e3-8f56-b1ed2c56d96e

Sep 2026 · 6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
afc41b18-4b40-5d9a-8b2f-48c65caf9b19

Aug 2026 · 0.045 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e71c7708-7729-5842-83c0-1ed4757d2918

Sep 2025 · 0.949 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
64496c39-85e2-55e2-afff-67c1593132ad

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits
Unlisted items in Fresh fruits		6.40.34595.0 Derived: effect ÷ weight · trimmed tail
6 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.026 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
aa12c1fa-725b-5a51-a8f0-b487df0d57e1

Sep 2026 · 0.005 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1946f37c-9bd0-55d5-9e01-d060200df1b8

Sep 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9d40ff19-a450-5ae8-b973-8aa28cf0fd70

Sep 2025 · 0.543 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ab3567cd-226b-5727-83e6-865fefbd8614

Sep 2025 · 0.085 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7a2f7de6-9373-5723-bcf4-14ee98557ea4

Sep 2025 · 0.113 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7d4e8eff-5d38-5e33-aeb5-42094de41500

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Other goods → Tobacco and smoking products
Tobacco and smoking products		6.40.49195.5 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.029 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f6806ce2-2bf4-515e-9465-2e495276da84

Sep 2026 · 6.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
96363df1-3dc8-5123-90e4-a6d14c7633a4

Aug 2026 · 0.029 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
aeb499b0-994f-543d-9441-2d588989fe5d

Sep 2025 · 0.491 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2afb5f98-45af-5bf4-91ae-df9770b2e200

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh vegetables → Tomatoes
Tomatoes		6.80.08995.6 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a3723119-dedc-54af-9b2b-e801a6e816ae

Sep 2026 · 6.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
393a2fae-66f2-5b01-8e6e-019b3d4848fd

Aug 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
35f306a2-c957-57f4-971a-a04672b5eb40

Sep 2025 · 0.089 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6defb7d7-2849-50bf-acd1-54e8b8745b92

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Fish and seafood
Fish and seafood		6.90.24295.8 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.02 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f994a2a4-4cff-5b76-ba05-4c792ad10a97

Sep 2026 · 6.9 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
34e2eb9f-461a-5bb5-b8a3-45317e81a17a

Aug 2026 · 0.019 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a59b0202-dfb0-551b-9c4d-2adf163b98be

Sep 2025 · 0.242 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1e4bba15-99f2-5ae4-9947-12e1ad33fb5f

Food → Food at home → Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials → Coffee
Coffee		7.10.15396.0 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.014 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4cc7ae0b-defc-5b41-b025-3fe16ff3e8ea

Sep 2026 · 7.1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ef4f86ed-c571-587d-860e-e06e114fe616

Aug 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e1aad458-3369-584b-9814-2f928a7c0910

Sep 2025 · 0.153 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bbed950a-889b-57ef-9250-7689168b237b

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits → Apples
Apples		7.50.08596.0 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.005 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1946f37c-9bd0-55d5-9e01-d060200df1b8

Sep 2026 · 7.5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7013802a-ed02-5b76-9dcb-7117629d04df

Aug 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
851d260b-28e6-563e-bc30-598ad572c104

Sep 2025 · 0.085 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7a2f7de6-9373-5723-bcf4-14ee98557ea4

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Poultry → Other uncooked poultry including turkey
Other uncooked poultry including turkey		8.40.07196.1 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.006 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c307a9ca-87ed-5f79-967d-d28a25eb11ff

Sep 2026 · 8.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
343b27e2-3a97-5c22-b605-4ed6b24247d6

Aug 2026 · 0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b6161fc2-6c78-549e-98c5-648013ac37bb

Sep 2025 · 0.071 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e5404f28-791d-5d3e-8cc8-b0ad83b6e5c7

Services less energy services → Transportation services → Airline fares
Airline fares		22.40.85597.0 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.201 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
76d528ad-b5dd-5475-8de8-7a2043f0b50b

Sep 2026 · 22.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f123fd37-b0ea-54ea-9062-7db0de4c1129

Aug 2026 · 0.204 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ce6f796f-87b5-5ed1-8975-90054f752b8d

Sep 2025 · 0.855 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f722e9db-39ca-5de8-b6aa-d5c25363b9ee

Energy → Energy commodities → Motor fuel → Gasoline (all types)
Gasoline (all types)		34.22.94999.9 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 1.093 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a736ffa1-d034-592c-bfaa-9efa514876e6

Sep 2026 · 34.2 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8dc84315-a2f5-5bcc-8e25-f331e806a58a

Aug 2026 · 0.87 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
65ff5981-7b3a-5ac6-9677-2ab74350ce19

Sep 2025 · 2.949 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
34505ef6-88b3-585e-bc2b-b41e4f43694d

Energy → Energy commodities → Fuel oil and other fuels → Fuel oil
Fuel oil		74.20.074100.0 Published BLS rate · trimmed tail
4 rows

Sep 2026 · 0.058 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d3e8a3ae-de67-56da-903f-6771d95bd1df

Sep 2026 · 74.2 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a0674648-4edf-5034-ac2e-21544641937c

Aug 2026 · 0.04 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6f6e7a94-27ee-5fdd-86b8-4e599e5cefbc

Sep 2025 · 0.074 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
973ed6dd-74fd-5bf9-8362-ea2e83522c02

Inspect every release in the trend (56 months)
ReleaseHeadline, %Core, %Trimmed mean, %Median, %Spending above 2.0%, %Coverage, %
Sep 20263.72.62.83.37799.9
Aug 20263.42.42.83.17899.6
Jul 20263.42.52.73.27699.9
Jun 20263.52.62.83.37499.6
May 20264.22.93.03.37699.9
Apr 20263.82.82.93.37499.9
Mar 20263.32.62.83.17499.5
Feb 20262.42.52.73.07699.9
Jan 20262.42.52.63.16799.6
Dec 20252.72.62.83.36999.8
Nov 20252.72.62.73.07599.8
Sep 20253.03.03.03.47199.8
Aug 20252.93.13.13.67295.8
Jul 20252.73.13.13.97199.6
Jun 20252.72.93.03.87199.9
May 20252.42.82.83.76199.5
Apr 20252.32.82.83.66299.6
Mar 20252.42.82.83.76299.9
Feb 20252.83.12.93.66599.9
Jan 20253.03.33.03.66599.6
Dec 20242.93.22.93.56499.9
Nov 20242.73.32.93.66299.1
Oct 20242.63.32.93.86799.8
Sep 20242.43.32.83.96499.9
Aug 20242.53.22.93.86299.9
Jul 20242.93.22.93.86499.9
Jun 20243.03.33.03.96599.4
May 20243.33.43.34.16499.7
Apr 20243.43.63.24.16099.7
Mar 20243.53.83.34.56299.5
Feb 20243.23.83.23.86299.8
Jan 20243.13.93.44.36499.9
Dec 20233.43.93.64.56499.6
Nov 20233.14.03.74.86499.5
Oct 20233.24.04.04.87595.7
Sep 20233.74.14.55.18399.7
Aug 20233.74.34.35.27999.8
Jul 20233.24.74.45.87899.8
Jun 20233.04.84.85.97999.9
May 20234.05.35.36.38199.9
Apr 20234.95.55.67.38299.4
Mar 20235.05.66.07.98599.8
Feb 20236.05.56.58.08599.8
Jan 20236.45.66.57.88699.8
Dec 20226.55.76.57.58999.8
Nov 20227.16.06.97.19399.8
Oct 20227.76.37.36.98799.5
Sep 20228.26.67.76.79199.5
Aug 20228.36.37.46.39199.9
Jul 20228.55.97.05.89099.9
Jun 20229.15.96.85.89199.9
May 20228.66.06.85.19199.9
Apr 20228.36.26.54.89099.9
Mar 20228.56.56.34.59199.9
Feb 20227.96.45.94.39099.9
Jan 20227.56.05.44.19199.9

These are Exalytics calculations from the published BLS 12-month category rates and relative importance in this snapshot, not the Cleveland Fed's median or trimmed-mean CPI, which use about 45 components, split shelter by region and trim seasonally adjusted monthly changes. Owners' equivalent rent is a single slice of about a quarter of spending here, so the median often lands on it; the trimmed mean is less lumpy. Robust measures describe where most prices are; they do not say why prices rose.

Pinpoint the pressure

Contributions to inflation above 2.0%

September 2026 · 12-month effects, not seasonally adjusted. Uses the release, basis and reference pace selected above.

Ranked at the finest level with a published BLS effect, so parent categories are replaced by their children and shelter and rent are never counted twice. An item's excess is its published effect minus the effect it would have had if its prices had risen at 2.0%: its basket weight 12 months earlier × 2.0%. The excesses add up exactly to the gap between all-items inflation and 2.0%. These are accounting contributions, not proof of underlying economic causes.

Gap to 2.0%+1.738 ppAll-items effects 3.738 pp less 2.000 pp at the reference pace
Top 5 items above the pace+1.690 pp97% of the gap
Items below the pace-0.587 ppOffsets stay in the total
Items needed for 80% of the gap3Of 30 items above the pace, largest first

From 2.0% to all-items inflation

Percentage points of all-items CPI, 12 months to September 2026. Each step is an item's excess over the reference pace.

Reference pace, 2.0% a yearEvery item rising at the reference pace 2.000
Gasoline (all types)Energy → Energy commodities → Motor fuel → Gasoline (all types) +1.034
Owners' equivalent rent of residencesServices less energy services → Shelter → Owners' equivalent rent of residences +0.328
Airline faresServices less energy services → Transportation services → Airline fares +0.184
Hospital servicesServices less energy services → Medical care services → Hospital services +0.078
Rent of primary residenceServices less energy services → Shelter → Rent of primary residence +0.066
Other items above 2.0% (25)Electricity, Education and communication services, Fuel oil, Full service meals and snacks… +0.567
Items below 2.0% (19)Largest: Motor vehicle insurance -0.192, Used cars and trucks -0.082, Medical care commodities -0.078 -0.587
Unlisted parts, missing weights and roundingDerived remainders and rounding +0.068
All-items effectsPublished headline 3.74% 3.738

Steps: +2.257 pp from 30 items above the pace, -0.587 pp from items below it, +0.068 pp in unlisted parts and 0.000 pp residual (items without a base-period weight, unlisted parts whose effect rounds to zero, and rounding). Published headline: 3.74%; it can differ from the effect total by BLS rounding.

Gasoline (all types)

Energy → Energy commodities → Motor fuel → Gasoline (all types)

+1.034 pp Effect 1.093 pp − 0.059 pp at 2.0% · 59% of the gap
  • Own price change34.2% over 12 months
  • Last 3 months46.8% a year · faster than its 12-month change
  • Months above the pace7 of 11 published

Building: the last three months ran faster than the 12-month change.

Owners' equivalent rent of residences

Services less energy services → Shelter → Owners' equivalent rent of residences

+0.328 pp Effect 0.853 pp − 0.525 pp at 2.0% · 19% of the gap
  • Own price change3.3% over 12 months
  • Last 3 months3.2% a year · close to its 12-month change
  • Months above the pace10 of 10 published

Persistent: above the 2.0% pace in 10 of 10 published months.

Airline fares

Services less energy services → Transportation services → Airline fares

+0.184 pp Effect 0.201 pp − 0.017 pp at 2.0% · 11% of the gap
  • Own price change22.4% over 12 months
  • Last 3 months27.3% a year · faster than its 12-month change
  • Months above the pace10 of 10 published

Building: the last three months ran faster than the 12-month change.

Hospital services

Services less energy services → Medical care services → Hospital services

+0.078 pp Effect 0.117 pp − 0.039 pp at 2.0% · 4% of the gap
  • Own price change5.6% over 12 months
  • Last 3 months4.9% a year · slower than its 12-month change
  • Months above the pace7 of 10 published

Uneven: above the 2.0% pace in 7 of 10 published months.

Rent of primary residence

Services less energy services → Shelter → Rent of primary residence

+0.066 pp Effect 0.215 pp − 0.149 pp at 2.0% · 4% of the gap
  • Own price change2.8% over 12 months
  • Last 3 months2.8% a year · close to its 12-month change
  • Months above the pace8 of 10 published

Persistent: above the 2.0% pace in 8 of 10 published months.

Five broad buckets and the full contribution tree

Food, energy, core goods, shelter and other core services. The last is core services minus shelter, a derived difference. If shelter is missing, core services stays unsplit.

Broad bucketEffect on all itemsBasis
Food+0.338 ppPublished BLS effect
Energy+1.353 ppPublished BLS effect
Commodities less food and energy commodities+0.143 ppPublished BLS effect
Shelter+1.142 ppPublished BLS effect
Other core services+0.762 ppDerived difference

Below: a disjoint frontier of published items and explicit remainders. Base weight is relative importance 12 months before the release. “Change in effect” compares this effect with the previous calendar month's effect on the same basis; it is not the item's price change. Missing values stay blank. Price-only descendants remain on the topic page.

Category pathEffect, ppBase weight, %At 2.0%, ppExcess, ppOwn rate, %Last 3 months, % a yearMonths above paceChange in effect, ppEvidence
Energy → Energy commodities → Motor fuel → Gasoline (all types)
Published effect		+1.093 pp2.9490.059+1.034 34.2046.87 of 11+0.223
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 1.093 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a736ffa1-d034-592c-bfaa-9efa514876e6

Sep 2026 · 34.2 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8dc84315-a2f5-5bcc-8e25-f331e806a58a

Aug 2026 · 0.87 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
65ff5981-7b3a-5ac6-9677-2ab74350ce19

Sep 2025 · 2.949 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
34505ef6-88b3-585e-bc2b-b41e4f43694d

Services less energy services → Shelter → Owners' equivalent rent of residences
Published effect		+0.853 pp26.2310.525+0.328 3.303.210 of 10+0.051
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.853 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
79b38d1a-1eda-5ed5-bd7c-23afe1dbc457

Sep 2026 · 3.3 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f42a910c-c947-52b8-8bf6-17db329faa0c

Aug 2026 · 0.802 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
09abf116-5584-50dc-9844-d379183ecbde

Sep 2025 · 26.231 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a1cbee82-3cd6-5c56-adbc-5eac7cd3a0b0

Services less energy services → Transportation services → Airline fares
Published effect		+0.201 pp0.8550.017+0.184 22.4027.310 of 10-0.003
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.201 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
76d528ad-b5dd-5475-8de8-7a2043f0b50b

Sep 2026 · 22.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f123fd37-b0ea-54ea-9062-7db0de4c1129

Aug 2026 · 0.204 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ce6f796f-87b5-5ed1-8975-90054f752b8d

Sep 2025 · 0.855 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f722e9db-39ca-5de8-b6aa-d5c25363b9ee

Services less energy services → Medical care services → Hospital services
Published effect		+0.117 pp1.9650.039+0.078 5.604.97 of 10+0.010
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.117 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4322085e-6075-5ec9-8106-120fc77487da

Sep 2026 · 5.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
03ba9a61-ae23-5bbf-b518-f26bed40a7d8

Aug 2026 · 0.107 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
aef560e8-94d0-52bb-b63b-dee34e7548ba

Sep 2025 · 1.965 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
683032e5-02a2-5649-8bf3-e15aa85b236c

Services less energy services → Shelter → Rent of primary residence
Published effect		+0.215 pp7.4560.149+0.066 2.802.88 of 10+0.004
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.215 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d0cef4e5-41b3-507e-826d-1e1cb80107f2

Sep 2026 · 2.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8bb84751-0453-5e68-a86d-5490f05e7b5f

Aug 2026 · 0.211 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4cc80eaf-34d3-5144-94a8-ca00bf1f3dda

Sep 2025 · 7.456 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b17e02ce-06e7-5bc1-8099-3dfa7989df15

Energy → Energy services → Electricity
Published effect		+0.109 pp2.4650.049+0.060 4.400.44 of 10+0.013
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.109 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fb2634fe-6ad0-55f4-9bf4-98aa8fb8ac77

Sep 2026 · 4.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c25c9a3a-2ec1-5e1a-95d5-2c2c1acc0c61

Aug 2026 · 0.096 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
adc3b1ef-51c1-54b7-8d44-e97e2e5a26d3

Sep 2025 · 2.465 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fe3a13c2-b897-5dab-8422-ebef6f2c4a08

Services less energy services → Education and communication services
Published effect		+0.156 pp4.9070.098+0.058 3.109.66 of 10-0.001
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.156 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4724ce48-a65b-5505-b447-73089cf36cf2

Sep 2026 · 3.1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
54032d62-f423-54db-9bda-ef6842e0fa5f

Aug 2026 · 0.157 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
20c3f840-2710-519b-81d5-7e2777e35f28

Sep 2025 · 4.907 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a1193c4f-e01f-5aad-b6c6-0fd6b0859e9e

Energy → Energy commodities → Fuel oil and other fuels → Fuel oil
Published effect		+0.058 pp0.0740.001+0.057 74.20142.56 of 10+0.018
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.058 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d3e8a3ae-de67-56da-903f-6771d95bd1df

Sep 2026 · 74.2 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a0674648-4edf-5034-ac2e-21544641937c

Aug 2026 · 0.04 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6f6e7a94-27ee-5fdd-86b8-4e599e5cefbc

Sep 2025 · 0.074 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
973ed6dd-74fd-5bf9-8362-ea2e83522c02

Services less energy services → Transportation services
Unallocated within Transportation services		+0.106 pp2.5840.052+0.054 ————
6 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.171 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
185f98cd-d4be-5823-8e03-e940514ae16f

Sep 2026 · 0.201 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
76d528ad-b5dd-5475-8de8-7a2043f0b50b

Sep 2026 · -0.136 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5edb1c66-59c3-5192-9831-bc7ecbd12356

Sep 2025 · 6.243 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42c87ec0-845a-5283-b278-a33572767c66

Sep 2025 · 0.855 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f722e9db-39ca-5de8-b6aa-d5c25363b9ee

Sep 2025 · 2.804 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bad6e12c-8174-5871-8dae-72d902f60999

Energy → Energy commodities → Motor fuel
Unallocated within Motor fuel		+0.054 pp0.0840.002+0.052 ————
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 1.147 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ec67c597-7033-5ac2-8ed5-cf82be3f7959

Sep 2026 · 1.093 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a736ffa1-d034-592c-bfaa-9efa514876e6

Sep 2025 · 3.033 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0aeff6eb-69f2-570b-8412-3d257213413a

Sep 2025 · 2.949 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
34505ef6-88b3-585e-bc2b-b41e4f43694d

Food → Food away from home → Full service meals and snacks
Published effect		+0.090 pp2.4510.049+0.041 3.803.78 of 10+0.006
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.09 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1b875a2d-d4f1-5677-b02f-34b6349a6791

Sep 2026 · 3.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c45aa5a1-7963-5966-96e0-0c00ee18192d

Aug 2026 · 0.084 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
496b9ca6-c234-5d83-bc6f-d8aaabc46d00

Sep 2025 · 2.451 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c51b36e4-8986-54ef-b19f-4a5c43232765

Services less energy services
Unallocated within Services less energy services		+0.060 pp1.0640.021+0.039 ————
16 input rows

Sep 2026 · 1.904 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fe454a56-7db6-55e4-938d-831f6cf9d7ca

Sep 2026 · 0.156 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4724ce48-a65b-5505-b447-73089cf36cf2

Sep 2026 · 0.174 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e60475d4-3a1a-5dfc-9faf-a0977bd8cb89

Sep 2026 · 0.071 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6c240b73-862e-5f81-9d82-2e0b74f9ba9d

Sep 2026 · 0.076 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0fdcea79-c263-5f18-8445-643ab3dfa303

Sep 2026 · 1.142 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bf3d78e9-ef19-5b1a-afec-69b43068196a

Sep 2026 · 0.171 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
185f98cd-d4be-5823-8e03-e940514ae16f

Sep 2026 · 0.054 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bc51fbd6-e9b3-5b7d-995d-33bc75d51691

Sep 2025 · 60.635 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ac575c2c-d6fd-5016-adc2-2f1a0afa5fe5

Sep 2025 · 4.907 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a1193c4f-e01f-5aad-b6c6-0fd6b0859e9e

Sep 2025 · 6.765 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4a6f587d-46d2-5e63-aae7-d42ad4084f00

Sep 2025 · 1.657 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ed8c2baf-4ee8-5684-8d58-5aad78455b5d

Sep 2025 · 3.439 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
95c89f02-8360-5c89-8c12-52751fe26327

Sep 2025 · 35.471 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3b2df5fa-72fb-59e2-94ee-26e169ed66cf

Sep 2025 · 6.243 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42c87ec0-845a-5283-b278-a33572767c66

Sep 2025 · 1.089 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4bf9a00f-c52e-5c87-bb71-fc342cbc614f

Services less energy services → Other personal services
Published effect		+0.071 pp1.6570.033+0.038 4.500.85 of 10+0.002
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.071 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6c240b73-862e-5f81-9d82-2e0b74f9ba9d

Sep 2026 · 4.5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5c2d5454-d95e-5b67-bbe5-5c88518270cf

Aug 2026 · 0.069 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5fd962f5-9130-534d-973a-69e2c36f39f1

Sep 2025 · 1.657 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ed8c2baf-4ee8-5684-8d58-5aad78455b5d

Services less energy services → Shelter → Lodging away from home
Published effect		+0.064 pp1.3630.027+0.037 4.406.27 of 10+0.015
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.064 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b1792aa0-5be1-52fd-921c-517814381d81

Sep 2026 · 4.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
70ba8fa6-c535-5b31-976a-7a5ccc1a1956

Aug 2026 · 0.049 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
edfc9bab-ed9e-56af-b41a-fdbc1f1c9ba2

Sep 2025 · 1.363 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
778324d1-57b0-5e95-a293-28c57b2f0978

Services less energy services → Medical care services → Dental services
Published effect		+0.054 pp0.9490.019+0.035 6.001.67 of 10+0.009
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.054 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a98869d0-e554-56e3-8f56-b1ed2c56d96e

Sep 2026 · 6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
afc41b18-4b40-5d9a-8b2f-48c65caf9b19

Aug 2026 · 0.045 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e71c7708-7729-5842-83c0-1ed4757d2918

Sep 2025 · 0.949 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
64496c39-85e2-55e2-afff-67c1593132ad

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Recreation commodities
Published effect		+0.070 pp1.8300.037+0.033 3.606.26 of 10+0.011
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.07 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8cc039d8-e74c-52e4-8eca-a42f26198ab7

Sep 2026 · 3.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b283c0ff-c4a0-5150-9d80-fc2f94653dbd

Aug 2026 · 0.059 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9f24326b-1d3e-509e-9c88-8a1eaf485f31

Sep 2025 · 1.83 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8bbdceec-e4e0-58b7-99e1-bbde057fd1ee

Services less energy services → Water and sewer and trash collection services
Published effect		+0.054 pp1.0890.022+0.032 4.804.510 of 10+0.001
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.054 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bc51fbd6-e9b3-5b7d-995d-33bc75d51691

Sep 2026 · 4.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
314e8240-a4b0-5d6f-a861-7d7ae7b2e16c

Aug 2026 · 0.053 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7edefb96-de5d-5969-8d07-521f97514feb

Sep 2025 · 1.089 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4bf9a00f-c52e-5c87-bb71-fc342cbc614f

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Apparel
Published effect		+0.082 pp2.5040.050+0.032 3.401.67 of 10-0.004
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.082 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d529f9e6-3563-56b6-a339-a72f1a7d5df0

Sep 2026 · 3.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6a31ad3e-2b0f-573b-a66a-a00f04d7b83c

Aug 2026 · 0.086 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0b484b77-cb75-534e-9d7b-9cbaf86d41a5

Sep 2025 · 2.504 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
71dc10ce-0fb0-50b6-95c2-e35e36f90d65

Food → Food away from home → Limited service meals and snacks
Published effect		+0.086 pp2.8280.057+0.029 3.202.48 of 10-0.001
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.086 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d84bd79a-4060-506f-a1b4-a0ec94322215

Sep 2026 · 3.2 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
17f8e0cd-0244-5703-b121-72ad2cfdc4f9

Aug 2026 · 0.087 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f1894876-83ca-5d7e-8c0f-ebce75a0c95f

Sep 2025 · 2.828 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
cce24db4-8d7c-50a7-abf0-70a2326a9907

Energy → Energy services → Utility (piped) gas service
Published effect		+0.038 pp0.7700.015+0.023 5.00-2.85 of 10+0.004
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.038 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
616436b9-60c1-5065-97f5-6c957ba32a01

Sep 2026 · 5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
de593fdf-0a41-5f1e-a466-5445fd2951a6

Aug 2026 · 0.034 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1c291f6a-ad06-52f9-bd06-63efab1b5a0a

Sep 2025 · 0.77 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
cc3144ad-7a72-5abd-83ce-df07e89e6369

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Other goods → Tobacco and smoking products
Published effect		+0.029 pp0.4910.010+0.019 6.407.46 of 100.000
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.029 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f6806ce2-2bf4-515e-9465-2e495276da84

Sep 2026 · 6.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
96363df1-3dc8-5123-90e4-a6d14c7633a4

Aug 2026 · 0.029 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
aeb499b0-994f-543d-9441-2d588989fe5d

Sep 2025 · 0.491 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2afb5f98-45af-5bf4-91ae-df9770b2e200

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Fish and seafood
Published effect		+0.020 pp0.2420.005+0.015 6.902.05 of 10+0.001
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.02 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f994a2a4-4cff-5b76-ba05-4c792ad10a97

Sep 2026 · 6.9 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
34e2eb9f-461a-5bb5-b8a3-45317e81a17a

Aug 2026 · 0.019 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a59b0202-dfb0-551b-9c4d-2adf163b98be

Sep 2025 · 0.242 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1e4bba15-99f2-5ae4-9947-12e1ad33fb5f

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits
Unallocated within Fresh fruits		+0.022 pp0.3450.007+0.015 ————
6 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.026 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
aa12c1fa-725b-5a51-a8f0-b487df0d57e1

Sep 2026 · 0.005 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1946f37c-9bd0-55d5-9e01-d060200df1b8

Sep 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9d40ff19-a450-5ae8-b973-8aa28cf0fd70

Sep 2025 · 0.543 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ab3567cd-226b-5727-83e6-865fefbd8614

Sep 2025 · 0.085 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7a2f7de6-9373-5723-bcf4-14ee98557ea4

Sep 2025 · 0.113 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7d4e8eff-5d38-5e33-aeb5-42094de41500

Food → Food at home → Other food at home → Sugar and sweets
Published effect		+0.018 pp0.3370.007+0.011 5.50-0.85 of 10-0.002
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.018 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2b71d0e3-63ee-5b5b-9dc2-d8e4ad39e524

Sep 2026 · 5.5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
98b850cd-8189-5a5f-9453-0215df65ba00

Aug 2026 · 0.02 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
af7cbd8e-4a7b-573a-a2fc-f4b23fc292c7

Sep 2025 · 0.337 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a5f05b7d-f74a-5e6a-a7e3-c3f9fac32eda

Food → Food at home → Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials → Coffee
Published effect		+0.014 pp0.1530.003+0.011 7.100.86 of 10+0.002
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.014 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4cc7ae0b-defc-5b41-b025-3fe16ff3e8ea

Sep 2026 · 7.1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ef4f86ed-c571-587d-860e-e06e114fe616

Aug 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e1aad458-3369-584b-9814-2f928a7c0910

Sep 2025 · 0.153 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bbed950a-889b-57ef-9250-7689168b237b

Food → Food at home → Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials
Unallocated within Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials		+0.024 pp0.7550.015+0.009 ————
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.038 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b038a76f-b204-5baf-a9b1-889cb00e4ba6

Sep 2026 · 0.014 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4cc7ae0b-defc-5b41-b025-3fe16ff3e8ea

Sep 2025 · 0.908 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
493f108a-b696-586e-a47d-f2788c1e97a0

Sep 2025 · 0.153 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bbed950a-889b-57ef-9250-7689168b237b

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Meats → Beef and veal → Uncooked ground beef
Published effect		+0.012 pp0.2200.004+0.008 5.40-9.25 of 10-0.004
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9ee0ed5d-6df9-5aed-b645-9a1facda4a1c

Sep 2026 · 5.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
756c9021-2100-5d5f-8395-b46351c1718d

Aug 2026 · 0.016 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6c8a5caa-2d1a-53ae-ba1b-771981b14817

Sep 2025 · 0.22 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
23517d60-3b91-53ff-8cc6-d9fc0f313a4c

Services less energy services → Recreation services
Published effect		+0.076 pp3.4390.069+0.007 2.301.25 of 10-0.003
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.076 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0fdcea79-c263-5f18-8445-643ab3dfa303

Sep 2026 · 2.3 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fab7ab23-dde2-5f66-ad7e-4dfeff9a7b26

Aug 2026 · 0.079 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a0f84b29-093d-508f-947a-de39f1a6089d

Sep 2025 · 3.439 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
95c89f02-8360-5c89-8c12-52751fe26327

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Processed fruits and vegetables
Published effect		+0.009 pp0.2210.004+0.005 2.702.86 of 100.000
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.009 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
453eea0f-791e-5e7d-aca7-961a0d03b312

Sep 2026 · 2.7 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1b113eaf-8315-5e15-a771-19bf397e1fc7

Aug 2026 · 0.009 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3da09463-f1c1-55c7-8fc6-680ada52ecc1

Sep 2025 · 0.221 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f7eded40-ac0c-51ec-ab87-e94fcd70aba6

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Poultry → Other uncooked poultry including turkey
Published effect		+0.006 pp0.0710.001+0.005 8.40-2.05 of 10-0.002
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.006 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c307a9ca-87ed-5f79-967d-d28a25eb11ff

Sep 2026 · 8.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
343b27e2-3a97-5c22-b605-4ed6b24247d6

Aug 2026 · 0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b6161fc2-6c78-549e-98c5-648013ac37bb

Sep 2025 · 0.071 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e5404f28-791d-5d3e-8cc8-b0ad83b6e5c7

Food → Food at home → Cereals and bakery products → Cereals and cereal products
Published effect		+0.010 pp0.3260.007+0.003 3.203.65 of 100.000
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.01 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3323d2bd-5700-57f2-86c1-5dfbc410128e

Sep 2026 · 3.2 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6ddf7405-7fad-5ffc-88ac-c3fd72c3e177

Aug 2026 · 0.01 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
69284ef1-0b09-5127-a6c9-65abb748ce5b

Sep 2025 · 0.326 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e7d65fbb-3d21-5d01-8064-0ed4bf285794

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits → Apples
Published effect		+0.005 pp0.0850.002+0.003 7.501.38 of 10+0.001
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.005 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1946f37c-9bd0-55d5-9e01-d060200df1b8

Sep 2026 · 7.5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7013802a-ed02-5b76-9dcb-7117629d04df

Aug 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
851d260b-28e6-563e-bc30-598ad572c104

Sep 2025 · 0.085 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7a2f7de6-9373-5723-bcf4-14ee98557ea4

Food → Food away from home → Other food away from home
Published effect		+0.008 pp0.2450.005+0.003 4.005.36 of 10-0.001
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5f42f55e-a4fd-5474-a54d-c646fdcddb48

Sep 2026 · 4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
99339a8c-8fa6-5c4b-b2f0-022d5d96fb7a

Aug 2026 · 0.009 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a251c9fd-7611-5955-afc5-8c16fcb291f2

Sep 2025 · 0.245 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6a28507d-035a-514e-b3df-36126d28c2c7

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Other goods
Unallocated within Other goods		+0.019 pp0.7960.016+0.003 ————
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.048 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d701b0e1-d6ea-55ed-b0c1-47182cd08931

Sep 2026 · 0.029 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f6806ce2-2bf4-515e-9465-2e495276da84

Sep 2025 · 1.287 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1e589c6f-9c35-5dd0-b8dc-c2fb8e0df196

Sep 2025 · 0.491 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2afb5f98-45af-5bf4-91ae-df9770b2e200

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Meats → Beef and veal
Unallocated within Beef and veal		+0.008 pp0.2710.005+0.003 ————
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.02 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
47ef0891-b225-5f97-8c7c-f02ef9c99b87

Sep 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9ee0ed5d-6df9-5aed-b645-9a1facda4a1c

Sep 2025 · 0.491 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e093c361-43a2-5ece-ae9b-388d111cd88e

Sep 2025 · 0.22 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
23517d60-3b91-53ff-8cc6-d9fc0f313a4c

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh vegetables → Tomatoes
Published effect		+0.004 pp0.0890.002+0.002 6.80-21.54 of 100.000
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a3723119-dedc-54af-9b2b-e801a6e816ae

Sep 2026 · 6.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
393a2fae-66f2-5b01-8e6e-019b3d4848fd

Aug 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
35f306a2-c957-57f4-971a-a04672b5eb40

Sep 2025 · 0.089 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6defb7d7-2849-50bf-acd1-54e8b8745b92

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh vegetables
Unallocated within Fresh vegetables		+0.009 pp0.3710.007+0.002 ————
6 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
03e4433b-3098-5405-8a78-27362002c5c3

Sep 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d0143397-d7b9-5417-aee2-f782e7ab8e40

Sep 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a3723119-dedc-54af-9b2b-e801a6e816ae

Sep 2025 · 0.547 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8b47b9d0-401f-5c58-a2b9-8cf57211f9be

Sep 2025 · 0.087 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2316b27b-240d-55fd-b9dd-7fe679bf9159

Sep 2025 · 0.089 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6defb7d7-2849-50bf-acd1-54e8b8745b92

Services less energy services → Shelter
Unallocated within Shelter		+0.010 pp0.4210.008+0.002 ————
8 input rows

Sep 2026 · 1.142 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bf3d78e9-ef19-5b1a-afec-69b43068196a

Sep 2026 · 0.064 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b1792aa0-5be1-52fd-921c-517814381d81

Sep 2026 · 0.853 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
79b38d1a-1eda-5ed5-bd7c-23afe1dbc457

Sep 2026 · 0.215 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d0cef4e5-41b3-507e-826d-1e1cb80107f2

Sep 2025 · 35.471 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3b2df5fa-72fb-59e2-94ee-26e169ed66cf

Sep 2025 · 1.363 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
778324d1-57b0-5e95-a293-28c57b2f0978

Sep 2025 · 26.231 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a1cbee82-3cd6-5c56-adbc-5eac7cd3a0b0

Sep 2025 · 7.456 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b17e02ce-06e7-5bc1-8099-3dfa7989df15

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables
Unallocated within Fresh fruits and vegetables		+0.001 pp0.0000.000+0.001 ————
6 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.039 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4893f117-9014-57d7-a06a-6977fff33669

Sep 2026 · 0.026 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
aa12c1fa-725b-5a51-a8f0-b487df0d57e1

Sep 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
03e4433b-3098-5405-8a78-27362002c5c3

Sep 2025 · 1.09 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8a06bf07-f59f-5d0b-a00b-8c4f49b737ed

Sep 2025 · 0.543 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ab3567cd-226b-5727-83e6-865fefbd8614

Sep 2025 · 0.547 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8b47b9d0-401f-5c58-a2b9-8cf57211f9be

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Poultry
Unallocated within Poultry		+0.001 pp0.0000.000+0.001 ————
6 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.005 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8a76bb16-9d0d-58ce-9658-e4f871a99ccf

Sep 2026 · -0.002 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4a29b4aa-071a-5900-98ab-2b66704a4585

Sep 2026 · 0.006 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c307a9ca-87ed-5f79-967d-d28a25eb11ff

Sep 2025 · 0.287 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
172d60aa-f507-5167-bf0d-d872e488d03c

Sep 2025 · 0.216 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
202526eb-b8bd-5ca2-aa6a-9f8fd847e3b2

Sep 2025 · 0.071 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e5404f28-791d-5d3e-8cc8-b0ad83b6e5c7

Energy → Energy services
Unallocated within Energy services		+0.001 pp0.0000.000+0.001 ————
6 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.148 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
18fee273-5c2e-54c0-9baa-2395f982401c

Sep 2026 · 0.109 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fb2634fe-6ad0-55f4-9bf4-98aa8fb8ac77

Sep 2026 · 0.038 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
616436b9-60c1-5065-97f5-6c957ba32a01

Sep 2025 · 3.235 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
46e88a3e-87da-58d4-9788-19eeb677c826

Sep 2025 · 2.465 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fe3a13c2-b897-5dab-8422-ebef6f2c4a08

Sep 2025 · 0.77 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
cc3144ad-7a72-5abd-83ce-df07e89e6369

Food → Food away from home
Unallocated within Food away from home		+0.003 pp0.1290.0030.000 ————
8 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.187 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a29937be-c578-5668-aa72-4461db7a1557

Sep 2026 · 0.09 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1b875a2d-d4f1-5677-b02f-34b6349a6791

Sep 2026 · 0.086 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d84bd79a-4060-506f-a1b4-a0ec94322215

Sep 2026 · 0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5f42f55e-a4fd-5474-a54d-c646fdcddb48

Sep 2025 · 5.653 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
80f5a2e1-2966-56ed-bff2-2e7aab63c9f1

Sep 2025 · 2.451 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c51b36e4-8986-54ef-b19f-4a5c43232765

Sep 2025 · 2.828 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
cce24db4-8d7c-50a7-abf0-70a2326a9907

Sep 2025 · 0.245 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6a28507d-035a-514e-b3df-36126d28c2c7

Food → Food at home → Dairy and related products → Milk
Published effect		+0.004 pp0.1950.0040.000 2.30-10.36 of 10-0.004
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ba4b97be-2fe5-5ab0-8d28-1a4934466ac9

Sep 2026 · 2.3 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7cf019be-81e8-574a-8997-4b2d0c99a366

Aug 2026 · 0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c70d538c-ca9d-5baa-be92-6fd267db1c18

Sep 2025 · 0.195 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c35d2a3a-d486-5958-8f38-66d8335633d8

Services less energy services → Medical care services → Physicians' services
Published effect		+0.036 pp1.8050.0360.000 2.100.86 of 10+0.002
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.036 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4d065040-7316-526c-986f-07cf003096ff

Sep 2026 · 2.1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
319a75f3-0a5d-518b-8431-881a9298a31e

Aug 2026 · 0.034 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8a9ec835-0dcd-5567-8335-2e925186fe7b

Sep 2025 · 1.805 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7d87ecff-7dcf-5a8c-a630-52941342027a

Energy → Energy commodities → Fuel oil and other fuels
Unallocated within Fuel oil and other fuels		+0.001 pp0.0590.0010.000 ————
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.059 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
90856d92-2ef7-56b1-bbff-6ea4ba03c88a

Sep 2026 · 0.058 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d3e8a3ae-de67-56da-903f-6771d95bd1df

Sep 2025 · 0.133 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6140023e-c571-5f1a-a451-d4a177c32fe3

Sep 2025 · 0.074 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
973ed6dd-74fd-5bf9-8362-ea2e83522c02

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Meats
Unallocated within Meats		-0.001 pp-0.0010.000-0.001 ————
8 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.015 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d3866e8f-3889-5785-9201-29e2a293bbd1

Sep 2026 · 0.02 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
47ef0891-b225-5f97-8c7c-f02ef9c99b87

Sep 2026 · -0.003 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9b1350e0-4ed9-5269-a932-303cbc718927

Sep 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b934e3c8-5283-59ec-a809-6abe06e8f181

Sep 2025 · 0.961 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4df46667-5d8d-51ff-b564-9d4148cf8ce9

Sep 2025 · 0.491 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e093c361-43a2-5ece-ae9b-388d111cd88e

Sep 2025 · 0.183 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
eb4bed2e-57a1-5b50-9e40-3e6f11a53518

Sep 2025 · 0.288 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0700da67-e926-5a74-b8ba-30ff8d72886d

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Meats → Pork → Pork chops
Published effect		0.000 pp0.0490.001-0.001 -0.10-12.96 of 10-0.001
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
68a3ca9e-beec-5ffa-a7ba-8d1da2931c52

Sep 2026 · -0.1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
6d9cd1cc-5586-595d-9696-a67f5723708c

Aug 2026 · 0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f15325db-7126-5820-a99f-4a0e2ad65931

Sep 2025 · 0.049 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2120a7ac-5a4b-5617-98da-add63ccfc15a

Energy
Unallocated within Energy		-0.001 pp-0.0010.000-0.001 ————
6 input rows

Sep 2026 · 1.353 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
eaf7bb9a-d5d0-526e-8e9a-de38b2604e03

Sep 2026 · 1.206 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
de5516b9-f65a-53de-ba89-b4435fdc05a9

Sep 2026 · 0.148 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
18fee273-5c2e-54c0-9baa-2395f982401c

Sep 2025 · 6.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d18ef137-f8de-52fb-ad98-06e341508b4b

Sep 2025 · 3.166 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b394deab-c8ab-504d-b521-b4213de8a0ea

Sep 2025 · 3.235 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
46e88a3e-87da-58d4-9788-19eeb677c826

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables
Unallocated within Fruits and vegetables		-0.001 pp0.0000.000-0.001 ————
6 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.047 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
baa9f6e6-2c7c-5426-9db9-3ceb4ba256e4

Sep 2026 · 0.039 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4893f117-9014-57d7-a06a-6977fff33669

Sep 2026 · 0.009 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
453eea0f-791e-5e7d-aca7-961a0d03b312

Sep 2025 · 1.311 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fdd142fa-6ec2-5a68-a204-25858b879126

Sep 2025 · 1.09 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8a06bf07-f59f-5d0b-a00b-8c4f49b737ed

Sep 2025 · 0.221 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f7eded40-ac0c-51ec-ab87-e94fcd70aba6

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh vegetables → Potatoes
Published effect		-0.001 pp0.0870.002-0.003 1.108.38 of 10-0.002
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d0143397-d7b9-5417-aee2-f782e7ab8e40

Sep 2026 · 1.1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bdd7c164-c5c0-51c7-8141-9f013c5b2115

Aug 2026 · 0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0e2eaf89-37b1-5f86-986f-b9a4cf02d770

Sep 2025 · 0.087 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2316b27b-240d-55fd-b9dd-7fe679bf9159

Food → Food at home → Fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits and vegetables → Fresh fruits → Bananas
Published effect		-0.001 pp0.1130.002-0.003 -0.804.54 of 100.000
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9d40ff19-a450-5ae8-b973-8aa28cf0fd70

Sep 2026 · -0.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
006ca9fb-aab5-5f82-bfb7-a91ee8990715

Aug 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d0679f92-f395-5926-8224-711d3d367540

Sep 2025 · 0.113 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7d4e8eff-5d38-5e33-aeb5-42094de41500

Food → Food at home → Cereals and bakery products → Bakery products
Published effect		+0.012 pp0.7650.015-0.003 1.700.84 of 10-0.006
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
55e86d9b-cc5d-5e53-88c4-eecc39d70017

Sep 2026 · 1.7 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
554dd801-cd14-5378-989b-0207b952ada7

Aug 2026 · 0.018 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
22162636-b39b-5348-8ad0-e5ddf62712c4

Sep 2025 · 0.765 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ec3d284f-0705-5ac3-ab44-88edbea2e0cf

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Alcoholic beverages
Published effect		+0.012 pp0.8280.017-0.005 1.401.24 of 10-0.002
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.012 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
95749c5d-de39-5bf8-9947-d470853af1d2

Sep 2026 · 1.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
43a81f3a-fc6c-5b6d-a9e6-306f86fb6fad

Aug 2026 · 0.014 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9d8a756e-4009-53a3-90a0-14d910957e98

Sep 2025 · 0.828 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
92397d36-ee4c-5ed7-8edd-0095c3fa78d4

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Meats → Pork
Unallocated within Pork		-0.001 pp0.2390.005-0.006 ————
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
b934e3c8-5283-59ec-a809-6abe06e8f181

Sep 2026 · 0 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
68a3ca9e-beec-5ffa-a7ba-8d1da2931c52

Sep 2025 · 0.288 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
0700da67-e926-5a74-b8ba-30ff8d72886d

Sep 2025 · 0.049 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2120a7ac-5a4b-5617-98da-add63ccfc15a

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Poultry → Chicken
Published effect		-0.002 pp0.2160.004-0.006 -0.604.04 of 10+0.004
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.002 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4a29b4aa-071a-5900-98ab-2b66704a4585

Sep 2026 · -0.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
78eae007-4658-570e-9300-76ee57e6c047

Aug 2026 · -0.006 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8fc9e8fe-6ce1-5002-ad0f-3a79e5315b76

Sep 2025 · 0.216 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
202526eb-b8bd-5ca2-aa6a-9f8fd847e3b2

Food → Food at home → Dairy and related products
Unallocated within Dairy and related products		-0.001 pp0.2800.006-0.007 ————
6 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.005 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
dd734473-aece-583b-b43d-d69d49115c8e

Sep 2026 · -0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8a0a4170-8168-5ab9-b165-6bb9c7604d23

Sep 2026 · 0.004 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ba4b97be-2fe5-5ab0-8d28-1a4934466ac9

Sep 2025 · 0.726 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9f811330-ae4d-534f-9630-5a7c0067b94c

Sep 2025 · 0.251 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c9b0bcb7-2a01-5ac0-adf5-0d879db4e32b

Sep 2025 · 0.195 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c35d2a3a-d486-5958-8f38-66d8335633d8

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Meats, poultry, and fish → Meats → Other meats
Published effect		-0.003 pp0.1830.004-0.007 -1.60-0.14 of 10-0.005
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.003 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9b1350e0-4ed9-5269-a932-303cbc718927

Sep 2026 · -1.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
66ae88d9-edaf-5075-8a87-a2316933bfdc

Aug 2026 · 0.002 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
34b5de59-1433-51c9-b557-5b63f0e426c7

Sep 2025 · 0.183 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
eb4bed2e-57a1-5b50-9e40-3e6f11a53518

Food → Food at home → Other food at home → Fats and oils
Published effect		-0.002 pp0.2430.005-0.007 -0.804.04 of 10-0.002
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.002 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
47decd04-5e96-5900-bd17-9202c1f12a68

Sep 2026 · -0.8 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d7d8b9c5-6527-5f61-993e-64080acd8909

Aug 2026 · 0 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ac9da56d-6fbe-5565-8f4e-1d31bf49757f

Sep 2025 · 0.243 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1bd8834c-99ee-5afd-9fee-bbafb1fd2803

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Household furnishings and supplies → Appliances
Published effect		-0.003 pp0.2210.004-0.007 -1.005.75 of 10-0.002
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.003 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fd410eb4-d51b-5698-a02a-2fcb263816d2

Sep 2026 · -1 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a07b14dc-5854-507b-9727-a6ee45bc41bf

Aug 2026 · -0.001 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
763434bb-ce9c-5d48-bcdc-50814ec17510

Sep 2025 · 0.221 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
11523c5d-f549-5dc6-81ed-92931f9f947b

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Transportation commodities less motor fuel
Unallocated within Transportation commodities less motor fuel		+0.002 pp0.5000.010-0.008 ————
6 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.009 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f013ff53-e18d-5edf-8874-e1adb845d932

Sep 2026 · 0.022 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f9229218-d4fa-5718-bd44-ed91ded9288e

Sep 2026 · -0.033 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
27fa9f0a-f299-599c-b20d-0fd065c5a484

Sep 2025 · 7.247 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9c7e5b0f-6bb5-5cc2-8a3f-5eca505a057c

Sep 2025 · 4.307 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c109eeda-79f7-546b-8def-6a8918bddddb

Sep 2025 · 2.44 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ad586f76-46f1-5cca-8238-b0fd806e03db

Food → Food at home → Other food at home → Other foods
Published effect		+0.024 pp1.7330.035-0.011 1.40-1.23 of 10-0.012
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.024 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c2a94d6f-567b-593c-b8be-7a58c8837f02

Sep 2026 · 1.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
dcca4269-6e87-54f6-9196-ddaeef365737

Aug 2026 · 0.036 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
334abc6a-a37f-5702-9576-316c02c27b39

Sep 2025 · 1.733 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bc79d8d9-5f14-5119-ad11-9aa30ca6e739

Food → Food at home → Dairy and related products → Cheese and related products
Published effect		-0.008 pp0.2510.005-0.013 -3.00-0.46 of 10+0.002
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.008 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8a0a4170-8168-5ab9-b165-6bb9c7604d23

Sep 2026 · -3 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
437d5997-0370-5268-abe9-00a8d46c5fae

Aug 2026 · -0.01 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8b607523-8b3c-5cca-bb03-c3294360f139

Sep 2025 · 0.251 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c9b0bcb7-2a01-5ac0-adf5-0d879db4e32b

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Household furnishings and supplies
Unallocated within Household furnishings and supplies		+0.031 pp2.3760.048-0.017 ————
6 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.007 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d066ad89-2769-5d39-9ba2-9e8405d79533

Sep 2026 · -0.003 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fd410eb4-d51b-5698-a02a-2fcb263816d2

Sep 2026 · -0.021 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fd46a455-f9a1-5914-b62b-b61df8724b26

Sep 2025 · 3.388 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5a3be2b1-2025-5253-aafa-d82b2dcb541a

Sep 2025 · 0.221 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
11523c5d-f549-5dc6-81ed-92931f9f947b

Sep 2025 · 0.791 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
758b3831-f7e1-5c7c-ab7d-9364cedbace4

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Education and communication commodities
Published effect		-0.019 pp0.7320.015-0.034 -2.609.65 of 10+0.011
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.019 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
35f3e1c5-de98-52df-9a83-9970b06e9ab1

Sep 2026 · -2.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
45b56268-a903-5448-8bee-21df801278d7

Aug 2026 · -0.03 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
addde032-620d-5148-8445-0f42d450a52f

Sep 2025 · 0.732 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
cf43a192-c487-5a95-b614-1f381fffef69

Food → Food at home → Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs → Eggs
Published effect		-0.031 pp0.1540.003-0.034 -20.604.34 of 10+0.005
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.031 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5ea95a20-8e14-50e1-82bd-adceaf6feea6

Sep 2026 · -20.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
03c5e50e-4b65-56a9-a72f-8d164cc474dd

Aug 2026 · -0.036 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
af0f5f3a-be70-5c78-84dd-31be9c6b49da

Sep 2025 · 0.154 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2c64dda1-31ed-59c5-9bd4-ce3a905cf5dd

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Household furnishings and supplies → Furniture and bedding
Published effect		-0.021 pp0.7910.016-0.037 -2.40-6.62 of 10-0.014
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.021 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
fd46a455-f9a1-5914-b62b-b61df8724b26

Sep 2026 · -2.4 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5f4053c8-d80c-5145-910c-135a502a0d3f

Aug 2026 · -0.007 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
2342928c-9170-5549-bf68-24c977051bcc

Sep 2025 · 0.791 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
758b3831-f7e1-5c7c-ab7d-9364cedbace4

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Transportation commodities less motor fuel → New vehicles
Published effect		+0.022 pp4.3070.086-0.064 0.602.43 of 11+0.002
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.022 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f9229218-d4fa-5718-bd44-ed91ded9288e

Sep 2026 · 0.6 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
18cd3022-8f9b-5fe0-808b-8584ead37d95

Aug 2026 · 0.02 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
9182b697-31b0-56ee-8b38-4e98a458ca58

Sep 2025 · 4.307 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c109eeda-79f7-546b-8def-6a8918bddddb

Services less energy services → Medical care services
Unallocated within Medical care services		-0.033 pp2.0460.041-0.074 ————
8 input rows

Sep 2026 · 0.174 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
e60475d4-3a1a-5dfc-9faf-a0977bd8cb89

Sep 2026 · 0.054 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a98869d0-e554-56e3-8f56-b1ed2c56d96e

Sep 2026 · 0.117 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4322085e-6075-5ec9-8106-120fc77487da

Sep 2026 · 0.036 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4d065040-7316-526c-986f-07cf003096ff

Sep 2025 · 6.765 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4a6f587d-46d2-5e63-aae7-d42ad4084f00

Sep 2025 · 0.949 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
64496c39-85e2-55e2-afff-67c1593132ad

Sep 2025 · 1.965 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
683032e5-02a2-5649-8bf3-e15aa85b236c

Sep 2025 · 1.805 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
7d87ecff-7dcf-5a8c-a630-52941342027a

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Medical care commodities
Published effect		-0.048 pp1.5030.030-0.078 -3.30-5.81 of 10-0.008
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.048 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8e3d01bd-4072-55b9-b9a7-efa2fc08c56e

Sep 2026 · -3.3 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d425e112-0259-593c-a7b8-549c73ba7c95

Aug 2026 · -0.04 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
f314a03e-09a1-5ee4-9115-6761f8b19903

Sep 2025 · 1.503 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
d2812a1a-e1ab-5dfd-bff6-67e8da51306f

Commodities less food and energy commodities → Transportation commodities less motor fuel → Used cars and trucks
Published effect		-0.033 pp2.4400.049-0.082 -1.506.24 of 11+0.021
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.033 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
27fa9f0a-f299-599c-b20d-0fd065c5a484

Sep 2026 · -1.5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1ecdadf6-9b09-53fd-84ab-290ff772d30a

Aug 2026 · -0.054 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4dc1ef9f-469e-5baf-8081-cfe3f4375e0b

Sep 2025 · 2.44 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
ad586f76-46f1-5cca-8238-b0fd806e03db

Services less energy services → Transportation services → Motor vehicle insurance
Published effect		-0.136 pp2.8040.056-0.192 -5.00-3.90 of 9+0.006
4 input rows

Sep 2026 · -0.136 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5edb1c66-59c3-5192-9831-bc7ecbd12356

Sep 2026 · -5 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
a2c644a5-34ac-527a-b782-7ae7265bd394

Aug 2026 · -0.142 PERCENTAGE_POINTS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
c279f1c5-9563-5aab-8c1e-2039990fb3e4

Sep 2025 · 2.804 PERCENT
Bureau of Labor Statistics
bad6e12c-8174-5871-8dae-72d902f60999

From a contribution to a testable cause

Use each high-excess item to choose the next investigation. These are hypotheses, not findings from the current CPI rows. An item that is already easing needs a different response from one that keeps running above the pace.

  • Housing: test new-lease rents, vacancies, housing completions and lease-reset lags against rent and owners' equivalent rent. Shelter moves slowly, so its excess fades over many months.
  • Energy: separate crude supply, refining margins, utility tariffs and demand using quantities as well as prices. Monetary policy reaches these prices mainly through demand and the dollar.
  • Food: examine harvests, livestock supply, input costs and distribution for the specific product.
  • Goods: test import costs, tariffs, inventories and quantities sold.
  • Other services: compare wages with productivity, capacity and administered prices; investigate insurance and airline fares separately.

A policy claim needs identified effects, plausible implementation lags and employment/output trade-offs. Investors also need market expectations and valuation exposure. CPI contributions alone provide neither.

Conditional outlook · next 12 months

Conditions for 12-month CPI to return to 2.0%

The baseline carries the recent pace of headline CPI forward. Then change the pace of the items ranked above and see how far 12-month inflation would move if only those prices changed. Paces are annualized: 2% means prices rising at a rate equal to 2% a year once fully phased in; 0 means flat prices; a negative pace means falling prices.

Baseline · Sep 20273.7%80% of past errors put the outcome between 1.9% and 6.4%
Scenario · Sep 20272.0%5 items move from Oct 2026 and reach your paces by Dec 2026
Scenario minus baseline-1.8 ppTypical 12-month baseline error: 1.5 pp
Rest of the basket, implied pace1.7%59.3% of spending. To reach 2.0% by Sep 2027 with your item paces, it would need 1.8% a year or less.

12-month CPI inflation: published, baseline and scenario

% · published through Sep 2026, then projected to Sep 2027

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2.0% reference ReleaseScenario 2.0%Baseline 3.7%Oct 24Apr 25Oct 25Apr 26Oct 26Apr 27Sep 27October 2026: baseline —% (80% band —% to —%), scenario —%, all months at 2.0% —%November 2026: baseline 4.1% (80% band 3.6% to 4.6%), scenario 3.9%, all months at 2.0% 3.8%December 2026: baseline 4.1% (80% band 3.3% to 4.8%), scenario 3.8%, all months at 2.0% 3.7%January 2027: baseline 4.2% (80% band 3.4% to 5.1%), scenario 3.8%, all months at 2.0% 3.7%February 2027: baseline 4.3% (80% band 3.2% to 5.4%), scenario 3.7%, all months at 2.0% 3.5%March 2027: baseline 3.7% (80% band 2.4% to 5.0%), scenario 2.9%, all months at 2.0% 2.8%April 2027: baseline 3.4% (80% band 2.0% to 5.0%), scenario 2.4%, all months at 2.0% 2.3%May 2027: baseline 3.2% (80% band 1.7% to 5.1%), scenario 2.1%, all months at 2.0% 2.0%June 2027: baseline 3.9% (80% band 2.3% to 6.1%), scenario 2.7%, all months at 2.0% 2.6%July 2027: baseline 4.2% (80% band 2.6% to 6.6%), scenario 2.7%, all months at 2.0% 2.7%August 2027: baseline 4.1% (80% band 2.4% to 6.7%), scenario 2.5%, all months at 2.0% 2.5%September 2027: baseline 3.7% (80% band 1.9% to 6.4%), scenario 2.0%, all months at 2.0% 2.0%

No 12-month rate is drawn for Oct 2026: those windows include a month BLS never published (October 2025), and gaps are not filled. Cumulative growth from the release is still in the table.

If the last 12 months' pace of prices continues, 12-month CPI inflation would be 3.7% in September 2027. In 186 past forecasts at this horizon, the same rule's error was between -1.9 and +2.7 points 80% of the time, and 1.5 points on average. With gasoline (all types), owners' equivalent rent of residences, airline fares, hospital services and rent of primary residence at the paces set above, the same arithmetic gives 2.0%, 1.8 points lower. That change is larger than the baseline's typical 12-month error, but it assumes the rest of the basket is unaffected. The rest of the basket is implied to be running at 1.7% a year, within the 1.8% it could run at for 12-month CPI to reach 2.0%.

Historical accuracy of each baseline rule

Mean absolute error of 12-month CPI inflation, percentage points. Every rule is scored on the same past releases, using only outcomes published by September 2026.

Rule3 months ahead6 months ahead12 months ahead80% of 12-month errors12-month forecasts scored
Carry forward the last 12 months' pace (selected)0.460.791.49 -1.9 to +2.7186 (about 15 separate years)
Carry forward the last 3 months' pace0.490.871.77 -2.3 to +3.1186 (about 15 separate years)
Assume 2.0% a year from the release0.460.751.33 -1.0 to +3.4186 (about 15 separate years)

A lower error is better. The 3-month rule reacts to the latest prints and so inherits their noise: one sharp month of gasoline prices moves it a long way, and extreme months tend to be followed by less extreme ones. Carrying the 12-month pace forward is the standard random-walk benchmark for inflation forecasts. The reference row is not a forecast: it can score well on average when inflation spends long stretches near that pace, while its 80% range shows how far it misses when inflation surges. Errors 12 months ahead overlap, so the evidence is closer to the number of separate years than to the number of forecasts.

Inspect all 12 projected months
MonthBaseline cumulative %Scenario cumulative %12-month baseline %80% band12-month scenario %Every month at 2.0%Published %
Oct 20260.310.26—————
Nov 20260.610.474.093.57 to 4.603.943.80—
Dec 20260.920.634.103.32 to 4.833.793.66—
Jan 20271.230.784.243.37 to 5.153.783.66—
Feb 20271.540.944.283.19 to 5.373.663.55—
Mar 20271.851.093.702.41 to 5.052.932.83—
Apr 20272.161.243.361.99 to 5.052.422.35—
May 20272.481.393.191.67 to 5.132.092.03—
Jun 20272.791.533.942.32 to 6.142.672.63—
Jul 20273.111.684.182.56 to 6.562.742.73—
Aug 20273.421.824.092.38 to 6.692.482.49—
Sep 20273.741.963.741.87 to 6.411.962.00—

No probability is assigned to the scenario. The band shows how far the same baseline rule missed in the past; it is not a promise about the future and does not cover the scenario's assumptions. Substitution, changing weights, second-round effects (energy feeding into fares and goods) and policy feedback can change the result. The Fed's 2% objective is for PCE inflation, not CPI.

Methods, statistical practice and reproducible inputs

Pressure points. Excess = published BLS effect − base-period relative importance × reference pace ÷ 100, where the base period is 12 months (or one month) before the release, matching how an effect is weighted. Over the disjoint frontier the excesses plus a small residual equal all-items effects minus the reference pace exactly.

Baseline. Carrying forward the 12-month pace sets every future month to (1 + 12-month CPI change)^(1/12); the 3-month rule uses the geometric mean of the last three SA monthly changes. A month's projected 12-month rate compounds the SA monthly changes already published in its window with the projected months, so base effects are included.

Scenario. Selected items use the release's relative importance as fixed proxy weights. After the delay, each item's monthly log price change moves linearly to the chosen pace over the phase-in. Scenario index = baseline index + Σ weight × (scenario item level − baseline item level). Prices of the rest of the basket follow the baseline.

Uncertainty. Each rule is replayed at every past release where all rules can be computed, using only outcomes published by the selected release. The band is the 10th to 90th percentile of signed errors at each horizon (linear interpolation between order statistics), shown only with at least 24 errors. The backtest uses the current snapshot's values, not the data available at each past release.

Statistical practice. Reading framework: Wheelan's Naked Statistics, Spiegelhalter's The Art of Statistics, and Gonick and Smith's The Cartoon Guide to Statistics. Our application is to state the question and the denominator (a share of the gap, not of positive effects), compare with the right counterfactual (a 2% pace, not zero), use robust measures when outliers dominate, prefer a simple benchmark unless a rule beats it out of sample, beware regression to the mean in short windows, and show uncertainty next to every projection. The formulas are our explicit models, not methods attributed to these books.

Use BLS effects for historical attribution and relative importance for weights. Own price rates are never labelled as contributions. Next research additions: PCE contributions, exact component indexes and weight vintages, real-time data vintages for the backtest, and identified policy models with employment trade-offs.

Refresh 4523f1d2-40c6-52a4-b857-e523536583f3 · us-inflation-eb32963698e74efd · published 2026-10-14 17:11:40Z · database ingestion 2026-10-14 17:11:40Z · USA/USD · monthly data.

Matched monthly observations

Co-movement and timing analysis

Choose a potential driver and CPI outcome. Oil and the Fed rate use monthly changes; openings and layoffs use 12-month percentage changes. Payroll change and wage growth are already rates or changes. A positive lag compares the driver month with a later CPI month. Coefficients need at least 36 matched months.

Matched months198Both values required; gaps are never filled.
Pearson r0.503−1 to +1; descriptive association
OLS slope0.012Outcome percentage points per one driver unit
95% interval for r0.38 to 0.61Worth about 157 independent months of 198, after allowing for persistence

Descriptive association only. Common shocks, trend and policy responses can affect both series. The interval excludes zero, which describes co-movement in this sample, not a cause. The month after a Fed move can reflect the Fed reacting to prior inflation. Year-on-year windows overlap, so neighbouring months are near-copies; the interval counts them as fewer independent observations. Trying many drivers and lags will eventually turn up a strong-looking correlation by chance.

Inspect 198 matched months and serving row IDs
Driver monthDriver valueCPI monthCPI valueObservation IDs
Feb 2010-2.47Feb 2010-0.1047bf0afb-5840-5aaf-9509-f260e778dbb0 · dfe0d399-3887-5efd-a52e-61a6bcfaed5e
Mar 20106.30Mar 20100.0352bb778f-8c7a-511d-b262-4ffd81a3be6a · b2af50bb-7a0d-5cfe-b991-b53aa61a5d53
Apr 20103.80Apr 20100.0282a6e392-2f2f-5b3c-a5f4-e4ac1094cb72 · 73af06cd-f3d7-580c-9dd3-a2859d9e21ad
May 2010-12.52May 2010-0.05716d8560-6337-564b-917a-7d52d51c5037 · 83a74a7d-b9b8-552b-b5ca-d09689ab6613
Jun 20102.16Jun 2010-0.049e5c1aaf-0957-5912-8fc4-98a22e9846b4 · 5458f53f-99bb-5160-b9b1-d8595ac18876
Jul 20101.31Jul 20100.196dde3410-9eaa-5546-9177-082c4e8783dc · e5d02492-1b52-5d28-9ed9-71eaa6693a59
Aug 20100.37Aug 20100.15eb3bc40f-24d0-5b98-8972-2b7e513b1263 · 7bf65a63-fb92-56e8-8965-7f33dbf93a0f
Sep 2010-1.77Sep 20100.16c0b2d62a-7a20-5943-9e33-750bc2050172 · d3199111-93d2-5361-86d0-fcf6bc9459bb
Oct 20108.84Oct 20100.35f1f80e16-6745-54d8-8ed2-a7486606443c · 4b5205c8-c09e-5595-a639-656e275d260b
Nov 20102.88Nov 20100.25a9bac596-b1f4-56f4-b876-325b8830e83b · 31843985-89c9-5ec8-9f8b-d8d7bc3b8d23
Dec 20105.81Dec 20100.40c748a0ab-bab0-5a9c-b16a-0bf98060e84c · 01e01b46-3190-5cd2-a5b4-7d681100116b
Jan 20110.03Jan 20110.3297ac93ab-d9d7-5ae5-96f5-c32edee0ef50 · 10772e04-ea7a-5af1-96b8-54088ec54841
Feb 2011-0.66Feb 20110.32cc0add36-39b3-587a-855a-dd158416aa57 · da48359e-9e0e-5383-bbdf-47a9ab752c60
Mar 201116.08Mar 20110.52227b2340-50ab-5799-8e70-10bd525fc5e3 · f560b5db-a249-5405-b24c-4ee55938fdc7
Apr 20116.36Apr 20110.47fad38d60-5c52-5f30-ae1c-154cea9833d6 · 0023762a-4961-57bd-9486-aafd9e7ff718
May 2011-6.21May 20110.32eac28195-857c-5074-ab09-1c4697838e7f · 712a5bcc-24bc-597d-8f02-83511390c32f
Jun 2011-5.71Jun 20110.00907c89b9-b460-53fe-a49b-8135b433523a · a4130369-6e64-5e80-a294-b77dae03d6ee
Jul 20110.61Jul 20110.26f53690a7-029e-510e-8e6a-3b46eb3187cb · e75a0e8b-f6cd-5244-bf8f-192d7a045e9b
Aug 2011-11.28Aug 20110.32436e5c2a-8b00-54d0-bf32-b6b2128f4a25 · 4ba4cb25-5fcb-5a6c-8fa9-0e8b7d831697
Sep 2011-0.95Sep 20110.22df2d4a62-5053-563d-8134-d54cda3ad28b · 85a1476c-cb12-5a41-8dfa-9317f2213e65
Oct 20110.94Oct 20110.0731a17732-cd45-5296-b88f-ac5d590aa10b · d9d0bec0-ce7f-5347-8266-3bd8aad85d97
Nov 201112.56Nov 20110.180547eadd-0bcb-5132-aa28-254cf0f97ccf · 3d9b5fae-a8a5-528f-8f5a-d4c8d7a2b1df
Dec 20111.44Dec 20110.029a775583-2f49-596b-8d22-c0336c4c1450 · f4e1fb67-4d6d-558d-ac58-f4e6fe33aeeb
Jan 20121.74Jan 20120.27739e6757-9a61-5fa4-9472-25f40867793d · 1e4a185d-e97f-5c2f-a043-19dc4c3fbeb6
Feb 20121.93Feb 20120.21aa040d0c-16db-50e1-9555-39d71208c3a8 · 67477876-100f-55e7-88a9-4dd60961aa52
Mar 20123.87Mar 20120.212c798bcb-f0cb-52c4-b1d2-4527a29a8a10 · b253fefe-8c89-5516-be0f-da1686b40bc3
Apr 2012-2.67Apr 20120.17f5bc30a3-2780-5100-9fcb-9701e820a410 · 84a371bf-4cb1-5bbf-bfcd-1fe8474bd710
May 2012-8.39May 2012-0.21fe7ec07f-f153-515b-978a-f35464754054 · 70dcfbf7-32d0-547d-bca7-eb0b1ea16594
Jun 2012-13.05Jun 2012-0.080138d302-d5c9-5a91-bbe4-7950ee6fad2e · 91233b34-1779-5729-af0d-b19723b8db75
Jul 20126.79Jul 20120.034fc82907-c5ce-5776-aa40-6e7a4a27a72c · 22234f96-85fe-5c47-a850-37b2e1ba9ab5
Aug 20127.09Aug 20120.58d38ea130-34fe-5ac1-a821-84df8dfb5a4c · b3f24746-4645-5870-a215-7d08ebe116fd
Sep 20120.41Sep 20120.4807ce5076-3575-5b81-9c51-6c45e9f653a6 · 46066d20-2fc0-5692-8e12-e4ae9d1ea2d6
Oct 2012-5.31Oct 20120.2727c7dd5a-8361-57c9-9de2-7d40fb5b8c2c · a7f4c8c6-17e1-5d71-a1bb-2c2b1d24e9a4
Nov 2012-3.31Nov 2012-0.17f3e9b095-d34a-55d5-9de5-ad3c84ef4dba · 1123bdc5-15ff-55c7-9f0a-4ed8a036420f
Dec 20121.53Dec 2012-0.0174ecc35d-2956-598d-95b3-e4d8d52802da · edabec44-571c-5a6b-8446-5b5fffa19336
Jan 20137.85Jan 20130.20cbb84639-a033-555e-ac24-7428a77f1d68 · f9a5ab71-1aef-57e4-a8e0-5497ed1170b8
Feb 20130.58Feb 20130.54e79f5a25-4819-5621-88ea-9a80bff92262 · 1eca92aa-837f-5bf3-9556-9429ff7a4e4c
Mar 2013-2.49Mar 2013-0.28745dbf00-101c-54ad-89c3-d3972fa50018 · a19d9fff-7553-51fd-9748-20be80d208b0
Apr 2013-0.99Apr 2013-0.2136972fb5-21ed-5dcb-bf77-e563776dd2a7 · 7fe33c54-f5d5-5a00-81d3-8d2827624caf
May 20132.66May 20130.04fc324eaf-f4eb-5412-bb94-1cc4fe3da832 · c8ed1c56-7f73-59fc-a74a-79805f6e4d0e
Jun 20131.38Jun 20130.24f812def6-5df5-5786-8403-4f24cff98c93 · 6cba1123-3c49-591a-a87c-293a8eed6a72
Jul 20139.29Jul 20130.20e034aa4e-5a5f-51a0-a962-aaee06a447ac · 14a636a8-2a9e-51cb-b278-e98df6db91b6
Aug 20131.82Aug 20130.2403e867e7-68e5-55d2-9488-1d12006a9a31 · c6a14202-d39f-53be-8db6-3375c64df45c
Sep 2013-0.27Sep 20130.040bd62cc7-7ed1-578a-859e-605bcd8ccfe9 · dfae0d64-1fe6-5598-a0cd-374053fa853f
Oct 2013-5.41Oct 20130.058f2a5ef0-cfeb-591d-8d04-d1adbd7d33be · 566fb0fc-025c-58ba-b6d0-420055f7f689
Nov 2013-6.64Nov 20130.1841dc9b6a-8ca1-57d6-a9eb-8b5f4f62aaf9 · 20d4777e-237b-58eb-b080-afdcae78a378
Dec 20133.97Dec 20130.269c32aa2a-9a9b-5229-ab87-cb86700164bc · dc8afaf2-1928-5baa-8ab6-5403c38ffa44
Jan 2014-3.05Jan 20140.246eb27943-8cb5-5c16-a68e-a40a071b0a1c · af7fb07b-9cd3-5aac-adde-7f46d6cfbd1c
Feb 20146.55Feb 20140.112f87c318-bbf9-54d3-9187-d83383be3460 · dbfefd24-c82d-5373-bace-6b44bce4cbba
Mar 2014-0.01Mar 20140.20a7e9621c-2e92-5b5c-abc7-9a3aaad1e59a · 821cfae5-bbef-5829-be54-fd9354f3f06f
Apr 20141.26Apr 20140.19ca32cdea-e286-5c6e-b71a-30c9e45876aa · 3342d0d4-8aa5-5f07-90be-0c36799d7d7c
May 20140.11May 20140.197b9d848a-94d5-59e9-86b0-11f8fed952e9 · bb835e83-e24a-57ba-9feb-5f2e9bed6b91
Jun 20143.54Jun 20140.136bc2bc55-da2f-5108-be5b-f3e121292788 · ededa498-1378-5356-83d9-ed64d52f6f98
Jul 2014-2.08Jul 20140.11be611354-9578-5113-99a4-20382ff7002e · 709b9e73-0151-54a2-9397-db35a459b82f
Aug 2014-6.81Aug 2014-0.0208cb11b6-71fe-5ad3-84f1-256615ad2b15 · 0789aa5c-2e9e-5fa8-a222-6f127da7cb7e
Sep 2014-3.44Sep 20140.015eeed0ec-37ec-51eb-8fda-aba1fb367295 · 6a27f775-5247-5378-a0d7-ee926f4bd773
Oct 2014-9.16Oct 2014-0.02bf5a4085-e8db-5cf0-ac84-7a02641b0306 · 200468d8-767c-5472-9bab-e4dce8114d87
Nov 2014-10.49Nov 2014-0.19fcdc73ea-14ba-5c81-8ab8-4d2f8ff166f6 · f5127f9f-187a-592f-a035-d412926910a1
Dec 2014-22.06Dec 2014-0.318ef4e735-146e-51b7-a375-2615808ea4be · f5429253-2900-5f8d-835c-461ba9948fa7
Jan 2015-18.88Jan 2015-0.6440473705-019c-598c-a0c7-ad1aefb6efb1 · df21c670-6ec0-579b-a2d3-d2c0edc5cf52
Feb 20156.00Feb 20150.255b6c2078-276c-5ffc-bbb2-2bd681207cd9 · 5ff1e769-3c05-5ad7-97ec-71c8d2d4b3df
Mar 2015-5.84Mar 20150.27fe65ad5d-9e01-5ff0-a769-ef0f114745a4 · b7f0f161-378e-5ae5-991b-590b4c12e873
Apr 201513.86Apr 20150.10554370f3-31f9-5ae9-833b-81ceae4985dc · abf32f11-4dd7-5747-8023-c4583a74fc5b
May 20158.84May 20150.338955efa0-a887-5c94-a03b-519875ccf2d8 · 2f646b46-7929-5c14-a8df-ce01f8bfa363
Jun 20150.94Jun 20150.28577bcb0f-dd88-5304-b6cf-6f112d1ff5b9 · 7c66959f-6c32-507c-b280-35767e5e8889
Jul 2015-14.91Jul 20150.16fcd2104d-1630-58d7-a152-4b724008162f · 13bd3796-6c0b-54ce-8d8a-87fad4c5436f
Aug 2015-15.78Aug 20150.004ab4c70c-b4da-5945-a62e-db938bdfbccd · 6326711e-d5c9-5da1-9d2e-b85642e3efad
Sep 20156.09Sep 2015-0.22715f1fb1-d0c3-5c49-9e77-30b8c3f33c88 · ad6cbfe4-445f-5de4-87a1-f4a14b6d5435
Oct 20151.64Oct 20150.1000bbaeac-25d9-5cef-b61a-4e7b0c9ddb99 · 9d4a01bc-2f07-5a50-8c99-e572908093a8
Nov 2015-8.18Nov 20150.128357273b-73fc-51df-ab63-69e617995ac9 · 5adde6fc-f0ae-542d-b1f9-bf3a5ac0ad91
Dec 2015-12.38Dec 2015-0.11718fba24-69d4-5346-b600-c0f7b33700db · 9aa88649-0f86-513a-a889-8ac87bda81d3
Jan 2016-14.80Jan 2016-0.0540fce37e-1e9c-5bed-9dc7-b2c679a7daf2 · 16e536fd-a2a4-51d0-964f-6c384e4deba1
Feb 2016-4.29Feb 2016-0.131b932d1e-7b0b-5ae6-b17e-f453df311aae · 717cc282-885c-5032-918e-a55d9e913acf
Mar 201623.82Mar 20160.31a2bcf730-a8ad-52f8-88ef-ecc9b5d41580 · 451aceae-7d6b-546b-9929-0151a61e002c
Apr 20168.55Apr 20160.38e96bb910-f77b-53b4-812f-84b42d97a4e1 · 8423c0bc-198e-51f9-a0e1-8503efd6c6ea
May 201614.62May 20160.24b1b1942e-6360-525b-bda7-2fd69c460e45 · eb830bcd-29cd-51fe-b9d7-44cfba553858
Jun 20164.38Jun 20160.2874dd53fd-4818-5d29-96df-945d4f8a31ae · 0545efe3-1036-5159-ad23-570d24781a8e
Jul 2016-8.42Jul 2016-0.05936716bf-1ec9-57a1-921c-a60a22c76602 · 7d5d12c1-4935-517e-90e6-bb482eaa638d
Aug 20160.16Aug 20160.18f7312088-5a6e-5300-ac67-9f54e47169a1 · 02c5c7ac-547f-57f6-a0ef-1ff957a484f6
Sep 20161.02Sep 20160.26a22fec1d-0c2a-5bfc-af24-078080d391aa · cebc8aff-be7e-51d5-826c-82dcdda37285
Oct 201610.17Oct 20160.23d4050c79-0bd2-5d4c-9b5e-34296643d17f · 8e4af42c-1950-56d7-8265-f22c05457526
Nov 2016-8.27Nov 20160.12032f6103-ee30-5934-af9d-8866208eddb0 · 2762ca20-1390-5e6b-8677-b9710b3fd73c
Dec 201613.82Dec 20160.2552ae4425-a588-590d-a284-c7ae051a64eb · 08bc10c0-c25c-5972-b91a-eb45805fa2f7
Jan 20171.03Jan 20170.40d504d6cc-8e2d-572c-ac34-cd0031815794 · baf1a3c3-9373-5528-85fb-3c839b5f6a0f
Feb 20171.84Feb 20170.169ee61a07-e691-5336-80d5-05bbfd0177a5 · d424b655-35bc-51ed-bdbb-0b1e5029498e
Mar 2017-7.74Mar 2017-0.05109151e1-0795-5365-8d17-596d75630dbe · 26202916-918a-57c4-a1f1-d8283243275d
Apr 20173.51Apr 20170.12e91707a2-33da-51dd-baa1-566ae503b656 · fa732c4b-5af7-5fd5-ab6b-6733884e6d6e
May 2017-5.06May 2017-0.080a9559da-c2d1-581e-a886-0b6c9151c2d2 · 58899f0e-21ef-50b3-8a9a-8a8fc7a21671
Jun 2017-6.80Jun 20170.07c7a504f4-229d-52cf-b0d8-2c8a30a3ef95 · 613c271d-a7aa-57e0-a327-1b9d2889cc4a
Jul 20173.22Jul 20170.030800aa49-4883-5460-8ad6-645fc73ea35b · 07d09718-d98a-534c-bada-ecf3bb2e02f1
Aug 20173.02Aug 20170.38c0d5301b-fca9-5935-9f5f-0b5ca7f5d34e · 08cbd9ba-125e-5354-8332-4760f22d5852
Sep 20173.72Sep 20170.510583551b-7b5a-5d75-90b0-54ca2d518c06 · df3d900b-2c13-5495-86c7-aec5032dae3f
Oct 20173.52Oct 20170.084c53e939-2aa6-546d-ba6f-819ac3d9a533 · f92da402-f629-5781-8ddd-a68fea023913
Nov 20179.81Nov 20170.270455176e-6d42-5fee-92f8-3c9dba989e70 · d9ad5f02-a168-50b2-94f4-14598df745b1
Dec 20172.19Dec 20170.21b704ea47-1b7c-5da2-ad7a-44c451b37f98 · cc498362-d8c0-5251-8ab6-b45a6bf8c216
Jan 201810.05Jan 20180.4343ff9064-cafc-541f-9687-bd7ce0e08a8b · 1f0812d7-a80a-5665-b015-3afd30bfb258
Feb 2018-2.31Feb 20180.27b99c0309-28ab-5d68-a942-91f42a848657 · 36f63988-5a92-59fb-9102-2ad0460b16bc
Mar 20180.80Mar 20180.02ee3b603b-fffe-5977-9e52-f9aa73c813c9 · ff453108-eb4c-55fb-ab99-a06d0a42eab1
Apr 20185.63Apr 20180.2617c58b31-d431-56dc-b47e-d77fe513e9dc · 7a3d99f1-11ae-5900-8999-c2c68b531dd7
May 20185.62May 20180.23e9fafc3d-9cec-5869-b0aa-427864b93618 · 37792c1a-34b7-5c66-97c2-ec8550a56d9a
Jun 2018-3.01Jun 20180.092bdd683e-cc5c-5f05-a875-9c9c5979545e · e7009fdb-b102-5cc3-a578-f01986004efb
Jul 20184.58Jul 20180.08eebead14-1a8d-5f4e-80f9-14945dc275ca · 7fd43c55-0460-5cc6-bb2b-c95ec2129591
Aug 2018-4.12Aug 20180.1840cacba5-8943-509e-beae-29a84a5b1c47 · eb883fbc-7570-5d4d-918d-e2929c440c71
Sep 20183.20Sep 20180.2182b86b6b-be25-5654-9817-815e7c15c85c · b31fb076-5fa2-5114-9b32-f7444c73b76f
Oct 20180.74Oct 20180.23b23450e4-42df-5f9c-9da7-17e18539d467 · bc6172a4-53ba-5ccc-8bf8-22020e93b528
Nov 2018-19.48Nov 2018-0.077a83c8ac-2672-53a0-855c-1359e82914c1 · 91d2e8f1-db19-5cb3-b615-6c01adff9345
Dec 2018-13.06Dec 20180.07a32f20ae-7c51-5e6e-9c2a-95da92ceb112 · 3cc160a6-3e8c-5f60-94b8-ecc563d5da87
Jan 20193.74Jan 2019-0.08f1d40d83-dec9-5d52-a8d0-716b91c91e78 · 95fd4dc6-e590-539f-baa9-1cc564116915
Feb 20196.97Feb 20190.3036a3abc9-e606-599e-a792-c2227d48464d · f12edac2-3524-53d7-8268-a2eb676c1ed8
Mar 20195.82Mar 20190.38a1acb284-e7dd-5419-8347-f00a9a49e325 · b667bf81-81d0-5203-a673-ddd34f6fbd08
Apr 20199.82Apr 20190.38a82c8fd7-9a7b-53d0-9b15-214a2c54f091 · 9ca2d27c-9f59-5346-8347-70feeb1c287d
May 2019-4.75May 20190.029cb0b8b5-f5f8-5f6b-8b4b-33eb0abbbe8e · c9df8846-8e90-5a2b-95a7-8d844b8a3b09
Jun 2019-10.14Jun 2019-0.037e3c37ee-c35c-5b5e-a642-9654e01e5b9b · 063b0c0f-a2ab-51f8-887b-6b1736c7cce2
Jul 20194.94Jul 20190.230ce1dd1a-d9e7-5d5a-bc7c-f4fa178025a5 · 4e7bc6e0-b0cc-5498-8796-5de20f2782a0
Aug 2019-4.45Aug 20190.09ca3e4986-04d7-549a-ae63-0674371e50dc · a221f05e-b31c-52ce-bdba-a82e0d32fb33
Sep 20193.91Sep 20190.152c2e4358-fe97-594f-837f-5140b4e466db · e27ed270-6d1b-5d0e-a5f2-71569e3104cb
Oct 2019-5.24Oct 20190.2837af6740-22d3-5f47-968d-477d04102dcb · 0af0867d-d3e6-5162-9890-aef875811bb4
Nov 20195.72Nov 20190.281f5f6d64-a5e7-58a6-a251-eaaed71177cb · 74a97fb0-f4f4-5baa-b7cb-f5a5bd61d3ab
Dec 20194.85Dec 20190.29dc1dcd7a-56bc-509b-bea8-2cf3a545ac8f · cc4ed7ec-4443-5fe3-b8e4-3e1a168e9025
Jan 2020-3.84Jan 20200.19eba8fa80-5eaf-53ba-b711-5da208f38065 · 39f9e56b-56dd-5c3c-9fcb-7e8e85776bd3
Feb 2020-12.13Feb 20200.0509d552c4-d3ff-5448-bce2-cf5fbed24253 · 0b75b4bc-558d-520b-b830-959f07519fd9
Mar 2020-42.21Mar 2020-0.4512df3d7d-f0cc-5621-806f-eb5a210fe80e · 83648ea3-d849-5c99-857f-053a5ff8f807
Apr 2020-43.35Apr 2020-0.7942790712-4266-50f9-9809-47c7b7d68e81 · 88f62e94-b70f-5011-8936-e4da63e4c4fe
May 202072.61May 2020-0.09973b08fd-7212-546b-8890-4b6a206cb629 · eeecc0f6-3c20-5f5f-84f0-f408f817dddf
Jun 202034.12Jun 20200.486a498939-9612-57e2-adf3-70724c141312 · 1b6494a5-0533-53df-b693-3c2690d13c59
Jul 20206.27Jul 20200.5141459a42-5f28-51a0-b59e-5f4bd9ebdbd7 · f8ef9043-e979-538b-a79a-1ea27f38afb7
Aug 20204.00Aug 20200.37a21777bf-625a-5ce1-9002-c42f527b8c3d · 8edb7b30-d993-5539-9539-b4e3f0d189e6
Sep 2020-6.39Sep 20200.26a635b8ed-17b6-57d0-b4ee-0a7dcc5c4e9f · 3aeccaee-ddd9-5990-94a5-56c93a17198b
Oct 2020-0.60Oct 20200.125cccb02d-dfc3-5f24-8b70-59a1f676dbf4 · d07d32eb-0a54-51b6-8034-f9007274c6b5
Nov 20203.91Nov 20200.2305064c93-bb02-5d59-80fb-d2914dcbcc1d · b41b8519-fdc5-5bd3-9e16-97945e4a5378
Dec 202014.87Dec 20200.43f65e6a15-22a9-5c85-b1d6-84c60f332822 · af7ebe92-8a47-5ce5-a053-fd518e7b4846
Jan 202110.60Jan 20210.24fbfcebde-6de1-5687-9bc1-cb4b45c2d741 · 3ccec982-a3d6-583e-9d06-4a82c4e9d0e5
Feb 202113.53Feb 20210.3410c7f64b-31ed-53cd-b53b-a00510438b9e · 97bba4c1-c324-529e-83df-0033ecbd75a7
Mar 20215.57Mar 20210.52fd20dbff-7b8f-5eb6-be28-e1ebfc66eec1 · 1e89fbb0-6f0b-5e68-bb9c-7e9a4eb8c511
Apr 2021-0.99Apr 20210.625726a497-aca5-506c-84ce-7c1d02515d18 · 09ef12a6-c165-599e-9f88-a2a1e3c30e20
May 20215.59May 20210.66d3f4a353-05b4-5e6e-a5e7-3a13d998f7fd · 7d78bda1-7853-5084-9d47-d15b909a9425
Jun 20219.53Jun 20210.85017770b0-aa19-5d75-beef-2382c5ea6033 · f5a466fa-3b60-597c-b9de-690b5d7a3c19
Jul 20211.55Jul 20210.4652dd0ea0-260f-5585-a2fd-8ec50de2dd84 · 19ae1979-6c67-59f6-b667-9fdbf0300947
Aug 2021-6.56Aug 20210.28f57f3362-62e2-5b24-9bda-442255297d93 · bb7ae9e9-6812-5663-aa31-98830d308628
Sep 20215.78Sep 20210.45393f37f2-dd13-59d1-82dd-ccfd3bddc9e5 · 377d0437-25bf-5d8f-8a01-c42ed6ff1155
Oct 202113.72Oct 20210.96a1028473-1a82-5b4d-a4e2-32280486ca29 · ec1ffb63-b995-551e-93a3-45223e1717eb
Nov 2021-2.86Nov 20210.86909790d6-fdb8-56f2-af09-2f1ed1f8c6d8 · c2bd373d-b4ce-5fc8-87f5-aaf5395863fe
Dec 2021-9.39Dec 20210.69f8509a0f-8d0f-54d2-981a-5bc7be755353 · 6625f44e-32a3-5155-88b5-0ce620bd4065
Jan 202216.05Jan 20220.60e66b2e9b-f5e5-5f38-a5d6-74e217592468 · 1153be24-0635-5e96-b4d7-767d098cbc29
Feb 202210.12Feb 20220.6999dc30d8-35d5-505d-9a68-425fe5170d20 · f06b6117-4b00-5a34-b58d-765a7a6a169e
Mar 202218.40Mar 20221.12d623b67f-9bf8-51d6-90dc-648f74ef6ef5 · 545ff6eb-6c4e-5a92-8f40-6eabd4ecf76b
Apr 2022-6.20Apr 20220.312eb138e0-29e7-5086-a8d8-c15ad3b92cfa · ffe9a725-96d4-5f4a-8f4e-ca10c11df6ce
May 20227.64May 20220.95d7125444-c7d5-5fd2-b290-24e88452f4e8 · 917cbac6-57da-536d-bdc7-9896a0389b6c
Jun 20224.82Jun 20221.269a3eb056-9f19-5a51-94ad-538bd8916051 · ff865af9-dadb-5129-a453-4aa7247428ad
Jul 2022-11.51Jul 2022-0.01b3e512a2-fa73-50b0-84e7-fb3b07ab0c2c · 0da17285-bfb0-595d-9080-04982e4c66f6
Aug 2022-7.83Aug 20220.06993e7625-2119-58db-9257-db338afdeef3 · be2c8521-b624-54e9-a4e4-c9d917a02d41
Sep 2022-10.04Sep 20220.425fc039dc-1784-5c9f-bbb0-e6c13e8c955d · 9861adc6-e463-59ca-b483-f1a5143d0ccf
Oct 20223.91Oct 20220.564ba9a49c-0477-5d5f-a61c-206c8686d85d · 1765631c-d7fa-566e-9e28-c1fa12c7e4d4
Nov 2022-3.64Nov 20220.266f47e9e4-14d9-5f09-9e89-97174e1a853b · d792008f-e078-5106-b5a3-8b2cbc4e2619
Dec 2022-9.40Dec 20220.024ab72036-49e3-5dfd-91cf-b254dd17eb13 · 35700a66-5214-573f-93f7-367e0a3fe95c
Jan 20232.21Jan 20230.53ddafd8f1-c8fd-5e81-9adb-63964c823578 · 0c8063fd-c6ef-5bad-8926-d62720eb18c8
Feb 2023-1.65Feb 20230.345938950b-ec7f-5e8e-9cdd-3230b4bc5794 · 6ff8db9d-6e89-59d6-8d5f-bc81157be7a7
Mar 2023-4.63Mar 20230.126bbd6c21-c452-50c7-9d24-7f28cad2ef82 · f90138b6-8602-5553-89bd-66a759d327c3
Apr 20238.42Apr 20230.34f2578bb9-dde0-520f-9a4e-852810d25857 · f1a4749f-d3e8-5408-9634-0d2b3f27c44c
May 2023-9.90May 20230.16238a05f1-555c-54b7-8b0f-11ed846a0877 · 24a4f05a-79fb-5232-abcd-95d552b61599
Jun 2023-1.86Jun 20230.22fa4cfb0f-29a2-58b9-a0ad-7ad43e1c5991 · c52de4c6-dcad-5546-89af-f160ae7b450e
Jul 20238.29Jul 20230.20bfb12eb0-2180-5cad-854d-a4e889c42f58 · 68bf4f67-8395-5a1b-97eb-2852a977a14f
Aug 20236.99Aug 20230.480ec42662-c311-5e7d-a9f6-f9677b8f838c · baa9bde3-1c14-5462-baa8-5be21e07b5e6
Sep 20239.88Sep 20230.39c11d8bd7-dd24-5fe7-b880-438132a9ee25 · a8a7560c-9338-52d2-adcf-f7552809bb9e
Oct 2023-4.23Oct 20230.14bb2ef324-e696-5251-91e8-0ac8a97a0309 · ea294de1-5900-57e5-8ba0-e79d5c70a353
Nov 2023-9.29Nov 20230.150cb6bfd9-e2bc-521d-8026-8dfda36893e6 · d40cd8fb-b47a-50d7-aeaf-a368c6160043
Dec 2023-7.45Dec 20230.19d60ad88d-5237-5287-ba87-04547207b5fe · fbde1e42-cc57-51f4-bbf5-b60fc886ed19
Jan 20243.13Jan 20240.31df2eb720-c9b6-521e-a976-1eb090adf377 · b652a55a-1527-5d98-b7ee-cadd3a5c6592
Feb 20244.18Feb 20240.4141f9dc9a-5570-5f6d-b971-978f446cfb0b · f9c59ea1-9d0a-58a5-b090-e2503c7d55e3
Mar 20245.22Mar 20240.44a0b47d2e-4672-5185-a469-e7092352b21e · f130ac91-18ad-52ed-8431-c1138609d9b7
Apr 20245.01Apr 20240.2259353564-6252-59bb-ae22-77e1fe5c1497 · c30e3d27-9302-57b9-aaa4-6b9576fa1f66
May 2024-6.24May 20240.0562624914-90d9-53c0-b2c0-5cd40eda4c14 · 110749c0-4a5b-586d-8f87-9b720f611529
Jun 2024-0.32Jun 2024-0.045d06d2fc-9612-5086-bc30-fbd280e0c1c7 · 0247b728-c93a-5bad-bb5c-67d8f48e907f
Jul 20242.55Jul 20240.1731736ed6-e970-5cb2-83bc-807d08849277 · e692ab3b-f944-5d47-b4a9-6d2ec482d979
Aug 2024-6.26Aug 20240.168d42d2ef-3bd7-58dc-b871-a5be2c6bf4e8 · 2635ab41-2b8b-59a9-9d1a-6c4ad6c77aee
Sep 2024-8.41Sep 20240.21e1dc0401-aa27-5c25-bd6c-2e540dea092c · 053be38e-1904-5dea-b505-08d3fac6fac6
Oct 20242.49Oct 20240.29d4e42498-e78c-575a-a4ed-63ecf1b2ab9a · 76c50742-2fba-51af-b115-7443cdf8db97
Nov 2024-2.83Nov 20240.285d9abbe6-f974-5fac-a5b3-23b386682e8e · 52de1215-0256-5c05-8ec0-306d52940897
Dec 20240.24Dec 20240.346234426b-6650-564f-b867-e9f08152e93a · 14fa8880-4fba-51c8-89b3-f2c0f02c39a6
Jan 20258.02Jan 20250.4344c1b4f7-7c15-5457-a230-75b304264e8e · 37c91b81-617a-5325-820e-b07f6ced05a0
Feb 2025-5.56Feb 20250.23317efaa7-ddcb-50de-9dbc-19bb2b904d73 · 89060afd-2bc7-5b44-90e7-e6a156c6c719
Mar 2025-4.61Mar 20250.032a0effb0-3677-5c3c-b38c-0d6e8a6bc70e · 6b210761-6f75-5240-a9ac-74d44c82e4cb
Apr 2025-6.89Apr 20250.16feb54ce1-bbdb-5205-8904-743cca344fac · d43611ea-e07b-5b0f-a2a6-7e1c403c94ab
May 2025-2.15May 20250.10d3898a6e-a4e2-58c7-a5af-e52764b0c25d · d4e7330f-7318-5eaa-a232-a31b70d9d79e
Jun 20259.65Jun 20250.2528a5f11a-859e-5720-a6a9-f31a2dd36f65 · 891152ca-eee9-5f21-bb87-1707aa81aed3
Jul 20250.33Jul 20250.23f574428f-3677-5fc9-ac1a-b259937a1d6a · e257e5fb-0e78-5315-bf12-1bb3d55618b9
Aug 2025-5.16Aug 20250.3544ad9f87-0152-5d68-939b-b82ed5079372 · 0beb220d-a055-5642-9781-522a52b49c95
Sep 2025-1.40Sep 20250.30b7a77d19-4cee-52b3-b921-ca03ba57a267 · 0495b378-b298-5f68-8c42-c96fc14ebcc9
Dec 2025-3.48Dec 20250.30942f04ff-a7dc-55d1-9706-4e21b8e51ca6 · 433155fe-3a97-596e-a4d8-9f8f4c7ddfd8
Jan 20263.56Jan 20260.17628ff31d-b541-5044-bf7f-6b39f341bf94 · 2d4a2394-721f-5b6d-b483-af908b264b6f
Feb 20267.45Feb 20260.27ed88a1a1-2309-584a-9318-0ce35abcd0fb · 6302b534-ec87-5eb6-8317-29050b80e141
Mar 202641.66Mar 20260.87846646cf-03c9-5d9b-a753-e278e8f1843f · 9d2b1298-f4b9-522d-9ff7-6604d7182e7b
Apr 20269.78Apr 20260.6484866a8c-f581-59b4-b030-d83a83b16130 · 8689b8ee-c72a-58f0-96f7-9f23667e0edc
May 20261.81May 20260.477c07a139-8429-5869-8e34-0ccbc4f4e536 · dbec2644-c4cb-5d00-a4ea-f43a1d1b858e
Jun 2026-16.96Jun 2026-0.42dbf15fd9-7007-5937-8653-75c391136b55 · 970c451d-840b-57c1-ace9-7d7bd90db9f1
Jul 2026-5.13Jul 20260.07ca12bb17-a97b-5ffb-a32f-849b7c0f5df4 · 48c5926a-3736-5488-9299-fbcb53711663
Aug 20264.28Aug 20260.408968cd6e-9c59-5047-88be-0bd2398ab8a9 · a1e8ac94-ed3b-5a77-a682-3c549136fead
Sep 202615.98Sep 20260.65b37030f2-46b2-50db-b949-aa48a6f8670c · 9c4c381b-818d-5109-9100-d79470be116d

Whole-system comparison

Co-movement across prices, oil and the Fed rate

Each cell is the correlation between two monthly series over the months both were published: seasonally adjusted monthly price changes for CPI items, monthly changes for oil and the Fed rate. A correlation describes co-movement in this sample. It does not measure how much of one price passes into another, and it cannot tell cause from common cause.

Months in the windowJanuary 2021 to September 2026

Coefficients need at least 36 matched months. ★ marks a Pearson 95% interval that excludes zero after allowing for month-to-month persistence; ⊂ marks a pair where one item is part of the other, so the two are not independent evidence.

Correlation matrix

Same-month co-movement

Pearson r on exact calendar-month matches; each cell shows its own sample size. Select a cell to read the pair in full below. Teal is positive, rust is negative; darker is stronger.

X ↓ / Y →All itemsFood at homeFood awayGasolineElectricityUtility gasCore goodsUsed carsShelterTransport svcsAirline faresMedical svcsWTI oilFed rate
All items
Food at home
Food away
Gasoline
Electricity
Utility gas
Core goods
Used cars
Shelter
Transport svcs
Airline fares
Medical svcs
WTI oil
Fed rate
−1 · inverse0 · little linear relation+1 · positive

WTI oil → Gasoline (all types)

monthly % change against % change on the month, SA, same month, from January 2021

Pearson r
.78
Spearman ρ
.70
Matched months
68
Independent months, about
63
95% interval for r
.66 to .86

A strong positive same-month co-movement in this sample; the interval excludes zero. Co-movement is not pass-through, and a common cause such as demand or supply shocks can move both.

Inspect the 68 matched months and serving row IDs
MonthWTI oilGasolineObservation IDs
Jan 202110.607.40fbfcebde-6de1-5687-9bc1-cb4b45c2d741 · 2b406233-a791-5995-8347-b7db480b546d
Feb 202113.536.4010c7f64b-31ed-53cd-b53b-a00510438b9e · 4d40c80b-2791-52e3-a4c2-cfb7ea351afa
Mar 20215.579.10fd20dbff-7b8f-5eb6-be28-e1ebfc66eec1 · 51519e00-5c6f-5922-aa1e-9d356a508593
Apr 2021-0.99-1.405726a497-aca5-506c-84ce-7c1d02515d18 · dbcd35f1-50dd-524c-9e95-1994c0cc34c4
May 20215.59-0.70d3f4a353-05b4-5e6e-a5e7-3a13d998f7fd · 34a075e2-1926-5c7c-98a8-1f71f8e9f0b7
Jun 20219.532.50017770b0-aa19-5d75-beef-2382c5ea6033 · e9661d41-77c8-5f07-a571-8c361e6a208a
Jul 20211.552.4052dd0ea0-260f-5585-a2fd-8ec50de2dd84 · 300c2769-7a94-59c1-aa6b-a6f1dcf82933
Aug 2021-6.562.80f57f3362-62e2-5b24-9bda-442255297d93 · a70e3cf1-ff32-5eeb-92f7-24b58d1fc2cc
Sep 20215.781.20393f37f2-dd13-59d1-82dd-ccfd3bddc9e5 · 721b6566-ed3b-5f4b-a6e5-79eefed24ab3
Oct 202113.726.10a1028473-1a82-5b4d-a4e2-32280486ca29 · 6bf1f2a0-5bc1-5f51-889e-ff80c58ffe3b
Nov 2021-2.866.10909790d6-fdb8-56f2-af09-2f1ed1f8c6d8 · 77b32dfe-4a1f-5ebb-b411-168f50145966
Dec 2021-9.39-0.50f8509a0f-8d0f-54d2-981a-5bc7be755353 · 6f4a148d-d277-54b7-8436-74e3e5f5904c
Jan 202216.05-0.80e66b2e9b-f5e5-5f38-a5d6-74e217592468 · e5e1b579-56b7-5012-8e33-00645d2abdc3
Feb 202210.126.6099dc30d8-35d5-505d-9a68-425fe5170d20 · 758c37cd-964c-5f97-836c-15d23958f3c1
Mar 202218.4018.30d623b67f-9bf8-51d6-90dc-648f74ef6ef5 · 660dc046-e6ee-59cd-b25b-95044cd2c165
Apr 2022-6.20-6.102eb138e0-29e7-5086-a8d8-c15ad3b92cfa · 8a205d2f-832d-5ba6-ad36-463095467db0
May 20227.644.10d7125444-c7d5-5fd2-b290-24e88452f4e8 · 5a56c40d-d7c2-5ec2-9154-2638f4782009
Jun 20224.8211.209a3eb056-9f19-5a51-94ad-538bd8916051 · f0bb6de2-962b-5670-93f7-b57c80b1414c
Jul 2022-11.51-7.70b3e512a2-fa73-50b0-84e7-fb3b07ab0c2c · bb23a74b-f241-57d3-91af-212f512fcdd9
Aug 2022-7.83-10.60993e7625-2119-58db-9257-db338afdeef3 · 6a0411ba-8e48-5d52-8be5-f869a882719a
Sep 2022-10.04-4.905fc039dc-1784-5c9f-bbb0-e6c13e8c955d · 2d262a19-863b-5bc4-8dc8-e2b49aa8053f
Oct 20223.914.004ba9a49c-0477-5d5f-a61c-206c8686d85d · 849ddab9-f3fc-529f-a83e-f8835763c59a
Nov 2022-3.64-2.006f47e9e4-14d9-5f09-9e89-97174e1a853b · 725e3016-a649-5c51-aa1e-e4b30583d299
Dec 2022-9.40-9.404ab72036-49e3-5dfd-91cf-b254dd17eb13 · 5b981fb2-9596-58f0-80b7-6010ae902796
Jan 20232.212.40ddafd8f1-c8fd-5e81-9adb-63964c823578 · d577b74a-700b-59e0-9994-0fb9f52eaf2f
Feb 2023-1.651.005938950b-ec7f-5e8e-9cdd-3230b4bc5794 · e6943f0d-f3c4-5a13-9e92-3befcd37018a
Mar 2023-4.63-4.606bbd6c21-c452-50c7-9d24-7f28cad2ef82 · 7fba21cb-c077-5428-bcec-4312284c0e6e
Apr 20238.423.00f2578bb9-dde0-520f-9a4e-852810d25857 · c00ffeea-7a0d-5622-87d3-f8a27e9eab33
May 2023-9.90-5.60238a05f1-555c-54b7-8b0f-11ed846a0877 · 2340542f-2ad4-5b0b-a7b7-ca8c26d6cb41
Jun 2023-1.861.00fa4cfb0f-29a2-58b9-a0ad-7ad43e1c5991 · e6f8d2a1-81ef-58b7-8d57-a9dcf08ec205
Jul 20238.290.20bfb12eb0-2180-5cad-854d-a4e889c42f58 · 4af8086f-206c-55ae-996f-9b04c918583a
Aug 20236.9910.600ec42662-c311-5e7d-a9f6-f9677b8f838c · 758cef8e-497f-55ff-ae42-42c1a32df91a
Sep 20239.882.10c11d8bd7-dd24-5fe7-b880-438132a9ee25 · 5cd93121-350b-522f-9b26-113c40d425db
Oct 2023-4.23-5.00bb2ef324-e696-5251-91e8-0ac8a97a0309 · 183f712f-ca09-5b83-ba36-cd528a021ac0
Nov 2023-9.29-6.000cb6bfd9-e2bc-521d-8026-8dfda36893e6 · d2b14592-729f-5bbc-8686-0928f58c42b5
Dec 2023-7.450.20d60ad88d-5237-5287-ba87-04547207b5fe · a666db0f-92aa-5267-8d84-5d4bbb8048bc
Jan 20243.13-3.30df2eb720-c9b6-521e-a976-1eb090adf377 · 5add4906-8a85-55e7-aca9-e5bb4109bce1
Feb 20244.183.8041f9dc9a-5570-5f6d-b971-978f446cfb0b · be6acda6-c5ca-590c-9f7c-ed5fb72b7713
Mar 20245.221.70a0b47d2e-4672-5185-a469-e7092352b21e · 1946438a-c736-519e-8b8c-4f267af443c1
Apr 20245.012.8059353564-6252-59bb-ae22-77e1fe5c1497 · a72f008f-3552-5689-b3cf-68e30d9f14d0
May 2024-6.24-3.6062624914-90d9-53c0-b2c0-5cd40eda4c14 · ce80d12e-250b-5afe-81f0-bb6483875425
Jun 2024-0.32-3.805d06d2fc-9612-5086-bc30-fbd280e0c1c7 · 96ee948a-23b8-561d-9c52-52b6b3aceb75
Jul 20242.550.0031736ed6-e970-5cb2-83bc-807d08849277 · 832a2efa-d700-58a3-9b57-713f068e7025
Aug 2024-6.26-0.608d42d2ef-3bd7-58dc-b871-a5be2c6bf4e8 · 66cda56e-d734-5201-8666-1bfe97553220
Sep 2024-8.41-4.10e1dc0401-aa27-5c25-bd6c-2e540dea092c · 3a7ee3ee-8f6a-54ef-bb86-1cf72aea0c69
Oct 20242.49-0.90d4e42498-e78c-575a-a4ed-63ecf1b2ab9a · e3da0d0e-2eeb-56c6-9673-8528d82575ba
Nov 2024-2.830.605d9abbe6-f974-5fac-a5b3-23b386682e8e · 616449af-ff22-5aca-8972-e3e7f285ff26
Dec 20240.244.406234426b-6650-564f-b867-e9f08152e93a · d530d6f9-0cbb-5cc1-8cf4-8bdd4e6f61a4
Jan 20258.021.8044c1b4f7-7c15-5457-a230-75b304264e8e · 77334fea-b8af-5b6b-87cd-08c045ee2f93
Feb 2025-5.56-1.00317efaa7-ddcb-50de-9dbc-19bb2b904d73 · c4816527-92d5-56aa-a07d-6f91a6640894
Mar 2025-4.61-6.302a0effb0-3677-5c3c-b38c-0d6e8a6bc70e · d6ffed5c-e354-59f3-ba3c-76e2b3d9456c
Apr 2025-6.89-0.10feb54ce1-bbdb-5205-8904-743cca344fac · 284c40ce-7234-5653-9583-c5d4526164d9
May 2025-2.15-2.60d3898a6e-a4e2-58c7-a5af-e52764b0c25d · 4b2d4490-394e-5a8d-b67e-15d2bf0c3510
Jun 20259.651.0028a5f11a-859e-5720-a6a9-f31a2dd36f65 · c6d4e5b5-ac5f-5d25-aa3b-b2f9a853abea
Jul 20250.33-2.20f574428f-3677-5fc9-ac1a-b259937a1d6a · 144bca0c-a71b-578c-83c5-0489a1ea23d1
Aug 2025-5.161.9044ad9f87-0152-5d68-939b-b82ed5079372 · be5ba9c9-b97e-5963-8c7c-678389252354
Sep 2025-1.404.10b7a77d19-4cee-52b3-b921-ca03ba57a267 · d059e2ab-7feb-550b-bc65-8f9193b11a60
Nov 2025-1.373.00e60feda5-2734-5872-9d74-7e9a2c8f84e5 · b8f6b2a0-632b-5c0a-8114-18b2ae2f7212
Dec 2025-3.48-0.50942f04ff-a7dc-55d1-9706-4e21b8e51ca6 · b7f77a35-4c8a-59f7-abbe-87cfe104f898
Jan 20263.56-3.20628ff31d-b541-5044-bf7f-6b39f341bf94 · e6602ba5-2643-5720-97de-55eef1738054
Feb 20267.450.80ed88a1a1-2309-584a-9318-0ce35abcd0fb · a737a28b-6129-5712-94f6-04f8c3986d35
Mar 202641.6621.20846646cf-03c9-5d9b-a753-e278e8f1843f · a42afd4e-fcc5-5e1e-a664-d5a8b8501558
Apr 20269.785.4084866a8c-f581-59b4-b030-d83a83b16130 · bb92aa40-7a89-5d68-9508-7a5e5d6df982
May 20261.817.007c07a139-8429-5869-8e34-0ccbc4f4e536 · eccf61c4-3e6f-51ab-90a2-a004a6e59123
Jun 2026-16.96-9.70dbf15fd9-7007-5937-8653-75c391136b55 · ff8fb970-f644-5cfa-8f80-19f581bb3de8
Jul 2026-5.13-2.90ca12bb17-a97b-5ffb-a32f-849b7c0f5df4 · 637b3c37-f496-5d8c-9168-e71117734c1a
Aug 20264.283.908968cd6e-9c59-5047-88be-0bd2398ab8a9 · cae93032-3a3d-5f40-bf0a-8c3abb33213e
Sep 202615.989.10b37030f2-46b2-50db-b949-aa48a6f8670c · d3bf746d-0d45-57ae-a89f-1834039565f2

Lead–lag: WTI oil and prices

Pearson r between WTI oil (monthly % change) in one month and each item's seasonally adjusted price change the stated number of months later. Lead 0 is the same month.

Price change inSame month1 month later2 months later3 months later6 months later12 months later
All items.61★n=67.31★n=66.06n=65−.10n=64.06n=61.13n=55
Food at home.08n=67.19n=66.10n=65.14n=64.09n=61.17n=55
Food away−.18n=67−.17n=66−.07n=65.10n=64.05n=61.37★n=55
Gasoline.78★n=68.35★n=67.05n=66−.26★n=65−.03n=62−.06n=56
Electricity.20n=67.00n=66.21n=65.08n=64.07n=61−.02n=55
Utility gas.05n=67−.03n=66.06n=65.33★n=64.02n=61−.05n=55
New vehicles−.02n=68.03n=67.08n=66.17n=65.26n=62.11n=56
Used cars.01n=68.07n=67.12n=66.27n=65−.01n=62−.15n=56
Apparel.17n=67.13n=66.11n=65−.12n=64−.07n=61.17n=55
Rent−.20n=67−.03n=66−.10n=65−.09n=64−.03n=61.24n=55
Owners' equiv. rent−.20n=67−.10n=66−.14n=65−.10n=64.01n=61.16n=55
Shelter−.08n=67.06n=66−.16n=65−.23n=64−.01n=61.18n=55
Transport svcs.18n=67.16n=66−.09n=65−.01n=64.03n=61.29★n=55
Airline fares.14n=67.24n=66.18n=65.03n=64.07n=61.12n=55
Motor insurance.13n=66−.04n=65−.25n=64−.14n=63−.11n=60.14n=54
Medical svcs−.05n=67−.03n=66.19n=65.12n=64.26n=61−.19n=55

Of the 96 cells in this grid, about 5 would clear a 95% interval by chance alone; 8 do. Reading across many leads and items is a search, so treat an isolated ★ with no neighbouring support as likely noise, and treat a run of flagged leads as a pattern worth testing with quantity data.

Outside parent–child pairs, the strongest same-month co-movement is gasoline (all types) with WTI oil (r .78 over 68 months, interval excludes zero). 14 of the 78 independent pairs have an interval that excludes zero; about 4 would by chance. Gasoline (all types) moves with WTI oil in the same month (r .78) and still 1 month later (r .35). Shelter shows no linear relation with WTI oil at any lead tested (largest |r| .23).

Methods and reproducible inputs

Pairs match exact calendar months; a month without both values is dropped, never filled (October 2025 was not published). Pearson r is computed on the values and Spearman ρ on their ranks. The 95% interval uses the Fisher transform with an effective sample size n × (1 − ρx·ρy) / (1 + ρx·ρy), where ρx and ρy are each series' lag-1 autocorrelations over consecutive matched months; it needs twelve consecutive links and is not shown otherwise. Coefficients are suppressed below 36 matched months.

Items are the finest BLS categories that are published every month for this set; a parent and its child (shelter and rent, core goods and used cars, transport services and airline fares) move together partly by construction, which the ⊂ marker flags. All items contains every item. Drivers use the same transforms as the relationship lab above. Nothing here is a pass-through coefficient: that needs quantities, weights and an identification strategy.

Refresh 4523f1d2-40c6-52a4-b857-e523536583f3 · us-inflation-eb32963698e74efd · USA/USD · monthly data.

The Fed's side · from the US rates snapshot

Fed policy stance relative to inflation

Prices respond to policy with long and variable lags. These figures come from the US rates, growth and inflation topic's own approved snapshot (us-rates-94b9517e620b8db2), so they can end in a different month from the CPI figures above.

Policy rate minus core PCE inflation +0.63 pts Sep 2026: funds rate 3.75% less core PCE 3.12%
Funds rate against a simple rule −2.75 pts to −1.25 pts Q3 2026: actual minus the Taylor rule with a neutral real rate of 2% and of 0.5%. Below zero, policy is looser than the rule.
Inflation bond markets expect 2.35% Sep 2026: 10-year breakeven, the average inflation priced into Treasuries over the next decade
Policy moves followed by core inflation r = −0.18 at 12 months The lead with the largest correlation between a month's change in the funds rate and the change in core PCE inflation that many months later, since 1990; n = 429.

Per cent

  • Effective fed funds rate
  • Core PCE inflation
  • 10-year breakeven inflation
January 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.12% Core PCE inflation: 1.69% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.36%February 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.13% Core PCE inflation: 1.70% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.27%March 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.78% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.22%April 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.20% Core PCE inflation: 1.60% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.35%May 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.20% Core PCE inflation: 1.64% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.11%June 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.18% Core PCE inflation: 1.56% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.95%July 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.18% Core PCE inflation: 1.47% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.77%August 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.19% Core PCE inflation: 1.42% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.68%September 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.19% Core PCE inflation: 1.30% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.74%October 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.19% Core PCE inflation: 1.08% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.02%November 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.20% Core PCE inflation: 1.12% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.10%December 2010 Effective fed funds rate: 0.18% Core PCE inflation: 1.06% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.25%January 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.17% Core PCE inflation: 1.12% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.33%February 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.21% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.34%March 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.14% Core PCE inflation: 1.21% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.45%April 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.10% Core PCE inflation: 1.39% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.59%May 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.52% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.39%June 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.59% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.25%July 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.07% Core PCE inflation: 1.73% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.38%August 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.10% Core PCE inflation: 1.84% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.17%September 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 1.85% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.90%October 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.07% Core PCE inflation: 1.74% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.97%November 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 1.83% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.01%December 2011 Effective fed funds rate: 0.07% Core PCE inflation: 1.97% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.01%January 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 2.06% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.07%February 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.11% Core PCE inflation: 2.03% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.22%March 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.13% Core PCE inflation: 2.04% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.31%April 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.15% Core PCE inflation: 1.97% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.27%May 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.83% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.14%June 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.82% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.12%July 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.77% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.13%August 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.13% Core PCE inflation: 1.64% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.26%September 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.15% Core PCE inflation: 1.69% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.44%October 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.89% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.49%November 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.78% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.43%December 2012 Effective fed funds rate: 0.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.69% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.48%January 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.14% Core PCE inflation: 1.59% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.52%February 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.14% Core PCE inflation: 1.56% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.55%March 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.15% Core PCE inflation: 1.48% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.54%April 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.15% Core PCE inflation: 1.38% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.41%May 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.11% Core PCE inflation: 1.39% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.28%June 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.10% Core PCE inflation: 1.46% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.05%July 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.49% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.12%August 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 1.53% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.18%September 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 1.53% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.15%October 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.45% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.19%November 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 1.51% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.17%December 2013 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.55% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.16%January 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.07% Core PCE inflation: 1.45% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.23%February 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.07% Core PCE inflation: 1.39% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.16%March 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 1.45% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.17%April 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.57% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.16%May 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.62% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.19%June 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.10% Core PCE inflation: 1.56% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.23%July 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.61% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.26%August 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.54% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.20%September 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.55% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.07%October 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.47% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.92%November 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.10% Core PCE inflation: 1.39% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.88%December 2014 Effective fed funds rate: 0.12% Core PCE inflation: 1.36% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.70%January 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.12% Core PCE inflation: 1.21% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.61%February 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.11% Core PCE inflation: 1.28% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.72%March 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.11% Core PCE inflation: 1.28% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.76%April 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.12% Core PCE inflation: 1.29% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.86%May 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.12% Core PCE inflation: 1.25% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.87%June 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.13% Core PCE inflation: 1.25% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.87%July 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.13% Core PCE inflation: 1.18% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.82%August 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.14% Core PCE inflation: 1.22% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.61%September 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.14% Core PCE inflation: 1.23% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.52%October 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.12% Core PCE inflation: 1.18% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.50%November 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.12% Core PCE inflation: 1.20% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.57%December 2015 Effective fed funds rate: 0.23% Core PCE inflation: 1.19% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.52%January 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.36% Core PCE inflation: 1.41% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.42%February 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.37% Core PCE inflation: 1.47% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.31%March 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.36% Core PCE inflation: 1.46% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.55%April 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.37% Core PCE inflation: 1.52% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.61%May 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.37% Core PCE inflation: 1.57% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.59%June 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.38% Core PCE inflation: 1.55% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.47%July 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.40% Core PCE inflation: 1.60% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.47%August 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.40% Core PCE inflation: 1.70% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.47%September 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.39% Core PCE inflation: 1.69% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.51%October 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.40% Core PCE inflation: 1.78% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.67%November 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.41% Core PCE inflation: 1.72% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.82%December 2016 Effective fed funds rate: 0.54% Core PCE inflation: 1.77% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.94%January 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 0.66% Core PCE inflation: 1.86% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.01%February 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 0.66% Core PCE inflation: 1.87% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.02%March 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 0.79% Core PCE inflation: 1.68% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.00%April 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 0.91% Core PCE inflation: 1.64% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.91%May 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 0.91% Core PCE inflation: 1.55% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.84%June 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 1.04% Core PCE inflation: 1.58% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.73%July 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 1.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.50% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.77%August 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 1.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.43% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.78%September 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 1.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.42% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.83%October 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 1.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.54% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.86%November 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 1.16% Core PCE inflation: 1.55% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.86%December 2017 Effective fed funds rate: 1.30% Core PCE inflation: 1.58% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.90%January 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 1.42% Core PCE inflation: 1.63% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.04%February 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 1.42% Core PCE inflation: 1.64% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.10%March 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 1.51% Core PCE inflation: 1.91% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.09%April 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 1.69% Core PCE inflation: 1.88% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.13%May 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 1.70% Core PCE inflation: 1.98% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.14%June 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 1.82% Core PCE inflation: 1.94% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.12%July 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 1.91% Core PCE inflation: 2.00% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.11%August 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 1.91% Core PCE inflation: 1.90% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.10%September 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 1.95% Core PCE inflation: 1.96% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.12%October 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 2.19% Core PCE inflation: 1.87% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.11%November 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 2.20% Core PCE inflation: 2.01% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.00%December 2018 Effective fed funds rate: 2.27% Core PCE inflation: 2.04% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.82%January 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 2.40% Core PCE inflation: 1.84% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.79%February 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 2.40% Core PCE inflation: 1.74% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.88%March 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 2.40% Core PCE inflation: 1.62% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.91%April 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 2.42% Core PCE inflation: 1.64% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.94%May 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 2.39% Core PCE inflation: 1.56% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.83%June 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 2.38% Core PCE inflation: 1.66% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.70%July 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 2.40% Core PCE inflation: 1.64% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.75%August 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 2.13% Core PCE inflation: 1.75% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.59%September 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 2.05% Core PCE inflation: 1.63% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.59%October 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 1.83% Core PCE inflation: 1.62% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.56%November 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 1.55% Core PCE inflation: 1.50% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.64%December 2019 Effective fed funds rate: 1.55% Core PCE inflation: 1.54% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.72%January 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 1.55% Core PCE inflation: 1.59% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.72%February 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 1.58% Core PCE inflation: 1.70% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.62%March 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 0.63% Core PCE inflation: 1.53% 10-year breakeven inflation: 0.99%April 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 0.05% Core PCE inflation: 1.00% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.10%May 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 0.05% Core PCE inflation: 1.00% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.12%June 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 0.97% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.27%July 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.21% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.46%August 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.39% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.66%September 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.48% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.66%October 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.42% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.70%November 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.45% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.71%December 2020 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.51% 10-year breakeven inflation: 1.92%January 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 1.59% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.08%February 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 1.65% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.18%March 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.07% Core PCE inflation: 2.13% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.28%April 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.07% Core PCE inflation: 3.07% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.35%May 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.06% Core PCE inflation: 3.44% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.47%June 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 3.78% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.34%July 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.10% Core PCE inflation: 3.84% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.33%August 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.09% Core PCE inflation: 3.89% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.35%September 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 3.93% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.34%October 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 4.37% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.54%November 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 4.80% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.62%December 2021 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 5.08% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.46%January 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 5.33% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.45%February 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 0.08% Core PCE inflation: 5.57% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.46%March 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 0.20% Core PCE inflation: 5.56% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.85%April 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 0.33% Core PCE inflation: 5.29% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.88%May 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 0.76% Core PCE inflation: 5.17% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.69%June 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 1.19% Core PCE inflation: 5.30% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.62%July 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 1.65% Core PCE inflation: 5.22% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.36%August 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 2.33% Core PCE inflation: 5.40% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.51%September 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 2.58% Core PCE inflation: 5.64% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.38%October 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 3.08% Core PCE inflation: 5.51% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.39%November 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 3.76% Core PCE inflation: 5.29% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.37%December 2022 Effective fed funds rate: 4.09% Core PCE inflation: 5.07% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.26%January 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 4.33% Core PCE inflation: 5.00% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.24%February 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 4.57% Core PCE inflation: 4.86% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.33%March 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 4.65% Core PCE inflation: 4.86% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.30%April 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 4.83% Core PCE inflation: 4.85% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.27%May 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 5.05% Core PCE inflation: 4.83% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.21%June 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 5.08% Core PCE inflation: 4.44% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.20%July 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 5.12% Core PCE inflation: 4.24% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.30%August 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 3.83% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.34%September 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 3.74% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.34%October 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 3.56% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.39%November 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 3.44% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.30%December 2023 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 3.23% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.18%January 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 3.22% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.27%February 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 3.18% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.28%March 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 3.15% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.31%April 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 3.02% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.39%May 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.81% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.33%June 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.78% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.26%July 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.81% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.27%August 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 5.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.90% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.11%September 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 5.13% Core PCE inflation: 2.84% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.11%October 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 4.83% Core PCE inflation: 2.90% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.29%November 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 4.65% Core PCE inflation: 2.87% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.32%December 2024 Effective fed funds rate: 4.48% Core PCE inflation: 2.90% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.30%January 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 4.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.81% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.40%February 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 4.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.82% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.42%March 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 4.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.56% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.33%April 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 4.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.68% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.24%May 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 4.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.79% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.31%June 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 4.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.83% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.30%July 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 4.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.84% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.38%August 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 4.33% Core PCE inflation: 2.85% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.38%September 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 4.23% Core PCE inflation: 2.82% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.37%October 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 4.08% Core PCE inflation: 2.70% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.31%November 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 3.88% Core PCE inflation: 2.72% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.27%December 2025 Effective fed funds rate: 3.73% Core PCE inflation: 2.87% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.24%January 2026 Effective fed funds rate: 3.64% Core PCE inflation: 2.94% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.31%February 2026 Effective fed funds rate: 3.64% Core PCE inflation: 2.96% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.30%March 2026 Effective fed funds rate: 3.64% Core PCE inflation: 3.11% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.34%April 2026 Effective fed funds rate: 3.64% Core PCE inflation: 3.08% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.38%May 2026 Effective fed funds rate: 3.63% Core PCE inflation: 3.16% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.45%June 2026 Effective fed funds rate: 3.63% Core PCE inflation: 3.04% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.29%July 2026 Effective fed funds rate: 3.63% Core PCE inflation: 3.00% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.25%August 2026 Effective fed funds rate: 3.63% Core PCE inflation: 3.03% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.29%September 2026 Effective fed funds rate: 3.75% Core PCE inflation: 3.12% 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.35%2% objective

Lead–lag: federal funds rate and core inflation

Pearson r between a month's change in the effective funds rate and the change in 12-month core PCE inflation the stated number of months later, since 1990. A negative value at long leads is what tightening that works would look like; the Fed also raises rates because inflation is rising, which pushes short leads positive. ★ marks an interval that excludes zero after allowing for persistence.

Months later06121824
Pearson r0.12★−0.02−0.18★−0.06−0.02
95% interval0.02 to 0.22−0.13 to 0.08−0.28 to −0.08−0.17 to 0.05−0.12 to 0.09
Matched months441435429423417

Five leads are tried, so one interval excluding zero could appear by chance. Timing is not causation: oil, supply shocks and fiscal policy move inflation too. The topic page has the full correlation matrix and the QE and QT evidence.

Predefined screens

Inflation risk screens

These are transparent thresholds, not a prediction or an automated trading signal. Each compares observations from the published snapshot.

Below watch line

Near-term price pressure

Latest three SA monthly CPI changes annualize to 4.6%, versus 3.7% over 12 months.

Serving rows: 48c5926a-3736-5488-9299-fbcb53711663, a1e8ac94-ed3b-5a77-a682-3c549136fead, 9c4c381b-818d-5109-9100-d79470be116d, 2ac02c77-3a58-5e4f-9719-276d22cc32f3
Triggered

Sticky services concentration

Core services, including shelter, account for 1.904 percentage points of 3.7% headline inflation.

Serving rows: 4ae8010c-7098-5ca7-b8da-3b46572b8e61, 2ac02c77-3a58-5e4f-9719-276d22cc32f3
Triggered

Oil cost shock

WTI oil averaged +52.1% from Sep 2025 to Sep 2026.

Serving rows: b37030f2-46b2-50db-b949-aa48a6f8670c, b7a77d19-4cee-52b3-b921-ca03ba57a267
Below watch line

Labour demand cooling

JOLTS openings changed +2.3% over 12 months through Aug 2026.

Serving rows: b713dc9c-1ee2-51ff-a86e-e2fb6c78d246, f2588321-8873-52bc-8ceb-def4d0937a38

A historical statistical baseline

One-month-ahead headline CPI

Oct 2026 · 12-month CPI inflation3.72%

Empirical 80% error band: 3.37% to 4.07%. Rolling-origin mean absolute error: 0.23 percentage points across 35 historical forecasts.

Same-month historical benchmark: predicting next month's inflation equals this month's produced a mean absolute error of 0.23 pp on the same 35 test months. AR(1) error reduction versus persistence: +0.4%. A negative value means the simpler benchmark performed better.

This AR(1) baseline uses only past headline inflation from the latest snapshot; the attribution release selector does not change it. Its band is the 80th percentile of absolute errors in an expanding-window historical backtest, not a probability guarantee. This uses the snapshot's values, not a reconstruction of what was known at each historical release. It does not incorporate future oil, jobs or Fed decisions, structural breaks, publication revisions or causal effects.

Audit trail

Source and interpretation rules

Published refresh4523f1d2-40c6-52a4-b857-e523536583f3
Dataset versionus-inflation-eb32963698e74efd
Loaded UTC2026-10-14 17:11:40Z

Primary sources: BLS CPI, BLS JOLTS, BLS employment, EIA WTI and New York Fed EFFR. Source time series are pinned from FRED mirrors; CPI effects are the BLS publication values. See the topic charts and exports for exact observations and source URLs.

View copyable matched evidence